Just One More Out

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With Peter Rabbit a hare busy this week, we’re swapping days. Fiction Friday will occur today and Carrots of Wisdom will be featured on Friday.

This is a bit of commuter fiction. The majority of the story was composed on the drive home from work on Tuesday.

Avery Miller threw his final warm up pitch. As the catcher returned the ball to him, he reflected on the enormity of the situation. Bottom of the ninth, one run lead, sacks jammed, division title on the line. This was the situation that called for a shutdown closer – a guy like the dominant reliever for the Gazelles, Antwon Stapleton. Unfortunately, Stapleton had gotten them into this mess, and his utter lack of command had forced the manager to turn the game over the Miller.

Miller took a deep breath, toed the rubber, and took a big stride toward the plate. The book on Miller was that he tended to nibble around the edges with breaking balls, so he cut loose with his best fastball. The ball took off like a missile, bound for the low, inside corner of the plate. Mark Irick of the Cougars was looking for the fastball and made solid contact. The ball soared high into the air down the left field line. The umpire twirled his finger to signify the home run. Avery cursed under his breath. The crowd roared in appreciation of the blast that propelled their team into the playoffs.

In the midst of the melee, Gazelle manager Spud Walker popped out of the dugout and headed for home plate, where he proceeded to argue that the ball was not a home run – rather, he said, the ball had drifted slightly to the left of the foul pole.

The umpires huddled briefly before heading to the instant replay booth. The crowd held its collective breath as the umpires reviewed the call. When they finally came back onto the field, they ruled that the ball was foul by inches. The crowd booed lustily.

Mark Irick readied himself for the next pitch, this time with a count of no balls and one strike. He tapped his bat against each of his spikes three times, in order to knock the imaginary dirt loose. He loosened and tightened his batting gloves. His routine finished, he stepped back into the batter’s box.

Miller shook off a couple of signs from his catcher before getting the call he wanted – a pitch outside the strike zone. He was hoping that Irick would be overaggressive and swing at the bad pitch. The former MVP was not fooled, however. The bat never left his shoulder as the pitched sailed past him for a ball.

Miller’s next pitch was a bit high and inside. Irick flinched a bit, but stood his ground in the box and watched to count go to 2-1. The next pitch was in the lower third of the strike zone, but was a bit more toward the middle of the plate than Avery would have liked, and Irick swung and drove the ball high and deep – but way foul.

Miller’s next pitch was outside by a half inch, and the count was full. With the bases loaded, Avery couldn’t afford a ball, so he was forced to throw in the strike zone. Irick fouled one pitch just out of the range of the third baseman and the next pitch was fouled into the crowd in back on home plate.

The stadium, in spite of the capacity crowd, was as quiet as a tomb – allowing Irick to focus intently on the pitches.

Miller took another deep breath before snapping off a 12-to-6 curve. As the pitch broke sharply, the bat entered the strike zone and launched the ball toward the deepest part of center field. David MacFarland raced toward the wall in a futile effort to catch up to the ball. Incredibly, he caught up to the ball as he reached the outfield fence. MacFarland timed his jump perfectly and extended his six foot four inch frame to its maximum extent. The ball hit the edge of his glove for a split second before popping back up into the air and falling to the ground. A moment later, MacFarland landed on the ground with a thud.

As the first Cougars runner crossed the plate, Mark Irick stood at home, spellbound by the play. As another runner raced toward the plate, Irick broke free from the trance and began to run toward first base.

Left fielder Brian Johnson raced to the ball and freed it from under MacFarland’s body. He set himself and gunned the ball toward first base. The first baseman stretched to catch the wild throw. He gloved the ball and tapped first base with his foot a split second before Irick crossed the base.

Since the play was a force out, the runs that had crossed the plate did not count. Avery Miller escaped the game with a save, and the Gazelles were playoff bound.

Stock Market Contest Update

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Back On April 15, we launched a Stock Market contest (click link to see insights from the participants) in which a team of Goliaths (personal finance bloggers) were matched up against a team of Davids (people who were not personal finance bloggers). At the end of July, the Dow stood at 9171.61 and had gained average 11.59 points during the course of the contest, making the Davids the favorites.

The market had its strongest August since 2000, and ended the month at 9496.28, up 324.67 for the month.

At the end of the day on April 14th (the 104th day of the year), the Dow was at 7920.18.

At the end of the day on August 31 (the 243rd day of the year), the Dow was at 9496.28.

This is a gain of 1576.10, or 11.34 points per day. If we assume that the market will contain to gain at exactly the same rate throughout the rest of the year (yes, a ridiculous assumption), the Dow will be at 10879.92 at the end of the year (+ 2959.74 from April 14).

