The SoapBoxers

Rough week last week for Johnny as lot of upsets spoiled my record against the spread. A bunch more toughies again this week.

Nebraska (-10.5) @ Kansas State – The Children of the Corn will either win big or lose. I go with the former. Huskers 35- K- State 17

LSU @ Florida (-9.5) Les Miles is the only coach at a major program in American worse than Mack Brown. FLA- 21- LSU 14

Minnesota @ Wisconsin (-22.5) – Lot of points here, but I think WI is ticked after last week. WI – 35- MN – 10

Indiana @ THE Ohio State (-28.5) Hoosiers have looked decent but OH St is a different team at home. OSU – 35- IN 10

Baylor @ Texas Tech (-3.5) Tech loses to IA St last week….eeeeeesh…..Robert Griffin is much better than Austin Arnaud. Baylor 35- TT 31

Alabama (-10.5) @ South Carolina – The Ol ball coach in a cover. Bama 27- SC 21

Arkansas (-7.5) vs Texas A&M – Aggies looked like dog last Thursday night. Ark 35- A&M 28

Michigan State @ Michigan (-5.5) – Denard Robinson for Heisman, unfortunately their defense is horrible. Mich 28- Mich St 27

Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (-8.5) Wow, ND still stands for no defense. Pittsburgh is not exactly an offensive juggernaut. Pitt 17- ND 14

Clemson @ North Carolina (-4.5) – North Carolina finally getting some players back. NC – 28- Clem 21

Utah (-4.5) @ Iowa State – My five star game of the week. Utah 42- Ia St 21

Colorado @ Missouri (-9.5) – Blaine Gabbert rolls! Mizz – 35- Col 14

Florida State @ Miami (-7.5) Remember when the entire country used to care about this game every year. Jacory at home is way better than Jacory on the road. Hurrigangsters 28- Fla St 21

USC @ Stanford (-7.5) – Both teams smarting after bad losses last week. USC has no defense, Stanford is better. Stan 28- USC 18

Arizona State @ Washington (-3.5) Who cares? Pitchforks up! ASU – 28- Wazoo 13

Yesterday, we previewed the American League playoff teams.  Today, we look at the National League.

Philadelphia Phillies – National League East Champions (97-65)

How did they get here:
The Phillies were 7 games out of first place on July 22.  Going 47-17 from that date through the end of the season locked up the division for the reigning National League champions.

Strengths:

• Rotation – Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt are a stunningly potent trio.  The 33 year old Halladay paced the National League in wins and innings pitched, and will pitch in the playoffs for the first time in his career.  While Cole Hamels never seems to rack up high win totals, it’s not due to lack of performance on his part.  He posted a 3.06 ERA – the third season of 3.40 or lower in the past 4 seasons.  Roy Oswalt is the new kid on the block.  After starting the season 6-12 with a stellar 3.42 ERA for Houston, he flourished in Philadelphia, going 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA.  All three guys pitched at least 200 innings.
• The big bats – Ryan Howard had an off year and still managed 31 homers.  Jayson Werth hit 27 homers while leading the National League in doubles (46).  He’s also a free agent at the end of the year – so he has extra incentive to perform in front of a national audience.  I’m not exposed to the east coast media, and perhaps he gets more coverage there – but Werth seems like a very under-the-radar star.  Chase Utley slipped a bit, but still posted numbers that are strong for a second baseman.  Carlos Ruiz put up a .302 batting average at catcher.

Weaknesses:

• Shortstop Jimmy Rollins fought injuries and saw his OPS decline for the 3rd straight season.  It’s probably too early to yell that the sky is falling … but there is reason for concern.
• 3B Placido Polanco doesn’t hit with the power most team expect from their third baseman.
• Paul Hoover sucks.

Player to watch:
Jamie Moyer.  There’s not really a young breakout player to keep an eye on, so let’s focus on the 47 year old 267 game winner.  Moyer won’t pitch in the first round, but might crack the roster later in the playoffs, as a lefty out of the pen.

