The SoapBoxers

It was an interesting night in my home state of Iowa last night.  In the Republican caucus, Mitt Romney eked out an eight vote win over Rick Santorum.  The order of finish was:

1. Romney
2. Santorum
3. Paul
4. Gingrich
5. Perry
6. Bachmann
7. Huntsman
8. Cain

I correctly predicted the 1-6 order of finish yesterday on another site of mine, Donkey and Elephant Show (I didn’t bother including Huntsman and Cain, as it was apparent that they would do very poorly).

Romney, Paul, and Santorum each had more than 20% of the vote and emerge as the front-runners.  Huntsman decided to skip Iowa entirely and focus on New Hampshire.  This ensured him of a poor showing in Iowa, but might endear him to the voters of New Hampshire.

Perry’s going home to think about things and figure out if there is a path forward.  Considering the fact that he made a huge media buy in Iowa and still couldn’t crack the top 4, I’m guessing that there’s not a path forward.

Michele Bachmann seems willing to hang in for a bit longer.  I don’t see how she’s a viable candidate.  She represents a neighboring state (Minnesota) in congress, was born in Iowa, won the Ames Straw poll, spent a ton of time in the state over the past fews months, and despite all these advantages, still managed just 5% of the vote.

Many observers felt that Santorum picked up support from the anybody-but-Romney crowd.  He doesn’t have a lot of money, and it will be interesting to see if he can raise funds to be competitive in other states.  It will also be interesting to see if he can weather the storm of attack ads that is sure to be coming.  He peaked so late in Iowa that he wasn’t the target of many attack ads.

I’m sure that Paul’s third place finish comes as a shock to many of his supporters.  Crunchy had her own predictions on Yahoo yesterday, and one commenter left this doozy of a response (excerpt)

only about 90% of those who post comments and rate them online support Ron Paul. Romney is met with disdain and Santorum, derision. While the demographics are no doubt skewed here towards thinking people as opposed to sheeple, you can’t change 90% into third place without fixing it

Unfortunately, the number of vocal online supporters a candidate has doesn’t necessarily translate into the number of voters they will get.  While it’s important to have devoted followers, they are only one part of the mix.  You also need to get votes from people who silently support a candidate – the silent majority.

What should we expect in New Hampshire?  It’s probably that Romney will pickup a win in his back yard, but it’s possible that Huntsman could pull off  a surprise.  However, if some members of the GOP are unwilling to vote for Romney because he’s a Mormon,  then a protest vote for Hunstman wouldn’t make much sense, since he’s also Mormon. 

If Romney can consistently finish in the top 2 in the next batch of primaries and have his opponents split the time in the other spot, he should be in good shape for the nomination.  A large field works in Romney’s interest, and it splinters the anti-Romney vote in a few directions and makes it harder for any one candidate to surpass his vote total.

First we will start in the NFL, where the last of the playoff spots were sorted out. We learned a couple of things in the NFL this weekend.

1. Terence Newman is even worse than most Cowboys fans in my office thought. I have heard complaints about his lack of ability to cover himself with coat before stepping outside on a cold day, but he showed this weekend against the Giants that he simply is not very good.
2. It appears Tebow Time is over.
3. Matt Flynn just made himself some serious money looking towards next year.

Bowl Games

The College Bowls took seat front and center yesterday with the traditional January 1st bowl games moved to Monday due to Sunday and the NFL.

Worst game of the day had to be Penn State versus Houston. Neither team really wanted to be there but the fact is Houston has an offense and Penn State does not.

The best game of the day is up for debate, but my vote goes to the Oklahoma State win over Stanford. I would still have loved seeing Oklahoma State avoid the upset against the Iowa State Cyclones and be playing for it all due to their ability to score in bunches.

Better yet, how about a Cowboys versus Ducks matchup. I am after everyone would be handed 3-D Glasses to view the newest uniforms rolled out to each of these two teams, watching the actual game would remind anyone in their early 40’s of the glory days of play Super Tecmo Bowl. I would give the edge to Oregon in a shootout. 84-80.

