The SoapBoxers

Prince Albert in a slump

Is Albert Pujols a $240 million mistake?

The big news around baseball so far has been the performance of Albert Pujols. Much was expected after he signed a $240 million contract with the Angels. So far, Pujols has managed exactly zero homers. As a point of references, that’s exactly how many homers I have this year.

I caution those who would write off Albert as a washed-up has been. Players have bad months all the time. Look at the early season struggles of David Ortiz in recent years as an example. It’s also important to realize that Pujols is learning the tendencies of an entire league’s worth of pitchers, whereas the opposing pitchers have a relatively smaller pool of league-crossers to study. Remember how Matt Holliday struggled early in 2009 after being traded to the A’s? Then you probably also remember that his May OPS was 250 points higher than his April OPS that year. No? Don’t remember that? It’s true.

Harper, Trout called up

Is Mike Trout better than Bryce Harper?

Over the weekend, top prospects Bryce Harper of the Nationals and Mike Trout of the Angels were called up. 19 year old Harper would likely have spend more time in AAA, but injuries gave decimated the Nationals lineup and they needed another bat in the fray. 20 year old Trout was expected to compete for a roster spot in spring training, but was sidelined by illness and really never got his legs under him.

Trout struggled a bit in a call-up last year, but the organization believes that he will be a great player. It’s probably to his benefit that Harper was called up on the same day. Harper is the most hyped hitting prospects in a decade or so, and this should allow Trout to fly under the radar a bit and feel much less pressure that he otherwise would.

Yu and the Rangers

Yu Darvish is living up to the hype.

In the off-season, the Rangers watched the Angels snap up Albert Pujols in free agency – and also saw them nab C.J. Wilson. This was the second straight year they lost a star pitcher to free agency – Cliff Lee bolted to Phillies after the 2010 season. The Rangers didn’t skip a beat, signing Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish to a deal. While many people didn’t think it made sense to essentially trade a known quantity (Wilson) for an unknown one (Darvish), I personally think the move was brilliant. Darvish cost them only money – no draft pick compensation. On the other hand, having the Angels sign Wilson gave the Rangers two draft pick – one of them coming at the expense of the Angels.

The move has paid off in spades, at least in April. While Wilson has put up stellar numbers (3-2, 2.70 ERA) Darvish has been even better (4-0, 2.18 ERA) and seems to be improving with each start. After allowing 13 walks in his first 17 2/3 innings, Darvish has allowed just 4 in his last 15 1/3 innings.

The “surprising rise” of the Nationals

Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals spent a good chunk of April in first place in the NL East. Their rise has seeming caught many observers by surprise. I’m really not sure why this is the case, when the Nats have been building toward this for a number of year, with some smart free agent moves and by obtaining excellent talent in the draft. And while the front office is getting a lot of credit for building the team, it’s important to note that the reason why they have the cornerstone pieces – Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and Ryan Zimmerman – is because they were consistent losers for a long period of time and were able to stockpile draft top draft picks. It didn’t take any sort of brilliant scouting to figure out that Strasburg and Harper were the guys to pick in the draft – they were the most highly touted pitching and hitting prospects in a generation. It simply required the Nationals to lose more games than anyone else. So while it’s true that the Washington front office has made some good decision, it might be prudent to mute the praise just a bit.

Around baseball

Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp is off to an otherworldly start, batting .409 with 12 homers and 25 RBI. As a result, the Dodgers are 17-7 and hold a 4 game lead in the NL West. It would seem that the Dodgers, now free from the shadow of Frank McCourt, are positioned for a playoff run. As a fan of the Rockies, I’m operating under the assumption that Kemp is going to cool off at some point, and that the Dodgers will face off their pace at that point.

The Angels are eight games out of first place. I can’t imagine that too many people expected that. It’s still very early in the season, but L.A. can’t afford to have the Rangers stretch out their lead much more.

The Red Sox and Phillies were buried deep in the standings after the first few weeks, but have started to make up some ground recently. The Phillies are now within 2 1/2 games of the Nationals, while the Red Sox are 4 games back in the AL East.