San Francisco Giants – National League West Champions (92-70)

How did they get here:
The Giants finished the season strong – 45-29 in the second half and 19-10 in August and September. However, it would be prudent to give the Padres some credit. A stunning collapse by San Diego – including a 10 game losing streak – allowed the Giants to snatch the division from them. The Giants won a game against San Diego on the final day of the season – and clinched the division as a result.

Strengths:

• Rotation – Reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum’s 3.43 ERA ranks 4th among Giants starters – Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez all posted ERAs of 3.14 or lower. This is the best rotation in the playoffs. However, it may be worth noting that Bumgarner is a 21 year old kid with a total of 19 career starts.
• Hitters who rose to the occasion in limited roles. Rookie catcher Buster Posey made the most of his opportunity by batting .305 with 18 homers. Pat Burrell hit his 18 in just 289 at bats. Veteran players Aubrey Huff (26 homers) and Juan Uribe (24 homers) also had strong seasons.

Weaknesses:

• 3B Pablo Sandoval saw his number drop dramatically across the board. He hit .330 with 25 homers in 2009, but just .268 with 13 homers this year.
• An awful lot of players filled roles for the Giants this year. Only 1 outfielder (Andres Torres) got more than 500 at bats. Sure, some of the limited role players succeeded with their opportunities, but will the familiarity with teammates be there at critical junctures in the game?

Player to watch:
Buster Posey. 18 homers and a .305 average from a rookie CATCHER! Heck, he doesn’t even strike out very much. I was high on the kid when he was drafted, and I’m still a fan.

Cincinnati Reds – National League Central Champions (91-71)

How did they get here:
A 19-8 August, combined with an unexpectedly underperforming Cardinals team, allowed the Reds to claim the division title. They didn’t finish the season on a strong note, going 14-16 in their final 30 games.

Strengths:

• Hitting, top to bottom. SS Orlando Cabrera was the only regular to finish the season with an OPS lower than .758. MVP candidate Joey Votto hit .324 with 37 homers.
• Chemisty – This group should also have good cohesion, as everyone other than catcher Ramon Hernandez recording at least 494 at bats.

Weaknesses:

• Rotation – Only Bronson Arroyo (17) and Johnny Cueto (12) won as many as 9 games. Edinson Volquez served a 50 game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs, and wasn’t great after he returned – he’ll need to step up in the post-season in order to have this rotation match up with the other teams.
• Closer – Francisco Cordero’s notched 40 saves, but his 3.84 ERA and 11 decisions (6-5) are indications that he wasn’t as dominant as the Reds would have liked.

Player to watch:
22 year old Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman touched 105 mph on the radar gun. He had a bit of an up-and-down season in the minors before his call-up, but there have been more ups than downs. Chappy was used exclusively out of the bullpen late in the season, pitching just 13 1/3 innings.

Atlanta Braves – National League Wild Card (91-71)

How did they get here:
The Braves were in first place by 7 games on July 22, before fading and finishing 7 games behind the Phillies. Had the Padres beaten the Giants on the final day of the season, the Braves would have ended up in a tie for the wild card – but the Giants prevailed and punched playoff tickets for themselves and the Braves. The Braves were 14-16 in their final 30 games.

Strengths:

• Bullpen – Billy Wagner notched 37 saves and posted a 1.73 ERA. He led a bullpen corps that included 5 guys who pitched in at least 56 games and record an ERA below 3.00.
• Emotion – this is the final year for Braves manager Bobby Cox. Cox won more than 2500 games during a managerial career that dates back to 1978 – and 2149 of those wins were for the Braves. He took the team to the World Series 5 times, winning one title. He also holds the distinction of being ejected more times than any other manager in history (yes, they track this stuff), earning him the appreciation of his players. The players want to send Cox out on a high note.

Weaknesses:

• Hitting – there are some serious holes in this lineup. Chipper Jones, the heart and sole of the team for a decade and half, suffered a season ending injury. OF Nate McClouth was an All Star in 2008, but was the worst hitter on the team this year. Once promising SS Yunel Escobar was traded to the Blue Jays. Only one player, catcher Brian McCann, managed to hit 20 homers (he had 21). There are still some solid hitters in the lineup, but it’s not as scary as what other teams will put on he field.
• Rotation – Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA) and Tommy Hanson (3.33 ERA) should be able to hold their own with the other top guns, but the Braves lack the third elite arm that their opponents are going to be able to throw at them.

