The SoapBoxers

I have had the pleasure of experiencing Niagara Falls twice.  The first time was in 2001 on a solo trip – a stopover of just a few hours.  The second time was a honeymoon trip in 2004 – a considerably longer stay.  In 2001, I was on a trip from Illinois out to the baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York.  At some point, I realized that Niagara Falls was about 20 minutes out of the way.  I didn’t have a huge burning desire to visit Niagara Falls, but it was so close that it seemed silly not to make a side trip.  I was driving from Cooperstown, NY to Sandusky, OH that day, so I didn’t have a lot of time for Niagara Falls.

I was completely blown away.  The Falls have an awesome power.  I stood near the Falls, simply gazing at them for the longest time.  Even more incredible is the fact that much of the water from the Niagara River is diverted into a hydroelectric plant, lessening the amount of water that goes over the Falls.  In spite of this, it was still the most fascinating thing I have ever seen.  An interesting note is that Niagara Falls is the honeymoon capital of the world … and also the suicide capital of the world.

Of course, there is more to do than simply watching the Falls.  First and foremost, take a trip to the Canadian side.  Because of the geography of the Falls, the view from the Canadian side is much better.  From the US side, you’re kind of looking over the Falls from an awkward angle.  From the Canadian side, you’re looking straight into the teeth of the Falls.  The difference is night and day.

The most famous tourist attraction is probably the Maid of the Mist boat ride.  The boat takes you up to the very edge of the Falls (at the bottom, of course).  You eventually get close enough that the Falls pushes the boat away from the Falls and back toward where you came.  Each passenger is given a keepsake plastic raincoat (of the thin variety), and you’ll need it.  You’ll still get wet, though.  Another neat thing right at the Falls in the Journey Under the Falls.  This is a tunnel that actually allows you to walk under the Falls.  At one point, you actually view the Falls from behind.  There are also some other water-based activities in the area.  We took a jet boat ride through the rapids.  It was fairly pricey, but was a pretty cool experience.  You can also dine at a restauant high above the Falls or take a helicopter ride above them.

If you want some of the toursity type of activities, you are definitely in luck.  There are two Hard Rock Cafes (one on the US side, one on the Canadian side), a Planet Hollywood, a Hershey’s store, and a multitude of other stores and attractions (including a Ripley’s Believe It or Not and a few museums).  Of course, there are a large number of stores that sell souvenirs, so you needn’t worry about walking away empty handed.  And if you really want some big city thrill, Toronto beckons.  If you’re a history buff, there is quite a bit of history in the Niagara Falls area.  One example is Fort Niagara.  Fort Niagara is one of the oldest continously operated military bases in the US, dating back to 1726. 

I’ll warn you up front that photography can be a challenge.  The spray from the Falls tends to get the camera lens wet very quickly, leading to blurry photos.

USA Today is reporting that GM will shut down 15 of its plants for 9 weeks between May and July.  GM has a total of 21 plants.

Clearly, by any measure, GM is in a world of hurt.  At the end of 2008, they had a book value (assets – liabilities) of  -$85 billion.  This number has been sinking even lower during 2009 as they chew through bailouts funds given to them by the government.

Here are a few things that will help put this into perspective a bit.

1. If GM were to begin making $10B in profits annually – something they have never done in their history) -starting in 2009, it would take 9 years until the balance sheet was positive.  A more realistic (but still overly optimistic) expectation of $5 billion in profits would result in a positive balance sheet in 17 years.
2. If you, and each of the 300 million residents of the USA, were to give GM a check for $283, this would just barely wipe out the $85 billion in negative equity.

I’d love to see GM turn things around, but they are quickly running out of time (and money).  If GM still exists at the end of 2010, I think it will either being a division of a Japanese manufacturer or it will be a much smaller GM.

We have a card with HSBC that gives us 1% cash back on all purchases and 2% back on weekend purchases.  We’ve started charging a lot of things so that we get the cash back.  Note: we have not changed our spending patterns because of the availability of credit on the card; we simply use the card for purchases they we need to make anyway (such as diapers for the young ‘un).  We pay off the entire balance every month.  A credit card should never be used as an excuse for reckless spending. On the face, it’s a pretty cool card.  We’ve had quite a few negative experiences with the card, though.