The Devil Rays recently pushed their way into first place, pushing past the … Baltimore Orioles. I have to believe that the 15-9 record of the Orioles is a mirage at this point.

The most competitive division so far has been the AL East, where the Indians, White Sox, and Tigers are effectively tied for the lead. The Indians are percentage points ahead, with a record of 11-10. The division also features the two teams with the worst records in baseball – the Royals and Twins.

Tim Beckham

The Cardinals have managed to hang on to first place in the NL Central, even after losing Albert Pujols. The Cardinals signed Carlos Beltran as a free agent in the off-season, which allowed them to shift Berkman to Pujols’s old position. Beltran’s numbers have been solid – a .378 on base percentage and 5 homers so far. He’s not likely to match Pujols’s season numbers, but his addition allowed the Cardinals to at least patch the hole.

2008 #1 overall pick Tim Beckam (Devil Rays) has been suspended 50 games for a second violation of baseball’s drug policy.

Jimmy Buffett, thinking about taxes.

Back in February, my friend Lazy Man discussed the different tax rates paid by the Brothers Buffett. The gist is that Jimmy gets hammered with a 35% tax rate on his earnings, while Warren wheels and deals his way to a rate near 15%, due to the majority of his income coming from capital gains. There was some lively discussion on the matter. One assertion was that Warren was actually paying a higher tax rate than Jimmy, as the companies owned by Warren had already paid corporate income taxes, essentially paying taxes on behalf of owners like Warren Buffett. Add this rate to the individual tax rate of Warren, and he pays a higher rate than Jimmy.

Sometimes capital gains results in double taxation

I’ll concede the point that sometimes a capital gain does result in double taxation. If the capital gain results from the corporate earnings that have accrued over time, then the capital gain would indeed be double taxation.

Should we feel sorry for people who find themselves doubly taxed as a result? I don’t. Why not? Because there are several ownership types other than a C-Corporation (the “normal” type of corporation). Partnerships and even S-Corporations (small corporations) only file informational tax returns, with each owner being personally responsible for taxes on their share of earnings. If two people each have 50% ownership in a partnership that has a profit of $100,000, then each partner has $50,000 in income as a result. The earnings are taxed only at the individual level, resulting in single taxation. Companies that form C-Corporations volunteer for double taxation as a result of opting for that form of ownership – they aren’t forced into it.

Why, you ask, would anyone form a C-Corp, then? Because there are a lot of other advantages, such as the ability to easily buy and sell an ownership stake. Sometimes factors other than taxes can form the foundation for a sound business decision.

Sometimes capital gains aren’t double taxation

Amazon.com was incorporated in 1994 but did not make a profit until 2001. During this time, the company was growing and increasing market share – but losing money. Effectively, taxpayers were subsidizing the growth through tax refunds and net operating loss carryforwards. If you combine capital gains taxes with a shareholder’s proportional share of corporate taxes – exactly what is being proposed by others as the “correct” way to calculate an individual’s tax rate – the rate is effectively LOWER than the capital gains rate.

Amazon’s seven year odyssey to profitability is a somewhat extreme example, but it’s not uncommon for companies to lose money during the first few years.

Even for companies that are profitable, the gain on a sale will often exceed what you’d expect based on the accumulated profits of the company. Why? Because people are buying the promise of future earnings. Obviously, these earnings haven’t been taxed at the corporate level (they haven’t even been earned yet), so there’s clearly no double taxation for the portion of capital gains that relates to expected future earnings.

It’s not all about stock

While people tend to get locked into the mindset that all capital gains are related to the sales of stock, this isn’t the case. There are a variety of assets that can generate capital gains. Some are income-producing assets (farmland), but some are not. That gold nugget or T-206 Honus Wagner card don’t generate any income, but they do generate a capital gain when sold. There’s definitely no double taxation when you sell non-income generating assets.

Jake Varner (red) will represent the United States in the 96 kg freestyle class.

Why Iowa City?