Worst of the Worst – from Bowl Games

You have GOT to feel badly for a pair of kickers yesterday. First off Georgia Kicker Blair Walsh….While he became the Southeastern Conference’s career scoring leader with a field goal in the second overtime, he missed a 42-yarder in the first overtime and then had a 47-yard attempt blocked on the final play of the game.

You have got to feel even worse for Stanford freshman kicker Jordan Williamson, who missed 3 kicks – including one at the end of regulation to win the game and again another miss in overtime. On the game’s final drive, he reminded me of the pitcher throwing a no-no late in the game, he was all by himself, basically excluded from the rest of his team on the sidelines. He looked nervous to me on television, but he is only a dreshman, so hopefully he will bounce back.

Worst of the Worst – is two of the Marquee players in the Capital One Bowl, Alfonso Dennard and Alshon Jeffery get into a slugging match on the sideline and both players are thrown out. Not a great thing to do on the national stage, in your final game of your college career

An even Bigger bomb was dropped by the Capital One Bowl who selected Jeffrey with their MVP award for the game.

I am sure he was chosen for his “Hail Mary” catch right before halftime, which definitively turned the tide and the momentum of the game in South Carolina’s favor. However, giving an award to a person ejected from a football game for fighting with another player sets an exceedingly poor example, no matter how big the player’s impact in the game. You can’t select that person as the winner of an award on individual merits in this fame based on principal alone.

Boo Capital One….

Until Next Time, Stay Classy St Matthews, South Carolina.

I was travelling to visit relatives most of the last week.  This article is a hodge-podge of topics I discussed with my college age children during a combined 24 hours of car travel.

Politics

I live in Iowa and will be participating in the Caucus.  All of the voting age people in my house will be going participating as well.  Our participation is more to understand what the positions of the candidates are and what the major issues that will be championed by the party will be.  Yes we get to be part of the first in the nation guidance for the primary season, but that is secondary to learning as much as possible.  My father lives in Texas and will call shortly after the caucus to tell me if Iowa chose correctly or not.  Last time he was correct for both parties, as far as who the final nominees were.  Crunchy’s article about the caucuses matches my experience, except she left out the part about the cookies that are provided.  Ok, I guess that is not really important

Sports – College Bowl Games

The college football bowl season is moving along nicely.  We only have about thirty bowls to go (just kidding).  I have watched several of the bowls.  Most of them have been competitive.  Most of them have also had what appears to be low attendance.  This may be because of the venues (Yankee Stadium is not the best for football viewing and using professional stadiums that hold 100,000 people for a bowl that traditionally has 50,000 spectators will make it appear empty).  The best games are still to come, although my personal opinion is that the championship game is sort of a waste.  Why would you ever have a bowl with two teams from the same conference?  If Alabama wins, will they really be the champions or will it be shared with LSU since they would each have beaten the other once?

Sports – Professional Football

The playoffs are set.  I think it was great that the final week of the season actually meant something this year.  There was positioning as well as qualifying at stake, even in the last game late Sunday night.  The match-ups look good with some rematches.  Tim Tebow will be there, at least the first round, to keep the story line of the religious quarterback going.  Just a note, most football players have a strong and public faith life.  This comes from the fact that on any play, they can be injured and could be prevented from playing the game they love (and their livelihood).

In some ways it is the same teams in the playoffs again; New England, Baltimore, Pittsburg, Green Bay, New Orleans and New York have all been to the Super Bowl or at least conference championships over the last few years.  The notable new comers are the Houston Texas – congratulations on you first playoff appearance.  The notable missing team are the Indianapolis Colts – what a difference a quarterback makes.

Writing

I have been writing while I have been off for the holidays, but not nearly enough.  I am challenging myself to actually get my first book into the various electronic formats and out for the world to consider.  I am also challenging myself to actually complete my second book.  Then I have to actually work on my third effort, the one I failed to even get 50,000 words written for NaNoWriMo this year.  For Christmas, I received a short book on how to write and publish by an English Professor.  Although it was interesting to read his ideas, I would recommend Kosmo’s guide.  The main difference is that Kosmo provides actual advice, the professional drops of names and brags about his own publishing record, but provides little concrete help.