Player to watch:
21 year old outfielder Jason Heyward is one of the best prospects in the game and could become a household name with a strong performance.

Who is my choice? I’m going to go with the Phillies. They have the second best rotation of the 4 teams, and their offense is much better than the Giants.

This is a preview of the American League teams.  You can also see my thoughts on the National League Playoff teams.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays – AL East Champions (96-66)

How they got here:
The young Devil Rays team battled the veteran Yankees for the division title and emerged victorious. They were 42-32 in the second half, but just 15-15 in the last thirty games.

Strengths:

• Rising superstar David Price went 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA
• Three starters topped 200 innings pitched
• Closer Rafael Soriano notched 45 saves and posted a 1.73 ERA

Weaknesses:

• Aside from 3B Evan Longoria and OF Carl Crawford, nobody in the lineup really scares you. 1B Carlos Pena had 28 homers, but posted just a .196 batting average. Longoria and Crawford were the only regulars with a batting average higher than .263.
• The back end of the rotation has some holes.  Actually, once you get beyond Price, there’s a decent drop-off.

Player to watch:
Evan Longoria hit fewer home runs this year, but don’t be fooled – he’s one of the best young players in the game.

New York Yankees – AL Wild Card (95-67)

How they got here:
After a long duel with the upstart Tampa Bay Devil Rays, the Yankees lost the division race by a single game and ended up as the wild card. The Yankees were just 39-35 after the All-Star break, including 13-17 in September and October.

Strengths:

• Five players with 24 or more homers, led by 1B Mark Teixeira
• 21 game winner CC Sabathia and resurgent veteran Andy Pettitte both posted ERA below 3.50
• Closer Mariano Rivera remains one of the best in the game

Weaknesses:

• Only one regular with a batting average higher than .288
• Get deeper into the rotation, and there is a significant drop-off in talent level
• Derek Jeter is winding up the worst season of his career – and might be in significant decline

Player to watch:
2B Robinson Cano has always hit for good average (.309 career average is 12th highest among active MLB players), but has added a power stroke in the last few years, with 25 homer last year and 29 this year. That’s great production from a middle infield position – watch for the Yankees to become Cano’s team in the next few years.

Minnesota Twins – AL Central Champions (94-68)

How they got there: After a lackluster 46-42 record in the first half of the season, the Twins posted a 48-26 record in the second half to pull away in the division.

Strengths:

• Catcher Joe Mauer had his power numbers fall back to their normal levels, but continued to be the heart and soul of the team. He posted a .327 batting average and has the 3rd highest career batting average of any active player (also .327)
• DH Jim Thome popped 25 homers in just 340 at bats as he looks toward the end of a Hall of Fame career.

Weaknesses:
Nobody in the rotation is really a bona fide ace.  Journeyman Carl Pavano led the team with 17 wins – nobody else won more than 14.  Brian Duensing has looked promising (10-3, 2.62), but he has just 22 career starts under his belt.

Player to watch:
It’s seems like OF Delmon Young has been in the league forever, and many fans have already written him off as a bust. However, Young just turned 25 in September and took a significant step forward this year, hitting 21 homers to go along with a .298 batting average. There’s plenty of upside potential for Young, especially if he can take a few more walks.

Texas Rangers – AL West Champions (90-72)

How they got here: A 21-6 record in the month of June pushed them to a big lead, and they were never seriously challenged in the division race. They had the luxury of resting some players down the stretch to get them healthy for the playoffs (notably Josh Hamilton).

Strengths:

• Middle of the order hitters: OF Josh Hamilton led the league with a .359 batting average and hit 32 homers, DH Vlad Guerrerro resurrected his career with 29 homers, and OF Nelson Cruz contributed 22 homers in just 399 at bats.
• Rotation: C.J. Wilson finally got an opportunity to start and responded with 15 wins and a 3.35 ERA, while 24 year old Tommy Hunter went 13-4 with a 3.73 ERA. Veteran Colby Lewis overachieved to post a 3.72 ERA. Although mid-season acquisition Cliff Lee didn’t pitch as well as the Rangers hoped down the stretch, he’s still a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs and is the ace of the staff.