Telemarketers

Soon after getting the card, we started getting telemarketing calls.  My wife is listed as the primary cardholder, so they would always ask for her.  When I would ask what the purpose of the call was (my standard question to weed out telemarketers) they would refuse to tell me.  The only wa y we knew that it was HSBC is that we kept track of the number, which we were later able to determine was HSBC, due to subsequent calls.

When my wife actually did answer the phone, she would ask for the purpose of the call, and the telemarketers would completely clam up and not tell her, either.  This was really bizarre.  I have encountered a lot of strange sales pitches over the years, but a sales call during which the caller doesn’t want to talk about the product or service they are selling is definitely a new trick.  After talking to a manager and threatening to cancel the card if these calls did not stop, they calls eventually stopped.  It’s almost as if these folks were in training and dealing with human beings for the first time.

Wrong name

HSBC had a security breach (widespread, not just us) and issued new cards with new numbers.  My wife’s card looked great.  My card, on the other hand, did not.  My name was backwards (Public Q. John instead of John Q. Public).  As someone with a background in IT, it amuses me that they managed to someone get one name right and the other name wrong – indicating that they do not have a particularly consistent process.

My wife called to get this problem fixed.  She’s the primary cardholder, so she gets to have all the fun dealing with HSBC.

The person she talked to seem to struggle to understand the actual problem at first.  This seems a bit odd, since my wife understood it fully in the three seconds I took to explain it to her (“hey, my name is backwards on the credit card”) – shouldn’t someone in the credit card industry be able to grasp this concept?

Finally, he agreed to send a new card, and then stated that he was going to activate the new cards and cancel the old ones.  Thus began another frustrating exchange for my wife, who pointed out that he should not do this, since this would cause me to be without a card.  The HSBC person said that I would be able to use the new card.  It took my wife a long time to point out that I would not be able to use the new card, since the name on the card did not actually match my name.  Sure, logically a merchant might decide that I am indeed the correct person, but they would be well within their rights to reject the card because the signature doesn’t match the name.

Can we sell you more stuff while we’re fixing our goof?

So I finally get the new card with the correct information and call to activate it.  For some reason, I can’t use the automated method and get dumped to a human.  (sigh).  During the activation, she tries to sell me a credit protection product.  I politely tell her I’m not interested and just want to activate the card.

As she is cancelling the old card, she tries once again to sell me this product, which causes me to get a bit upset with her and tell her that she is really not providing good customer service, and that she should just perform the service that I am actually asking for.  &^%%^$%##$@()(*, I already told you once that I am not interested.  I spend a lot of money with your card.  Are you trying to alienate me on purpose?  No means no.

Paranoid fraud alert

We’re at the mall this past weekend and hit Target and a few other stores.  We use the card a total of five times before it starts getting denied.  It turns out that they had flagged out account for suspicious activity.

Target was a fairly big charge, but not substantially larger than what we spend in typical trip.  We always spend a fair amount at Target, because it is our main place to shop.  We have a toddler, and Target is our main supplier of diapers, baby wipes, baby clothes, etc (which can really add up in a hurry).

The other four charges were pretty small charges (one was at Taco Bell).  All of the stores are places where we have repeatedly used the card in the past.  Additionally, the two locations where the card was denied were also places were we often shop.  (Why did I try at a second store after being denied at the first store?  I’m an optimist and assumed that Barnes and Noble had a problem with their card reader.  Nope, the card reader is fine – the card was the problem.)

At this point, I’m really not sure what was so suspicious about the activity.  The total dollar amount was well within our normal spending patterns, and all of the stores were places we had shopped before.

In closing

Needless to say, we’re looking for a new card.  Has anyone had good expereinces?  We’re looking for something with cash back, rather than airline miles or other “rewards”.

UPDATE: I have recently been contacted by someone from the HSBC executive office.  He is interested in taking a look at this situation and determining why these issued occurred.  I haven’t had a chance to respond to him yet.  I do appreciate the fact that HSBC is looking at this as a learning opportunity.  I will update this post with future developments.

SUBSEQUENT UPDATE: read the exciting conclusion to the saga.

A few unusual stories were making the rounds last week. I picked a few of them to highlight.

The saga of Octomom

Nadya Suleman has filed a trademark application for the term “Ocotomom”. She intends to use it in conjunction with baby products and a TV variety show.

I’m not even sure that she has a valid claim to the trademark. I believe the term originated from the media, not from Suleman herself. Thus the reporter who first coined the term could probably claim prior use and invalidate Suleman’s claim.