This year’s US Olympic Wrestling Trials were held in Iowa City, where I live. For those unfamiliar with the sport of wrestling, this may seem like an odd choice. To those who are familiar with wrestling, it probably seems very logical. The University of Iowa – located in Iowa City – has been a dominant force in collegiate wrestling since the mid 1970s. Since 1975, they have won 23 national titles, fifteen of them by wrestling icon Dan Gable.

And the University of Iowa isn’t the only program in the state. Intrastate rival Iowa State (my alma mater) has won eight national titles. Additionally, two of the greatest collegiate wrestlers in history – Gable and current Penn State head coach Cael Sanderson – wrestled for the Cyclones. Suffice it to say that wrestling is far more popular in Iowa than in most other states.

Oddly, Iowa City had never hosted the Olympic Trials before. When the location was announced, many expected the 2012 Trials to break the attendance record. The record was 9434 set in Dallas at the final session in 2000. Session 3 set the all-time record with 13,784 fans. The other three sessions all drew at least 13,500 fans. The record wasn’t simply broken, it was obliterated.

Kosmo is in the house!

I’m a casual fan, but I love the Olympics, and this seemed like a chance to attend a very cool event. My wife agreed to watch the kids on Saturday while I attended session 1. The kids were already up when I left the house at 7:15. I got to Carver Hawkeye Arena, scored a good parking spot, and bought a single session ticket for $20. Fifteen minutes later, the doors open and the crowd entered. I bought a t-shirt and found my way to my seat. it wasn’t a great seat, but the view wasn’t too bad, considering that I bought a ticket at the last moment.

I also bought a program so that I could figured out what was going one. The weight classes had been split into two days. In the first session each day, there would be a “challenge tournament”, with the top two wrestlers at each weight advancing to the night session. In the night sessions, the top two wrestlers would face off in a best-of-3-matches contest, with matches at least a half hour apart. Wrestlers who had done particularly well in international competition were given automatic berths in the championship round.

Atmosphere

The atmosphere was very cool – lots of excitement in the air. It was also cool to see wrestlers who weren’t part of the first session milling around the arena. 2008 Olympian Dremiel Byers (who would end up as the Trials champion in the 120 kg Greco-Roman class this year as well) showed a woman to a seat in my row (more about her later).

When the matches started, it was pretty crazy. There were 148 matches scheduled for the session, which was slated to run between 9 AM and 3 PM. There were four mats being used, and the action was fast and furious, with one match beginning quickly after another ended. To add to the craziness, there were men’s freestyle, women’s freestyle, and men’s Greco-Roman matches all occurring at the same time. Although I’ve watched wrestling on TV before (yeah, college wrestling and the high school state tournament is televised here), I had never actually been to a live event before. So it took some time to get my bearings.

Iris Smith (red) in 2005 photo.

About a half hour into the event, the woman next to me casually mentioned that her daughter had wrestled earlier. The woman had been cheering someone in nearly every match (or so it seemed) and I had no idea one of them was her daughter (Iris Smith, 2005 World Champion at 72 kg). from that point on, our little section cheered for Iris (who, sadly, finished third in her weight class, much to our disappointment). We saw a former world champion and member of the US Army who had a rooting section of one person – and we felt that she deserved more fans. Smith’s mom was very classy in her rooting style – not a bad word about any of the other wrestlers.

I spent some time getting to know Iris’s mom. She was very impressed by the turnout, and she discussed some of the events she had been to over the years. Also, she told me to avoid the New York New York casino in Vegas, because the slots didn’t pay very well. In turn, I shared my knowledge of Iowa with her. At one point, she turned to me and asked “what year are you in college?”. I turn 37 next month, so I took this as a compliment.

The action

My favorite bout of the session was former Iowa State wrestler Trent Paulson facing Kyle Dake at 74 kg freestyle. Dake had won the second period in overtime by carrying Paulson out of bounds for the one point. It was a quick move and Paulson couldn’t reaction. It would have seemed that Dake had all the momentum – but then Paulson came out and dominated in the third session to win the match. The crowd’s response was one of the loudest of the session … for a guy who had wrestled collegiately for a big rival.

