Fiscal Cliff Predictions

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The fiscal cliff is looming at the end of the year, and we will be hearing more about it as we get closer to the end of the year.

My predictions regarding the fiscal cliff.

  • A deal will get done, but it might not be until early January.  The new congressional session begins on January 3rd.  This may result in congress having to re-do some of the earlier work, due to the changed in the membership of the congress.
  • The payroll tax holiday will end.  Extending this long term would probably be a bad idea anyway, since this is money that goes into Social Security.  If we’re reducing the funds going into Social Security, we’re increasing the risk that Social Security will be a viable program in the future.  This may even be phased in over 2-3 years to allow families to slowly adjust to the lower take home pay.
  • The Bush era tax cuts for families making less than $250,000 per year will remain in place.
  • Rates for families making more than $250,000 will rise, but not quite to the levels they were at before the Bush era cuts.  Maybe slightly above the midway point between the old and new rates.  Yes, I am predicting an actual compromise.
  • The capital gains rate will rise, perhaps to a maximum rate of 18-20%.  One misconception about capital gains is that they are a form of double taxation.  This can be the case, if the rise in a stock’s price is attributable to the company retaining/reinvesting earnings rather than paying dividends.  However, in many cases a stock price rises for other reasons.  Sometimes the company has never made a profit, but has a very promising future.  In this case, corporate taxes have never been paid.  Additionally, capital gains can arise from the ownership of non-stock assets (real estate and physical objects).

Up to this point, both sides have been hesitant to budge very much, although some Republicans have said they would support a tax increase on the wealthy.  Without action, tax rates for everyone will go up on January 1st.  In essence, this is a game of high stakes chicken.  It may even make sense, politically, to wait until 2013 to pass the legislation.  If the legislation passes this year, before the rates revert, it would just be an extension of the earlier cuts.  If the legislation passed after the rates have already reverted, it would be an actual cut of those new rates.  Very little difference in the grand scheme of things, but a big difference on the political trail in 2014.

December Football

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December is finally here. The college football regular season is complete and the bowl invitations have been made. If your team is in one, the travel plans are in work. The sports talk shows are arguing the merits and weaknesses of each team and bowl pairing. Fans are excited by or bemoaning the season, the rankings and the talk shows.

The Big Ten conference has provided much of the fodder for discussion this year. The two best teams (Penn State and Ohio State) are not bowl eligible, and a five loss team (Wisconsin) is going to a BCS bowl because they absolutely trounced a theoretically better former Big XII team (Nebraska) 70-31. The Big XII put 9 out of 10 teams into bowl games with both of the new comers (TCU and WV) showing well and with 2 of the 4 teams who left (Nebraska and Texas A&M) getting bowl bids as well. The SEC is the SEC and a couple of weeks ago the writer decided that they would be the second half of the championship game. I am not saying that Alabama does not deserve to be there, I am just a little tired of a one loss SEC team being considered so much better than a one loss team from any other conference. In some polls, and SEC team can have two or even three losses and be considered better than a one loss team from anywhere else.

One last college comment, here is a big shout out to the Northern Illinois Huskies! Great season and good luck in the bowl game. Florida state will be a challenge, but you guys are playing on New Year’s Day!

In Pro football not much has changed over the last few weeks. The New York Giants as still slogging away leading the mediocre NFC East. Atlanta and San Francisco have control of their divisions. Green Bay and Chicago have to decide who gets the division and who gets the wild card. Although it looks like Seattle will get the other wild card, there are several other oh so average teams that could take it. On the AFC side, the divisions are pretty much locked up with Houston, Denver, and New England locked in, and Baltimore needing an absolute melt down to fail. The wild cards are also almost sewn up with really only three teams vying for the spots, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Indianapolis. Indy has to play Houston twice while Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have to play each other.

In the end, the AFC wild card and the NFC north are the interesting battles. If you are a fan of one of the six teams trying to get the last NFC wild card spot, it will be interesting for you, but, honestly, none of those teams have shown well against any of the division leaders.

Who Will Win The Heisman?

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It should be an interesting Heisman match up as only three people are invited to the festivities this year. In many ways it is the unlikeliest three you could have ever tried to pick out before the season started.

Optimus Klein

Collin Klein had been a good – maybe even great quarterback for the Kansas State Wildcats. He had matured nicely over a couple of years and the club was seeing some success after the lean Ron Prince Era in Manhattan. No one saw the Wildcats going undefeated – until a late season loss at Baylor- which dropped them from the eventual #1 BCS ranking. K-State is headed to the Fiesta Bowl to represent the Big XII conference against the vaunted Quack Attack from the Pac Northwest. Klein is not flashy, doesn’t look real fast, but he is smart and he makes plays, and has been as consistent as any guy talked about in the Heisman voting all year with 22 touchdown runs and another 15 through the air.