Second, and more troubling for Nadya is that people aren’t having a particularly positive reaction to her situation, and this would inhibit her ability to cash in with the trademark. I simply don’t see a lot of companies who will be jumping at the chance to hitch their wagons to her star.

Fir goodness sake

A Russian man was diagnosed with lung cancer. He had an operation to remove a tumor from his lung. Doctors were stunned when they removed a two inch fir tree from the man’s lung.

The prevailing theory is that the man inhaled a seed at some point, and that it sprouted with the moist can carbon dioxide rich lungs.

While having a fir tree lodged in your lung isn’t the best thing in the world, it’s a whole lot better than having lung cancer.

Money back

In 2005, Deere and company pledged to create 300 new jobs in the state of Iowa and received seven million dollars in tax credits for creating the jobs. The jobs were created, but in the current economic situations, Deere is not sure that it will retain the jobs through 2010 (as required by the agreement) and has offered to refund $1.8 million to the state.

I do realize that Deere probably doesn’t have much leverage in this situation – if they break the agreement, the state very likely has the ability to pursue some sort of repayment. However, the fact that a company is offering to pay back money before the state even asks for it seems a bit unusual. Far too often, it seems that companies fight tooth and nail to keep money that they aren’t entitled to.

We always had red (Farmall, International, Case IH) on the farm when I was growing up, but I have always considered Deere to be a good corporate citizen.

Staff writer and golf fanatic Johnny Goodman (not his real name) shares his experience at the 2009 Masters.

This year I made my first trip to the Masters golf Tournament in Augusta Georgia. As a fan and player of the sport, this was on a short list of things I really wanted to do at least once in my lifetime.

I attended the weekend action. Your typical day for a “patron” starts by getting up at dark thirty in order to arrive at the gate of your choice by no later than seven in the morning. This assures you will be near the front of the line to get a prime viewing spot on the course. Most of the spectators bring small chairs (ones with arm-rests are not allowed) and will place them strategically in a spot where they want to see the action.

In the event you didn’t get your chair where you wanted, no worries, this is the Masters! If a chair is not occupied, you are welcome to sit in it and watch the action, of course if the party owning the seat returns, you are politely asked to remove yourself and find another available seating arrangement.

After placing your chair in the morning, it is off to the merchandise tent, the concession stand to pick up a pimento cheese sandwich, or just a chance to walk the course.

The Main Merchandise tent is located near the clubhouse. Needless to say it is a magnet for the patrons once they get on the grounds of Augusta National. The selection is tremendous, the traffic is even more so. Yours truly spent a smooth $1500 to fill a significant order placed by friends and family members.

The Concessions are maybe the best deal going anywhere in golf. The prices have not changed much in years. Beers are $2. Sandwiches are anywhere from $1.50 to $2.50. A $7 ballpark hotdog…. not here at the Masters.

The course itself is indescribable, but I will try. Television coverage does not do it justice. I will admit that the folks at CBS do an absolutely outstanding job of capturing the beauty and angles which best exemplify the course and the topography of the site, while maximizing the golf action. The course is much hillier than you would imagine. High Def TV helps to show it, but there are a number of holes that will have elevation changes of 60-100 ft or more from tee to green. The greens were smaller than I expected, as the television coverage does make them look larger than they are in person.

I have been to numerous sporting events in my life, and none are better run than the Masters. This is not just a major golf tournament, it is an event. Actually it is more than just an event….it is everything that is good about golf – beautiful scenery, a difficult course, good friendly people at every turn, and good manners…with exception of the “streaker” who found his way onto the course on Sunday. At any other place this would have been a big deal, complete with a bunch of clapping, hollering and the like …. but…. here at Augusta, the Patrons remained quiet while security personnel tackled the gentleman and removed him from the course. Nope, the Green Jacketed members already have a “Tradition unlike any other” and they aren’t about to let someone else start one on their watch.

It seems that we live in a world with very different strata of financial awareness.  On the one side, the savvy investors of today have all the information they could possibly need at the tip of their stylus, and they know how to use it.  On the other side, there are a lot of people who do not use some of the most fundamental tools at our disposal.  I really wish that high school would focus a bit more time on financial awareness, considering how important a life skill it is.  Here are a few tips that I’d like to share with today’s youths (and anyone else who might need them).