The guy who impressed me the most in session one, though, was Tommy Rowlands in the 96 kg class. Rowlands had been a two time national champion for Ohio State at heavyweight, but had since dropped down to the 96 kg freestyle class. Rowlands absolutely steamrolled is way through the early session on Saturday, allowing just two points to be scored against him in three matches (while scoring 22 points himself). I’m definitely a novice fan, but Rowlands caught my eye time and time again.

When the first session ended, it was time for me to go – but the Trials continued. My favorite moment of the Trials was one that I didn’t see – when the previously dominant Rowlands fell to former Iowa State wrestler (and 2011 world bronze medalist) Jake Varner in the finals at 96 kg. We had a chance to have two Cyclone wrestlers on the team, but Travis Paulson (twin brother of the aforementioned Trent) lost in the finals at 84 kg.

A vice president at Monster.com once attempted to pay me for a freelance job with a lightly used copy of Stephen King’s It. This is an absolutely true story, and the craziest part is that I accepted the offer!

Why would I accept a job for such meager pay? Well, there are a few good reasons.

• It was a partial payment – I think I also got five bucks in cash.
• Stephen King is a great writer
• This was twenty years ago, when Eric and I were high school classmates. At the time, I was a freelance typist who typed reports for a sizeable chunk of my class.

King is the King

I’ve always been a fan of Stephen King.I’m not sure that he has ever been my absolute favorite writer, but as other writers have jumped to the top and later dropped into the category of also-rans (sorry, John Grisham, but this describes you) King has been a mainstay in the top 5.

While King draws the largest following for his supernatural tales, I’ve always felt that he was at his best when he writes “straight” fiction. I’m sure there are many who don’t realize that the movie The Shawshank Redemption is based on a King story (you can find it alongside another great tale, Apt Pupil, in the novella collection Different Seasons).

I’m digressing, but my point is that 11/22/63 is a book without any of the supernatural themes many would expect from a King book – unless you’re the sort of person who finds the idea of time travel to be supernatural. Nonetheless, King spins a grand tale.

The premise

The premise is that Jake Epping, a high school English teacher, goes back in time in an attempt to prevent President Kennedy from being assassinated. The proprietor of Jake’s favorite greasy spoon is on his deathbed when he confides a secret to Jake. He has found a porthole into the 1950s. All Jake needs to do it pop through the porthole, determine that Oswald acted alone, and whack him. While he’s at it, correct a few more wrongs while he’s at it. Need some money? No problem – just bet on sports.

Sounds simple enough, but as Jake finds out, the past is obdurate (Jake’s favorite word) – resistant to change. At each step, the past puts obstacles in his way – some subtle, some not. And each time Jake does something to change the past, the butterfly effect means that the future may also change.

Does Jake succeed in his mission? Sorry, but I’m not going to include a spoiler in a review – you’ll have to read the book to find out.

Historical backdrop

I have a casual interest in history, but I’m not obsessed with Kennedy by any stretch of the imagination. Before reading 11/22/63, I knew the basic details of the Kennedy assassination. While King necessarily fictionalizes the past in order to advance the plot, much of the content is based on fact. Quite a lot of the book focuses on Lee Harvey Oswald and his family. If you’re not terribly familiar with the Kennedy assassination, you might actually learn some history from the book.

Characters and scene

As is generally the case with King, his characters are interesting and multi-dimensional. Jake himself fits the bill of a complex character, of course. He’s a mild-mannered teacher who is now willing to blow a man’s brain’s out. As Jake settles down into a “normal life” for a few years while he does the necessary background on Oswald, he interacts with a rich cast of characters who make him feel at home – rather than an alien from the future. His life becomes entwined with their lives to a degree he never could have imagined.

The book includes a full array of characters. Although the main plot of the books is Jake’s mission to save Kennedy, many other subplots develop as the book moves along – which each subplot spinning up new protagonists and antagonists. Schoolteachers, bookies, murders, self-righteous women, kids, communist sympathizers – 11/22/63 has them all.