Weaknesses:
There are holes in the lineup. SS Elvis Andrus provided zero homers, and the Rangers also struggled to get offensive production out of the 1B and Catcher spots.

Players to watch:
I can’t settle on just one. OF Josh Hamilton is a great story – a former number one overall pick finally getting past his demons to break out as a superstar. 22 year old closer Neftali Feliz is one of the best young pitchers in the game. Elvis Andrus has struggled offensively, but he’s just barely 22 years old.

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Have you ever wondered why only two political parties are dominating the American political scene? In every other democratic nation of the world, there are multiple parties requiring coalitions to govern. Not so in the United states, where the only time cooperation is necessary is when the legislative and executive branches of the government are in separate hands.

There are several institutional reasons for the two party system in America. First of all, the United States is not a democracy, it is a democratic republic. This is important in that in a true democracy, the people are continuously involved in the governing process, such as in Switzerland where there are elections almost every week. Second, our elections are fixed by the calendar, not by events. In the socialist democratic nations such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom, any vote of confidence lost by the ruling party or coalition will result in a new election. Third, we have separation of our legislative and executive branches. In most democracies of the world, the legislature elects a prime minister who is the defacto executive of the country. Sure, the United Kingdom has the Queen and many nations have presidents, but these people are there to be the consistency rather than the power.

All of this still does not add up to a two party system. I believe that the United States falls into this habit (yes habit) based on our innate love of a stand up fight. We want just two people in the ring beating the snot out of each other. Everything we do for entertainment or even business is a one on one match. From sporting events like the BCS championship to the burger wars, we only concentrate on the top two. There are others out there, but all of the publicity goes to the top two with a slight mention of the also rans.

When this country was in its infancy, we had two parties; the Democratic-Republicans and the Federalist. After a few years, the Federalists dropped out and the Whigs came along. Just before the Civil ware, the Whigs collapsed and the Democratic-Republicans split into the Democrats and the Republicans. Most of the Federalists became Whigs when they lost several presidential elections in a row and were in a feeble minority in both houses. The same thing happened when most of the Whigs became Republicans.

The talking heads have always pointed out that a vote for a third party is a throw away vote. When you are talking pure ability to get elected, that may be true in the short run. A grass roots effort to fundamentally change an existing party can be devastating to that party’s power such as is predicted for the Republican party with the Tea party movement. But if neither major party supports even some of your basic values, then voting for the least bad is still a bad decision. It re-enforces the existing power.

It took 24 years for the Whigs to gain even a moniker of power after the Federalist collapse. It took 16 years of the Democratic-Republicans to recover from the Jackson Democrat revolt, which also resulted in the current parties.

There are plenty of options for you if you want to vote your platform, there are only two if you are voting for power.

Here are just a few of the ones I looked up, there are plenty more.

Modern Whig – http://www.modernwhig.org/
Green – http://www.gp.org/index.php
Constitution – http://www.constitutionparty.com/
Socialist – http://www.sp-usa.org/
Conservative – http://www.conservativepartyusa.com/
Libertarian – http://www.lp.org/
Communist – http://www.cpusa.org/

Woonsocket, R.I. (FNN)  A small Rhode Island software company is about to launch a product that promises to make many consumers’ dream come true.  Avenger Software Solutions will soon be releasing its Ouch! software for the iPhone and Android.  The app allows the user to send a surge of electricity to someone on the other end of a phone conversation.

Wolf Pascal, CEO of Avenger, described his company’s product to Fake News Network.  “The basic building blocks for Ouch! were taken from the WiTricity project at MIT.  What we’ve done is adapted this technology for use with cellular telephones.  We are able to draw electricity from the user’s mobile handset and send it wirelessly across the cellular grid.  When it reaches the person on the other end of the call, they receive an unpleasant, yet nonlethal electric shock.  The intensity of the shock is based on the remaining capacity of the user’s cell phone battery.”