As much as it pains a Nebraska guy to say this…I would be happy for Kansas State if Colin took home the Heisman.

Baby Seau

Manti Te’o is the unquestioned leader of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. He has led the team to an undefeated record and a trip to the BCS title game in Miami against the Crimson Tide. The Golden Domers were thought to be better this year, but much like in the case of Kansas State…I don’t think anyone saw an undefeated season coming. A few lucky breaks ( a quick referees whistle against Stanford, and a couple of “noonans” out of the Pittsburgh kicker) kept the undefeated season alive. Teo leads his team with 103 tackles and is 2nd Nationally with 7 picks on the year. Oh yeah…he won the Butkus on Monday.

I can’t vote for Manti because – A….he is from Notre Dame and B…what a horrible nickname…..

Go Johnny GO!

The media darling and apparent leader in the clubhouse is Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M. Manziel is the favorite to win the award and would be the first freshman EVER to win if the voters agree. He would also be the only other Aggie to win the award since John David Crow clear back in 1957. Johnny Football does not have history on his side. Other greats have come close in their freshman years but to no avail. Adrian Peterson finished 2nd as a freshman, Michael Vick and Herschel Walker both finished third their initial year in college. That is a pretty strong list of company. Manziel racked up an SEC record 4600 yards of total offense (yep, that beats Tim Tebow and Cam Newton folks) and ran for an impressive 1181 yards – also to lead the conference

I don’t know if the voters will have the guts to take a defensive player (this just does not happen) or a Freshman (this just does not happen either) or will vote for the safe play in Klein.

Vote for Johnny!

Melt Down in Indianapolis.

The Big 10 Woodshed Beating known as the title game saw the Wisconsin Badgers run up the score – both literally and figuratively- on their way to 70 points and almost 600 yards of rushing. This has Nebraska fans searching for answers and screaming about yet another large embarrassing national televised beat down while Wisconsin fans are making travel arrangements to Pasadena.

Of course my allegiances lie with the Big Red. So take my comments here with a grain of salt. Many Husker faithful will are calling for coaching changes. Nebraska won 10 games so far this year, and have a brutally tough match up in the Capital One Bowl with Florida. (another likely loss as UGA is a huge early favorite) Truth is the overall talent on the defensive side of the ball in particular and much of what was done this year was probably as much smoke, mirrors and duct tape – mixed in with a little luck….but I think coaching was the reason the team actually won 10 games this year and have a chance to make it to the Big 10 Title game.

After getting housed by Ohio State in Columbus, Husker Coach Bo Pelini challenged his team to win 6 in a row. Well the Cornhuskers did just that…winning 6 to make the title game.

Maybe Bo should have told them they needed to win 7. The team looked lackluster and slow…they looked like a tired team that had been through a rough stretch of schedule.

Wisconsin on the other hand looked my buddy Scott running the controls on NCAA Football 2012 for PlayStation III on “easy” mode.

One Highlight during a lowlight evening.

Always a fan of big hits, this one is arguably one of the worst calls I have seen. Nebraska receiver Kenny Bell was flagged for unnecessary roughness after plastering Wisconsin’s Devin Smith. This is the largest smack down since John Ruud de-cleated Kelly Phelps from Oklahoma on a kick return in a colossal match up of the Huskers and OU in 1978 in Lincoln.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hA5fJkSRFyk" 

Before any Wisconsin fans whine that it was the correct call, let me remind you…SCOREBOARD…just keep quiet and let Husker fans rejoice on one of the few glimmers of brilliance on this fateful night.

On a more concerning note, this legal hit is exactly what football (NFL more explicitly) is trying to dictate. They are trying to regulate safety in the game. Anytime you have big, strong, fast grown men running around with helmets and body armor on…occasionally violent collisions will happen.

This time a big hit was on a big stage at the college level (albeit in a complete blowout game) Will the NCAA respond and put some rules in place just due to a hit like this in a conference title game.

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Review: Hit Me by Lawrence Block

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The first time I encountered Lawrence Block’s hit man, Keller, I wasn’t overly impressed.  I finished the book, but Keller just didn’t see to resonate with me nearly as well as other Block characters like gentleman burglar Bernie Rhodenbarr or private eye Matt Scudder.  A couple of years later, I discovered that one of the Keller books, Hit and Run, took place in my home state of Iowa.  That was enough of a reason for me to give Keller a second chance.  This time, he quickly grew on me (much like a fungus).  I became fond of Keller and have read several of the Keller books since then.