King also does a great job of setting the scene with his descriptions of the environment. You can visualize the inside of the diner and can easily hear the children playing jump rope – and, of course, you can see the bruises on Lee Harvey Oswald’s wife. I found it very easy to get immersed in King’s version of the early 60s.

The verdict

I loved the book. It’s long – 849 pages in hardcover – but I doubt you’ll find many boring passages. If you buy the Kindle version, you have two options. You can pay a few extra bucks and get a version with some extra media included. Alternately, you can simply buy the bare bones edition (currently $14.99). Since I was buying it just for the story, I opted for the cheaper version.

Don’t have a Kindle? You can buy one here (for as low as $79).

Recently, my wife and I tried out Amazon Prime, mostly for the free Amazon Instant Video selections.  Although I used the free month to watch the Swedish version of the Girl With the Dragon Tattoo trilogy, the overall selection of movies left something to be desired.  So we’ve decided to go to NetFlix instead.  I’d been using Amazon Instant Video on the computer downstairs, and was unpleasantly surprised to find out that it didn’t quite meet the hardware requirements for NetFlix (just 0.17 GHZ too slow).  Boo.  I’d need a different option for the downstairs TV.

We had just recently purchased a Blu-Ray player for the upstairs computer.  It was a Panasonic DMP-BDT210 (since replaced by the newer BDT220 model).  We’ve used it far more for streaming video than for playing Blu-Ray at this point.  We paid $130 for the 210 model, but the 220 model is $190.  That would be an expensive option … and not even a workable once, since the player only has HDMI output (the TV is 10 years old and only has coax and RCA).

Replace the TV with a newer model that supports NetFlix out of the box?  That’s an option, but I can’t justify spending $500+ on a TV at the moment … especially when the existing TV is working just fine.

Apple TV?  I’m a Mac guy, so I take a look at this.  Alas, only digital output.  The requirement for RCA output is becoming a larger stumbling block than I had hoped.

My search then took me to the Roku.  There are a few different models of the Roku, but I wanted the bare bones model, the Roku LT.  The price – $50.  I ordered it and a few days later, it arrived on my doorstep.  The size of the device caught me a bit off guard.  As an IT guy, I logically knew that this sort of a device didn’t have to be very big … but the Roku was about the same size as the remote.

(Here’s a question: why doesn’t NetFlix partner with a hardware supplier to sell a similar box?  They could sell it for the same price and include a three month trial of NetFlix.  In return, they’ve made it slightly harder for someone to switch to a competitor, since they have a NetFlix-only box).

The setup

The setup was pretty quick and painless.

• Physical – Attached the RCA cable to the TV.  Plug in the AC adapter.  Note: the Roku does also support HDMI output.  720 for the cheaper options, 1080 for the more expensive ones.
• Account setup – During the initial setup, you’ll be asked to get on your computer and register your Roku, using an activation code that appears on the screen.  Note that you are asked to enter a credit card to be used when you purchase premium channels.
• Add channels – You’re ready to add some channels!  I added Netflix via the web site.  Then I went back to the Roku and used the Roku remote to enter my account credentials.  It would have been easier if I could have entered this info on the computer instead of Roku’s site, but it was still a pretty quick process.

Overall impression

I’m really not using many of the advanced features of the Roku.  I’m going to use it for NetFlix and maybe a few other channels (of which there are hundreds including NetFlix, Amazon Instant Video, Hulu, Pandora, sports channels, etc).  I wanted something relatively inexpensive and easy to set up.  The Roku definitely fits the bill.  It’s so easy to set up that there’s not point in looking at the instructions.

The Roku will pay for itself next year.  The Roku and Blu-Ray player both support MLB.TV, so I’ll be able to subscribe to that instead of MLB Extra Innings.  That’s a cost savings of around $75 per year.  #Winning.

You can purchase the Roku by clicking on the image below (which will take you to Amazon) or you can purchase directly from Roku.  We do receive a small commission on each sale.