Balance the checkbook

I know a lot of people never balance their checkbook, preferring to leave a “buffer” amount in checking to cover any mistakes that may occur.  Some people don’t even bother to make an attempt to keep track of transactions.  How often does someone in front of you pay with a debit card and not take the receipt?  Maybe the person has a great memory and remembers that McDonalds was $6.14 … but it’s more likely that the transaction is never getting logged.

Balance the checkbook every month, to the penny.  You’ll avoid overdrafts and you’ll sleep a little better knowing that your finances are in order.

If you have have never done this, if would take a bit of practice.  However, the process is pretty straightforward, and you should be able to master it pretty quickly.  Basically, it is a 3 step process.

1. Write down the balance on your last bank statement
2. Add any deposits that have been made (or processed) since the date of that statement
3. Subtract any checks (or debit card transactions) that had not yet been processed by the bank on the data of the statement

Voila – you should have the balance that appears in your checkbook.  It might take some practice, and you might spend time tracking down occasional mistakes (especially if you have sloppy handwriting like me) but if you keep on top of it, it will quickly become second nature.  If you use software such as Quicken, it’s even easier.

Understand the tax system

I’m not suggesting that  everyone become a tax expert.  However, it would be nice if more people had a grasp of fundamental concepts such as income, deductions and credits.  Start with the easiest form – the 1040EZ.  Interestingly enough, the IRS actually published instructions for all of the tax forms.  You might be surprised at how thorough the instructions are.  Push aside tax phobia and read the instructions.

Understand unit prices

Until recently, it was a safe bet that the largest package of an item resulted in the lowest price per unit.  However, I have noticed some instances lately where this is not the case.  If you’re not good at mental math, bring along a calculator to help you determine if the 12, 18, 24, or 30 pack of Charmin is the best deal.  If you think that a caculator would kill the cool persona you have been grooming for years, pull out your cell phone and use the built in calculator – you can pretend that you’re texting someone.

Other topics

These are just the tip of the iceberg.  Once you get this far, charge onward.  Learn about mortgages (What are points?  How much more will I pay for a 15 year mortgage vs. a 30 year?  How are property taxes calculated), retirement plans (Roth vs. 401(k)), and the stock market (How much risk should I have at my age?  What is an indexed fun?).  Money is an important component of today’s society – those who work to improve their knowledge of personal finance have a leg up on those who do not.

Some exciting things are around the corner.

I’ve approached a couple of folks to write periodic guest articles for the blog.  I don’t have have a firm schedule on how often these will appear, but I think they will add an interesting spice to the blog.  These guys are good writers, and I think you will enjoy their work.

I have also contacted several more people about writing “a day in the life” articles.  I have received some positive responses, so hopefully you will be seeing some interesting insights into other careers in the near future.

Bob Morris yawned and took a bite out of his grape jelly donut. It had been sitting on his desk since morning, and it was stale. Bob had barely made it to his desk when the call came in. A hiker had stumbled across two bodies in the woods. Bob had been at the scene all day, and was now buried in paperwork related to the murder/suicide.

Ann Marks was walking briskly toward Bob’s desk; she was clearly agitated about something.

“The ME is still working on the autopsy, but he noticed something immediately,” she said. “Although the stab wounds were made by very similar knives, they were not made by the same knife. “

“There is an imperfection in the blade of the knife we found on the scene,” she continued. “This imperfection is present in the girl’s wound, but not in the man’s”

“What are you saying, Ann? That he stabbed her with one knife, then stabbed himself with a second knife and then tossed it into the woods before he died? That seems rather unlikely.”

“Or perhaps the perp took the knife with him,” she responded.

Bob spit out his coffee. “The WHAT?” he exclaimed. “The guy’s hands were clenched around the bloody knife. It seems pretty unlikely that someone could have planted it there. Obviously he is the perp.”

“Oh, I agree that he killed the girl, Bob. I just don’t think he committed suicide. Doc also thinks the that trajectory of the wound would have been an unlikely path for a self inflicted stabbing.”

“Ah, shit” muttered Bob.  “This one seemed so nice and clean.  Sounds like his partner might have killed him after they stalked and killed the girl.  Sick bastards.  Heck, he probably did the world a favor by killing Hepner.  It hardly seems worth the effort to track him down.”

“The only problem with that, Bob, is that Hepner probably won’t be his last kill.”