Productive Hobbies

A couple of articles ago, I commented that I was crocheting in my spare time.  I am happy to report that I have (almost) completed a afghan for my daughter to take back to college with her.  My next effort will have to be a little more complex to help me grow in my capabilities.  I have found that crocheting while watching TV has actually helped me in my quest to lose weight.  My hands are occupied and the urge to grab a snack or even sip a soft drink is really reduced.  So to sum up, Politics, Football, Football, Writing and keeping busy.

Marilyn vos Savant has the highest reported IQ in the world and writes a weekly column where she answers questions from the great unwashed. Often time, the questions are simple enough that a person with average intelligence could answer them. Sometimes, though, she does bobble one and give an obviously wrong answer. (I guess your editor can’t question your work if you’re the smartest person in the world.)

Let’s take a look at this recent question.

I manage a drug-testing program for an organization with 400 employees. Every three months, a random-number generator selects 100 names for testing. Afterward, these names go back into the selection pool. Obviously, the probability of an employee being chosen in one quarter is 25 percent. But what’s the likelihood of being chosen over the course of a year?
Jerry Haskins, Vicksburg, Miss.
 
Marilyn responds:
The probability remains 25 percent, despite the repeated testing. One might think that as the number of tests grows, the likelihood of being chosen increases, but as long as the size of the pool remains the same, so does the probability. Goes against your intuition, doesn’t it?

Yes, it certainly does go against my intuition.  There’s a great reason for this – the answer is wrong.

Is the answer counter-intuitive?

Before we actually analyze in any detail, ask yourself if this makes sense.  Do you really think a person has a 25% chance of being chosen over the course of a year, regardless of the number of tests?  So if the company tests 1 time per year or 700 times per year (arrival, lunch break, and right before you leave every day) John Q. Public on the assembly line has a 25% chance of being picked at any time during the course of a year?

Give Marilyn a point for correctly suggesting that her answer is counter-intuitive.

Walk through the 4 tests

OK, let’s walk through the selections in each of the quarters.

• Quarter 1: Of the 400 employees, 100 are selected and 300 are not.  At this point, we’ve broken the single group of employees into two sub-groups – those who have been selected and those who have not.
• Quarter 2:  100 of the 400 employees are selected again.  If the sampling is truly random, 25% of each sub-group will be selected.  This means that 25% of the 100 employees (25) who were selected in the 1st quarter will be selected again, and 25% of the 300 employees (75) who were not selected in the 1st quarter will be selected.  The “selected at least once” sub-group now grows to 175 while the “never selected” subgroup shrinks to 225.  From this point on, we’ll focus on the “never selected” group.
• Quarter 3:  The “never selected” group drops to 169.
• Quarter 4:  The “never selected” group drops to 127.

At the end of the year, 127 of the 400 employees (31.75%) have completely avoided the testing, while 273 (68.25%) have been selected at least once.  1 or 2 people would have been selected all four times.

Show me the math

As is often the case with probability, the easiest way to attack this is to computer the odds of the opposite circumstance and subtract this from 100%.  The odds of being selected one of more times would involve computing the odds of being selected once, twice, three times, or four times and then adding the results.

Alternately, we can easily calculated the odds of never being selected, and just subtract this from 100% to arrive at the likelihood of being selected at least once.

The odds of avoiding testing in any quarter is 75%.  Thus, we simple raise .75 to the power of 4 (.75^⁴) to arrive at the odds of never being selected for testing – .3164, or 31.64%.  Thus the odds of being selected at least once is 68.36%.  This differs slightly from the result above because the 68.25% involved some rounding (since we must use whole people and not fractions).

The moral of the story?

Don’t place too much trust (or dis-trust) in the messenger.  Pay attention to the actual message.