Several months ago, Block announced that a new Keller book, Hit Me, would be coming out in February.  I pre-ordered it immediately, so that it would magically appear on my Kindle on the release date.

Then, last week, something appears in my inbox.  An advanced reading copy of the book.  Yes, Christmas came early this year …

Without further ado, let’s get to the book.

Hit Me, like several other Keller books, is broken into a number of shorter works.  In the case of Hit Me, these are five stories: Keller in Dallas, Keller’s Homecoming, Keller at Sea, Keller’s Sideline, and Keller’s Obligation.  While the stories mesh with each other chronologically, they can also be read independently of each other.  The final story ends rather abruptly, leaving you wanting more. 

The People

An important aspect of the Keller books has always been Keller’s relationship with Dot, the woman who lines up work for him.  Although Keller and Dot go long stretches without contact, she often knows him better than he knows himself.  In theory, their relationship is professional.  However, in reality, they are very good friends.  Their phone conversations often drift into fun trivial tangents.  However, other times they discuss the big question: is it morally acceptable to kill people for profit?

In Hit and Run, Keller was forced to abandon New York City.  He ended up landing in New Orleans in the typical “boy meets girl, boy kills girl’s attacker, boy marries girl” fashion.  Keller is now a family man, settled down with a wife and young daughter.  This makes him wonder if it’s time to leave his line of work behind – but he always seems to get drawn back in.  His wife, Julia, is aware of his secret, and she has to figure out what she thinks of a man who kills for a living.  The story Keller at Sea gives us a prolonged look at Julia.

I’m hoping there are many more Keller books in the future.  Keller’s daughter (inverted) Jenny is just three years old now.  At some point in the future, will she learn what her daddy does for a living?  Will she eventually join the family business?   

The Stories

The five stories in the book take Keller away from his New Orleans home to Dallas, New York, an ocean cruise, Cheyenne, Denver, and Buffalo (coincidentally, the author’s childhood home).  The people targeted by Keller’s clients include a wealthy criminal, a prominent member of the clergy, and a fourteen year old stamp collector (Keller wouldn’t kill a kid – would he?).  We also see Keller being seduced – by a lonely widow and a sexy widow-wannabe.  Will Keller give in to temptation, or stay true to Julia (come on, Keller, keep it zipped)?

Although Keller’s moral compass might be a few degrees away from true north, he still does have a basic sense of right and wrong guiding his life.  He always strives to get the job done with a minimal amount of collateral damage.  However, Keller’s killings never go exactly according to plan.  Some little wrinkle always pops up – sometimes organically and sometimes supplied by Dot – and Keller needs to determine the best way to handle it.  Even dream jobs aren’t without their challenges … 

Keller always attacks the situation in a matter-of-fact way.  It’s interesting to see a killer portrayed as a true professional.  Killing someone isn’t as easy as flying to a different city, shooting them in the head, and flying back home.  The killing is only half the job – getting away with it is the other half.  Proper preparation prevents piss-poor performance, as they say.

For those of your who are currently apprentices in the profession, the Keller books are a good way to learn some tricks of the trade.

Block is a master story-teller.  He managed to make even the most mundane details seem interesting.  Why would anyone really care what Keller eats for breakfast?  Well, I would – Keller’s thought process on the topic is pretty interesting. 

In terms of mood, the Keller stories fall somewhere between the Bernie and Scudder books.  Not as lighthearted as Bernie can be at times, but not as dark as the Scudder books can sometimes get.

The Stamps

Many years ago, Keller got into stamp collecting as a way to hide his ill-gotten gains.  The Keller books have always discussed philately.  If you’re a stamp collector yourself, you’re likely to enjoy Keller’s pursuit of various stamps and interaction with other collectors.  You may also learn a few things about geography and history along the way.  The author draws upon his own philatelic experiences for the Keller character.  In fact, Block has published a book about his stamp collecting experiences,  Generally Speaking, which is composed of columns he wrote for Linn’s Stamp News.  If you read Generally Speaking (which I, as a non-collector, found very enjoyable) you’ll note a lot of similarities between Keller and the author.

The killings, however, are purely works of fiction.

Probably.

Verdict

If you’re a Keller fan, definitely pre-order.  These are very interesting Keller tales that show our hero moving to a new phase of his life.  If you haven’t tried the Keller books yet, give Hit Me a chance.  You won’t regret it.
 

 

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