“OK, we need to track down all the known associates of this Hepner asshole.  Maybe someone will have an idea who his accomplice might have been.”

“Hepner doesn’t have much of a criminal record, but I’ve also put in a request with the IRS.  The guys have a file on everyone.”

A short while later, Ann’s IRS contact got back to them.  Hepner had been a bit of a drifter – he had lived in eighteen cities in seven states in his life.  The IRS file contained information on a multitude of different employers over the years.  Bob sighed.  This day was about to get even longer.  He split the list with Ann and they began the tedious task of calling each employer to track down people who may have known Hepner, beginning with the most recent.  The progress was slow – Hepner had been a real loner with no close friends.  Many employers had difficulty remembering that he was employed at their business.

Hundreds of miles away, the lion was sharpening his claws and focusing on his next prey – another predator who was about to fall within his grasp.

Image via Wikipedia

This is the first in the “A day in the Life” series. The series will pop up periodically on Thursdays. Most of the articles will be shorter than this. However, I did not feel that I can edit very much out of this tale without losing value for the reader.

Walrus served as an air traffic controller in Chicago from 1971 – 1981. Today, he shares a slice of that life with us.

A night day in the life of Air Traffic Control Specialist (ATCS), Chicago’s Enroute Control Center, Iowa City and Joliet High Sectors.

The ATCS responsibilities: Safe, orderly and Expeditious flow of air traffic into and out of controlled airspace.

Your day begins again Sunday at 9 pm; you prepare for work, eat breakfast, kiss the wife and kids good-bye and drive to your day job. This is the second time you’ve been to work today, as you worked the Sunday day shift, and as you pass through the lighted guard gate you realize that it’s only been 8 hours since your last shift ended. But, then this is the last day in your normal workweek.

The job has its pros and cons. Pros – the cafeteria’s open 7x24x365 so there’s always hot food and beverages. There’s a Marine at the gate so no one can repossess the Corvette and the local cops can’t chase you in to the compound. When you fly the ARTCC clubs plane, your brothers provide the best radar traffic service money can buy. Cons- well the night cooks don’t get 5 stars. The accommodations look and feel real old at night, like the inside of a Denny’s restaurant at midnight on their 20th anniversary. And most controller smoke like chimneys.

This is a real 7x24x365 job, and your work week’s normally 2 swing shifts, 2 day shifts and a midnight shift with your day off rotating every week. These rotating days make it difficult to have a social life outside the Air Traffic community. Most normal folks work M-F and have their nights and weekends off, that’s all of your family and most pre-ATC friends.

You’ll sync up with your real life about 4 times a year. 2 weekends, back to back, every 8 weeks and you Never Never Never answer the home phone on your scheduled weekends off. The guy with the most influence in your life is the supervisor who manages the work schedule. Thank god, that’s your boss because he gets your team most of the national holidays off. How – black magic, bribery, blackmail, murder? I don’t know, but I love that man.

The shift starts at 11 pm, normally Sunday midnights are easy work unless weather makes it a fright, the biggest concern will be that Monday morning rush starts before the end of this shift when the team will be the most tired. The flying public likes to get a jump on the workweek, and O’Hare, Midway, Milwaukee and a host of small airports will all start having departures around 5am. Fortunately most of the arrivals that support those departing flights come in before 3 am. Maybe we’ll do some On The Job training and let the Aside try his hand on that rush.

Proper etiquette requires you to relieve the position your assigned before the 11 pm shift start. You grab your first cup of coffee, get the Flight Service weather briefing and head to the boards. An ATC specialist cannot leave his position until relieved and if manning a position that doesn’t have relief, OT is mandatory and someone stays until you have 10 operational hours logged, your relief arrives or someone takes over your sector. Whiners go to the watch commander, who’ll remind them that OT is mandatory and he’ll tell you when your 10 hours are up. Being reliable and on time is the key to keeping your work partners happy, that’s the team that you always relieve. The team relieving you is never the team that you always relieve.

The team doesn’t like working with strangers (non-team members) and I don’t either, so while at the briefing desk, you find out who’s on the shift with you and pray it’s mostly your teammates. My alias is Walrus (aka GI) and tonight I’m working with Hotrod and Flipper, I see EZ’s here and so is White Ryno, Whiffer and FanMan. Popeye’s got the con and the watch commander is, well let’s hope it doesn’t matter.