In a related announcement, Avenger’s hardware division announced that they will be producing high capacity batteries for several smart phones.

Ouch! has drawn criticism from several telemarketer advocate groups, who fear that the software is unsafe at any speed.

“This software clearly has the ability to cause serious and permanent brain damage.  Avenger must be stopped at all costs,” commented an angry Graham Bell, head of the Center for Telemarketer Acceptance.

We spoke to Avenger’s head of testing, Frank Milgram.  He steadfastly refuted the claims made by Bell and his colleagues.  “Our testing has led to believe that there are absolutely no long term effects.  Would you like some coffee?  Our testing has led to believe that there are absolutely no long term effects.  Would you like some coffee?  Our testing has led to believe that there are absolutely no long term effects.  Would you like some coffee?”

While cell phone users will soon be reaping great benefits from Ouch!, the fact remains that the vast majority of telemarketing calls are made to landline phones.  Might a similar product make its way to landline users at some point?

“We’re definitely working on that,” replied Pascal.  “We have a prototype hardware device that could be attached to a landline phone.  However, at this point, we don’t feel that we could bring it to market at a price point that would be acceptable to consumers.”

Ouch! – coming to an App Store near you.

Brought to you by FNN – Feral, unbalanced.

Martin Kelly starts off  a month of guest fiction stories.  If you want your short story to be featured, send me an email at kosmo@observingcasually.com

There is nothing quite as pleasant as a cool bright fall day in the heartland of America. Make it a Saturday in a university town, and it gets even better. The band is playing, the people are gathering, many drinking too much, all eating too much. This was going to be a great season.

Coach Grendle had finally put together the best team in the league. Nine returning seniors, the two best freshmen in the state, a Heisman candidate at both running back Walter Sumpter and quarterback Jackie Shamacker and award candidates all over the defense. This was one last warm up before league play. The first two games had been against strong teams, one from the west coast and one from the deep south. Both wins were solid; 38-28 and 24-10. Today they faced the tech school from across the state. It was an annual gimme game that pleased the regents. It was nice to play at home this year, their stadium was small and old with no heating in the locker room, not like the newly renovated one hundred and ninety million dollar stadium for today’s game.

As each team lined up for the opening kickoff, Coach Grendle scanned the field. The Tech players looked so young and small. He spotted Coach Smackly on the far side line and gave him a grim look and a nod. Coach Smackly smiled and waved. This would be the only televised game for Tech, they were happy to be here even if they were thirty two point underdogs.

The kick off was a beautiful high arch. Wilson caught the ball and plowed straight ahead. It took four tech players to finally pull him down. Grendle’s proud offence jogged onto the field. Sumpter to the left for 14 yards followed by a quick slant from Shamacker to Wilson for 14 more, just as the planned. Grendle was taking notes, thing that were not quite perfect and need to be for league play. It was the third play that changed the world.

Sumpter took off straight up the middle. He had several of the big guys escorting him up the field. Five yards, then ten, before the Tech Safety caught him. The tackle was clean and should have been uneventful, except for the presence of the guard and center. A combined 500 pounds landed on Sumpter’s leg. Coach Grendle knew the leg was broken before the pile was untangled. There was a long delay as Sumpter was carried off of the field on a golf cart.

Grendle had worked through disasters like this in the past. He had five more running backs ready to go. Jackson was good, not as fast and not as strong as Sumpter, but still high quality. After a long break, the defense can usually get caught flat footed. Grendle signaled for a deep pass.

Shamacker dropped back in a smooth motion. Wilson was breaking free, but then another mistake. McMiller, the left guard stepped backward and stepped on Shamacker’s foot. Off balance McMiller and the Tech linebacker fell on Shamacker. His pass fluttered in a sickening arch directly to the Tech Safety who was guarding the Jackson as he left the backfield. There was no one between him and the end zone. Touchdown Tech, and another golf cart for the home team.

Coach Grendle saw many things in those few moments. This game they could still win, but the rest of the season was over. He would have to talk to Smackly after the game. Smackly was good friends with the retiring coach at A&I. Another losing season and the alumni will be calling for his head.