How do our contestants stack up?

Team Player Player’s Guess Difference from projection
N/A Projected year end Dow 10879.92 0
David Peter Rabbit @ The Soap Boxers 9500 1379.92
No team Kosmo @ The Soap Boxers 8999 1880.92
David Phil Ossifer @ The Soap Boxers 8500 2379.92
Goliath Trevor @ Financial Nut 8500 2379.92
David Black Hole 8492.48 2387.44
Goliath Heidi @ Banker Girl 8400 2479.92
Goliath Lazy @ Lazy Man and Money 8232 2647.92

I also invited visitors to play along at home. Let’s see how they are doing.

Player Player’s Guess Difference from projection
Karchy 9777 112.92
Hilary 9500 1379.92
Jeff 7800 3079.92

Team David remains firmly in the lead at this point.  There are still four months remaining in the years, but Team Goliath would need a signficant downturn in the market in order to emerge victorious.

September Callups

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With Johnny Goodman out on assignment, I’m jumping in to bounce around the world of sports.

September Callup Time

Today marks the day when Major League Baseball teams can expand their rosters from 25 players to 40. Not all teams will call up an extra 15 players, though. Calling a player up to the major league starts his service time “clock”, which affects when they will become a free agent. Thus, the short term benefit of having the players in the major leagues for one month can be outweighed by the long term financial benefit of keeping him away from free agency for a full extra year.

However, September typically features the debut of a lot of players who are expected to contribute the following year. The teams get to see how the players adjust to playing major league competition, and the players get to play though a bit of the rookie “yips” in games that often don’t count for a whole lot.

For teams that are in playoff contention, the situation is much different. The expansion of rosters allows teams to add extra hitters to their bench and extra arms to the bullpen – making it possible for the bullpen to pitch more innings than normal in the throes of a pennant race.

On a related note, players acquired before midnight last night are eligible for postseason rosters.  (Confused about the fact that the trade deadline was a month ago?  Players acquired after July 31 must clear waivers first; players acquired earlier do not need to clear waivers.)  The NL West leading Dodgers acquired slugger Jim Thome from the White Sox and starting pitcher John Garland from the Snakes.  The Rockies countered by picking up pitcher Jose Contreras from the White Sox in exchange for prospect Brandon Hynick (a casual Facebook friend of mine).  Advantage to the Dodgers.

Rockies Update

My beloved Rockies just finished what I considered to be a critically important stretch that included seven games against the Giants and three against the division leading Giants. After taking three of four against the Giants, the Rockies took the first game from the Dodgers – pulling to within two games of the division lead in the process. Unfortunately, they lost the final two games of that series before being swept against the Giants in a series in the bay. The Rockies have fallen into a wild card tie with the Giants, setting up the potential for a great September race.

As for my favorite player, Troy Tulowitzki pushed his OPS (on-base-plus-slugging) over 1.000 for August on the strength of a homer and double in his August finale. After a dreadful start to the year, Tulo has record three straight months with a 1.000+ OPS.

Former Rockie Matt Holliday (now with the Cardinals) finished August with “only” a .963 OPS for the month, on the heels of a 1.150 OPS in July. Hidden by the arbitrary nature of the months of the calendar is a 24 game stretch beginning July 20 and ending August 15 in which Holliday posted a 1.355 OPS. While Holliday did manage to hit 7 homers during that stretch, it was the .474 batting average that was a major factor. The tricky thing for the Cardinals is whether or not they will be able to hammer out a new deal with Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras – or whether Holliday will test the free agent waters with a strong non-Coors season under his belt.

NFL

Fantasy Draft season is in full swing. This is a good sign that the NFL season in just around the corner.

On the positive side, we face a year without the “insight” of John Madden.

On the down side, my Minnesota Vikings gave $25 million to sign Brett Favre for two years. I’ve never been a fan of Favre, and his recent off-field antics have served to sour me on him even more. My plan is simply to ignore the NFL until it has been purged of Favre. I have really been focusing on baseball 365 days a year in recently years, anyway, so this should not be a major sacrifice.

College Football

College football also kicks off this weekend, highlighted by Iowa State’s Thursday night game against North Dakota State. I’m hopefully that Thursday’s game will be but the first step in a season that will end with a BCS Championship for my Cyclones.

Or maybe just a bowl.

The University of Michigan is making news for possible NCAA violations. Anonymous current and former players allege that the amount of time Wolverine players spent on football activities exceeded the limits set down by the NCAA. Michigan suffered their first losing season in more than 40 years in 2008, and this news can only be a distraction as they get ready to face Western Michigan in their maiden 2009 contest.

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