There are 13 ARTCC centers spanning the entire US. Toronto, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City and Denver surround Chicago center. Chicago ARTCC controls air traffic from Canada to Tennessee from Detroit, Michigan to Lincoln, Nebraska. It’s divided geographically East and West and stratified Hi-Alt and Low Alt. (@ 24,000 feet), with a specialized sector (Chicago Terminal) feeding inbound traffic to Chicago O’Hare.

Normally there’s a supervisor in each of these 5 areas but on mid’s usually only 1 supervisor is staffed and one (HMFIC) watch commander is on duty. Each of the areas is broken into sectors of airspace, usually with an inbound or outbound specialty.

There are 4 staffed positions to a sector (about 100,000 sq miles of airspace). The primary position is the Radar controller, he owns the responsibility for one sector (normally) and its operations, The second is the boom Coordinator, always another journeyman position who works between the adjacent Radar sectors and controllers doing handoffs and helping to maintain order during heavy traffic periods. This is a Sunday midnight so the boom position will not be manned until the day shift starts at 6am. The sector second in command is the manual controller; this often is not a journeyman controller and he may not be certified on radar. Its better when he is, because he’s your break relief. The lowliest position on the team is your Aside (assistant controller). This is always a trainee and they can be as helpful as a spilled cup of coffee. Under some conditions (i.e. computer is down) they’re far more useful. But they’re energetic and trusting as a new puppy and they miraculously stay awake all night. You are responsible for their actions and are their OJT instructor for this shift. But Never Never Never trust an Aside.

Back to this shift change and control take-over, if there’s a new face you do introductions and establish their abilities and capabilities because you’re taking responsibility for them, too. If you are not sure, you relieve them first. This is an insult but then they have no recourse. You look over the adjacent sectors to see who you are working with tonight. If you see something out of order you point it out, if it isn’t resolved to your liking you get the watch commander. Then you do as he orders PERIOD, you’re now riding on his responsibility, one does this rarely and a trainee who does this is unlikely to get certified.

The current radar controller provides a briefing on the live traffic already in the sector; any traffic scheduled is loaded in plastic strips and stacked in the manual man’s bays (the next 30 minutes). He points out any known conflicts that he’s approved (i.e. Descending / crossing traffic), aircraft assigned the same altitude, special military traffic or radar vectors being given to targets. He gives you heads up on any mechanical issues with the gear, radio, radar, known issues with local weather, airports etc. He’ll advise if the manual man or the Aside are/were competent (especially if you’ve just insulted his teammates) and also lets you know if some condition(s) will impact you in the next few hours (i.e. weather).

You look over his situation determine that there are no air traffic conflicts or emergencies, and you accept responsibility for control and then take his seat. This is expressed verbally and you don’t make any wisecracks knowing that every word is being recorded. The relieved controller watches your boards for the next 5 minutes, making sure you have the picture before he leaves. The hotshots make wise cracks about breathing down their necks and that’s a cue to leave immediately!

However, when stating you’ve got it, it becomes your ticket and your ass on the line. You make sure you can contact all aircraft under your control. (i.e. UA282_Chicago_ Radio Check/ Chicago_ UA282_Read U 5by5) A stuck mike or mis-tuned frequency can ruin a perfectly good day. You punch on the communications access lines (row of instant communication buttons overhead) and announce the change in controller on this sector. You communicate with the sectors on both sides and above or below you. You also do the same thing with the adjacent center(s) that feeds you traffic or whose traffic you feed and any major TRACONs (Airport Approach Controls) . Remember you don’t like working with strangers and that means voices and operating initials you don’t recognize.

You read, check and recheck all the strips on the board, check weather at the airports serviced by your sector. Make sure the radar, radio and the con-rack are all functional. You’ve checked all the communications line and by now you’ve also checked the computer system. You say the controller’s prayer (Serenity) under your breath and hope the computer stays up all shift.

So now you have the radar scope and you worry through the manual controller and his relief and the Assistant controller and his relief. Once that completes and all the shrimp boats are made (little plastic boats used to track targets), all the strips are stacked and prioritized, with all conflicts identified you’ll find the first half hour has flown by.