At the Soap Boxers, we love the annual sports memorabilia auction from Robert Edward Auctions (REA).  This is the third article we have written about it.  We’re not being paid to publicize the auction – we write about it just because we think it’s very cool.  Even if you don’t buy anything, the catalog is a great coffee table book, filled with a mixture of priceless treasures and really weird shit. 

T206 Wagner (Example)

Priceless treasure: T206 Honus Wagner, PSA grade 2. 

The T-206 Wagner is the holy grail of sports card.    There are cards that are more rare than the T206 Wagner, but this card is the most famous.  Even beat up copies can sell for $100,000+, and the best examples can fetch more than a million dollars.  There are many non-baseball fans who are aware of Wagner’s name only because of this card – not realizing that he was one of the greatest players in baseball history.

The specific Wagner in the auction (not the one featured at left) has the date of Oct 16, 1909 stamped on the back in purple.  This was the day of the final game of the 1909 World Series.  REA discovered the existence of another Wagner with the exact same stamp and are saying that this most likely means that the two cards were in the same place in 1909 and were stamped on that day.

Personally, I question whether this is the case.  It’s certainly possible, but it’s also possible that someone bought a stamper decades later and decided to stamp the two cards with the historic date.  Without some sort of forensic analysis of the ink, it’s hard to blindly accept the assertion that it was stamped in 1909. 

Who cares when it was stamped?  Well, if it was actually stamped in 1909, the stamp likely enhances the value a bit.  If someone in 1968 (for example) happened to buy a date stamp, flip the date to Oct 16, 1909, and then proceed to stamp the two cards with the date, then the date stamp is nothing more than 60’s era graffiti and would detract from the value.  (Technically, even if the card was stamped in 1909, it would be graffiti, but it would be easier to overlook if the stamp were historically significant.)

Regardless of when the date was stamped, this Wagner would be a great addition to anyone’s collection.

My favorite items

My favorite auction items are the canceled checks.  Sometimes these are historically significant checks, but often they are not.  Sometimes it’s just a check to the grocery store or the hardware store.  Why do these items fascinate me?  Because they are a view into the life of the person, instead of just the player.  The checks were written in the course of ordinary life, rather signatures being hurriedly scrawled onto a ball thrust in front of them.  In my mind, at least, it humanizes the player.

What else?

There are thousands of items in the auction.  While the auction skews very heavily toward sports items, there are always some cool non-sports items.  Included in this year’s auction is a framed booking card (with fingerprints) autographed by Al Capone.  Capone had himself arrested on a weapons charge in 1929 to get keep himself from getting killed by other mobsters.

Get the catalog.

You can request a free catalog here.
 

 

Happier times ...

On April 1, Bobby Petrino was the head coach of a highly successful Arkansas Razorbacks football team.  Nine days later, he was out of a job.  After a motorcycle accident that uncovered the presence of a mistress, Petrino was first placed on leave and then fire for cause (meaning he does not receive a buyout).  Bobby Petrino is most likely desperately looking for another job, since it’s probably a bit uncomfortable in the Petrino house at the moment.

Before the firing, fans gathered in support of Petrino.  One woman said that she supported Petrino, but had no sympathy for the woman, as she knew what she was getting into.  Huh?  A guy cheats on his wife with another woman, and he’s somehow less to blame than the mistress?  Pretty sure it takes two to tango.

Was the a necessary course of action for the school?  Yes.  On March 28, long after he began a relationship with the woman, he hired her for a job within the athletic department.  The position garnered 159 applicants, and the person Petrino though was best suited for the job was the woman he was having an affair with.  That’s quite a coincidence.  He was so sure he was making the right choice, in fact, that the candidate search was “shorter than our normal affirmative action hiring process”, to quote Athletic Director Jeff Long.  Reading between the lines, Athletic Director Long is saying that Petrino failed to do due diligence in the search and simply picked the person he wanted, regardless of how her qualifications stacked up to those of other candidates.