You now settle into your normal routine, it’s about 11:15 pm, the first coffee is depleted and you send the midnight Aside for more coffee and maybe something to snack on. (Testing his ingenuity, you never offer money) Then you and the manual man work out a break rotation and someone starts that rotation. To heck with the Aside he makes his own breaks and had better never leave your sector unmanned. The unspoken code, rudeness is for Asides and respect to all Radar-men.

Tonight’s weather at ORD 20000 O/20/220/10/30.10 so there’s a 20,000 foot ceiling with visual operational conditions at the airport, 20 miles visibility light winds out of the southwest favoring Runway 22, the normal primary at O’Hare, and the barometric pressure indicates high pressure and it’s rising. You see that the Asides are being humorous, having entered the current weather in Nebraska as “Lincoln is Dead”.

What looks like an easy night, now gets complicated. They’re shorthanded because every Sunday is sick leave Sunday. So you’ll get the opportunity to operate a combined sector (200,000 sq miles) and have two additional staff. Great, I’ve another manual man and Aside to babysit. Now everyone has rotational relieve but me , the only radar man. Shit, it’s going to be a long night. !@#$%^&*()_

Hey, Aside get me a coffee with cream and sugar right Now! United262 squawk 3200 and ident. , say altitude, then turn right heading 270 climb and maintain FL230 report leaving FL220. NorthCentral412 cleared to Chicago O’Hare via V10 Vains direct descend and maintain 10,000 reduce speed to 350 knots, your traffic is 3 o’clock 28 miles opposite direction at FL220 report leaving FL 200. Learjet 10EC say your altitude, is the governor on board tonight? Hey Denver; who’s that traffic at on my boundary head on with United 262? I need a handoff ASAP otherwise you hold him, let me know if he’s descending /GI! Speedbird 312 Ident., hey, Chicago Approach over Vains direct O’Hare at 15 descending to 10 that’s Speedbird 312 slowed to 320 knots/ GI. Ok Denver I see UA1412@FL410, Branif308@FL390, Northwest686@FL330 all inbound to O’Hare, send them over to me/GI. Naval Airstation Glenview Tower instruct Marine Sledge & Flight cleared to NAS Miramar via 29 Palms direct Iowa City direct Tuba City direct, climb and maintain FL450 report out of FL200 ASAP, combat climb approved, and launch him immediately/GI! Denver did you say you saw United262, Ok here he comes/GI. United262 contact Denver center 185.25 goodnight. Hey Flipper (Aside) ask Denver about that flight of F16’s just off Glenview direct Tuba City at FL450. And do you have a strips for a departure off Dubuque to Midway? So did you like controlling air traffic for a while, Flipper?

Gotta love this adrenaline.

Aside, why is my coffee cold?

Monday morning you’d planned to work your ass off when the rush started at 5am, but your team leader shows up an hour early for his day shift and relives you as the flight plans build in the departure bays. So by 5:45 am you head to the cafeteria and have dinner. The rest of the team gathers one at a time over the next hour and at 7am it’s agreed to go to Chicago to breakfast club. That’s just 7 am beers after work. Whew what a week and now you have the next two days off. Heck the wife won’t be home from work until 5 pm tonight, bartender I’ll buy that next round.

So today was another great 16 hour day in the life of an ATCS, no hits, no errors and no one left on base, but it could be worse. At least tonight international tensions didn’t trigger a DEFCON5, locking the blast doors and cutting everyone off the coffee supply. Tomorrow you could be assigned a crash scene and be knee deep in the mess of an accident investigation. The cause, some circumstance within the scope of your Air Traffic Control Center. Or maybe you’ll have to transcribe recoding tapes for a team member who’s had a Near Mid Air. It could cost him his job, and you’ll provide the expert testimony at his hearing. He’s likely one of your best friends. Never tell them you want to be a watch commander when you grow up someday?

Yes, tonight today was a good day.

For your viewing pleasure I’d suggest the movie Pushing Tin. It was pretty accurate ATCS representation through about 1981. However, that was when Mr. Reagan and PATCO disagreed on the matter of my financial compensation and we parted ways. I understand they’ve made several improvements since I last put on a headset.

The rules:
Each player predicts the closing value of the Dow Jones industrial average at the close of day on December 31, 2009. Points are awarded on a 12-10-8-6-4-2-0 basis for being closest to the actual closing value. The score of all players on each team are added together, and the best team score wins.

I will update the contest every month, focusing on the actual rate of Dow rise or fall compared to the guesses. For example, if a player guesses a 850 point increase and the Dow increased 100 points in the first month, they would be on target. This relies on a false assumption that the market will move similarly in each month.

Note: this contest is for entertainment purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

The predictions:

Team Goliath

Team Goliath consists of three people who write blogs related to personal finance.

Trevor of Financial Nut
Why do I choose 8,400?  Though I do not necessarily agree with Keynesian economic theory, I do feel that some of this spending is going to create some jobs and allow for money to be injected back into the economy.  By this time I would imagine that many of the Obama Administration’s plans to deal with all of these “toxic assets” and to create employment in an increasingly dying economy will be in place.  Right now the plans are only being discussed and just barely being implemented.

In addition, recessions in the past haven’t lasted much longer than what we’ve had.  This one is, however, very unique and may be longer.

But at the end of the day, who really knows?! 🙂

Lazy Man of Lazy Man and Money
Although some suggest that much of the recent drop is psychological, I think that much can be explained by the large amounts of credit that were extended over the last 10-15 years. More money in the system allows earnings to rise – which results in a lower P/E ratio – making it easier for buyers to justify higher prices.

We’ll see what happens in a bad economy where the earnings drop not just due to the lack of buyers, but the lack of easy credit.

I do, however, think much of the damage is priced in now. Although I am not a currency expert, I think it will be important to watch the impact of the stimulus package on the dollar in the next 8+ months.

Heidi of Bankergirl brings a bit of sugar and spice to a group filled with snails and puppy dog tails. 
Based on historical data, we have yet to hit the low for this economic cycle. I think that sometime in the second quarter (or possibly early Q3) of 2009, the dow is going to hit its low. It will recover throughout late Q3 and into Q4, but it will land around the low-to-mid 8000 mark.

Hope I’m wrong – my job is much more secure once we are back up to around 10,000.

Team David

Team David consists of three people who have ordinary jobs and do not write about personal finance.

Peter Rabbit is an IT Auditor.
The last few reports on housing and the purchase of durable goods were very encouraging. These are lagging indicators when we enter a recession as well as when we come out of one. This signals to me that the worst may be behind us. By no means are we in a period of growth but we may have stabilized. Basically, I am betting that we have about 4 more days of 500 point gains sprinkled in the next few months. But otherwise you will see a lot of +100 and -100 point days that just pass time and wash each other out.

Phil Ossifer is a computer systems analyst and has recently launched the (not finance) blog Chunga Goes Wild
Stocks WON’T perform like they did over the last 80 years. Unique circumstances of that period are unrepeatable, e.g., post-Industrial Revolutionary growth, outcome from wars, political/demographic changes, etc.

Monetary policy will float us for a while, but also leads us toward a serious, long-term decline. We now have more debt than any nation; we have a negative savings rate – and yet we look to more spending for the answer. Over-consuming and under-producing is not sustainable!

Finally, analysis based on a few known factors like bad mortagages, trade deficits, and economic cycles are short-sighted. We are now in a complex, unpredictable, global system (think: Chaos theory). Cheers!

Black Hole is where logic goes to die.  Fittingly,  he works in human resources.
In the past month, the Dow has been on the incline, and I think it will be up and down (in small variances) throughout the year, but I think towards the end of the year it will climb a little more steadily.  Banks will become more stable than they are now,  and the economy is receiving such a boost monetarily that it will definitely turn around and quicker than other “recessions”. 

Free agent
The Soap Boxers will not be a member of a team, but I will be awarded points on the basis of my finish. Thus, a good showing by TCO can serve as a spoiler for one of the teams. Think of me as the guy in the middle of a game of “keep away”.
I personally believe that much of the recent drop in the market is due to psychological factors. A lot of really good stocks are getting beaten up. When the Dow was hovering around 6500, P/E ratios were at five year lows. This is a time to snap up some solid blue chip stocks at good prices. I think that there will be some slight corrections in the near future, but that we have hit bottom and that the market will turn the corner once spring is in full bloom. The positive energy of spring will improve the mindset of potential investors.

Submit your own guess in the comments sections. Invite your friends to compete against you. I will also track the guesses of commenters in the monthly update.  Only guesses made before April 30 will be included in the monthly updates (sorry, had to make the cutoff somewhere).

Join us tomorrow, as the Casual Observer takes a look at a day in the life of an air traffic controller.  The Walrus will be our guide.