Maybe it’s just me, but this seems wildly inappropriate.  It’s an epic conflict of interest, and I’m guessing that 158 other people may be looking for attorneys at the moment.

Even if we put this aside for the moment, it’s not as if improper conduct around members of the opposite sex have never cost anyone a job before.  Larry Eustachy won a national coach of the year award when he was the basketball coach at Iowa State.  Pictures surfaced of him partying with students at road games (students at the opponent’s school) and posing for pictures with women.  Conduct unbecoming a coach?  Definitely.  But I’d say it’s step below what Petrino is accused of.

From another perspective, I see the firing as a good thing.  No longer do wins serve as a mitigating factor for improper conduct.  In the past several years, successful coaches Mike Leach, Mark Mangino, and of course Joe Paterno have been fired for off-field actions.  While you can argue about the merits of the charges levied against them, the fact that the universities fired them is an indication that there are still administrators who will not let coaches go rogue, who will put their foot down and place the reputation of the institution of higher learning – and the future of the student-athletes – ahead of a few extra wins and a few million dollars.

There’s a word for that.

Integrity.

"Lipstick Killer" William Heirens

On June 26, 1946, Ted Williams went 4 for 7 with 2 home runs in a double header against the Detroit Tigers. He’d win his first American League MVP that year and would finish his Hall of Fame career lauded by many as The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived.

This day, so many decades ago, was also the last day that William Heirens took a breath as a free man. On March 5, 2012, Heirens died in prison. He had been in prison for 65 years and was thought to be the world’s longest serving prisoner.

Early life

Heirens got off a a bad start in life.  By the age of thirteen, he was already an accomplished burglar.  After being arrested on a weapons charge, a search of his parents’ property yielded a significant cache of stolen property.  Heirens was eventually sentenced to spend time at a school run by monks.  He excelled as a student, and was accepted to college at age 16.

The Killing

Heirens was eventually arrested for three killings.

The first killing was Josephine Ross on June 5, 1945.  Her killing was not a particularly unusual one, as far as murders go.  The thought was that she had interrupted a burglar, who had then killed her.

On December 20, 1945, Frances Brown was killed – and the killer left behind a message for the police.  This message was written on the wall in lipstick:

For heavens
sake catch me
before I kill more
I cannot control myself.

Clearly, this was a very disturbing message.  Police now knew they were dealing with a serial killer – and very likely a mentally disturbed and unpredictable one.

On January 6, 1946, a six year old girl, Suzanne Degnan was kidnapped.  Her body was eventually found in several pieces, strewn over a large area.  The murderer had left behind a ransom note

On the front:
GeI $20,000 Reddy & wAITe foR WoRd. do NoT NoTify FBI oR Police. Bills IN 5’s & 10’s
 
on the back:
BuRN This FoR heR SAfTY

Heirens arrested

On June 26, 1946, Heirens was arrested after committing a burglary. A policeman dropped three flowerpots on his head, which was eventually enough to subdue him.

While in custody, Heirens claims that he was treated very roughly by the police.  He was interrogated for six straight days, given sodium pentothal (truth serum), and at one point punched in the testicles.  Miranda rights?  They didn’t exist – Miranda vs. Arizona was still twenty years away.  Heirens was just seventeen at the time.

Authorities alleged that under the influence of sodium pentothal, Heiren admitted that an alternate personality of his admitted to the murders.

Confession

Heirens’s lawyers felt that it was likely he would be convicted, and worked out a plea bargain with the prosecution.  Heirens claimed that a Chicago Tribune article about the killings was used as a guide.  When he would give information that conflicted from the story in the Tribune, his lawyers would nudge him back to the Tribune’s story line.

At the last moment, the state’s attorney yanked an agreement for one life term and changed it to three life terms … or he’d go to trail and seek the death penalty.

The prison years

During his sixty five years in prison, William Heirens earned 250 college credits, paying the tuition with his own money.  He became the first prisoner in Illinois to earn a four year degree.  He set up the education system at one prison, helped inmates earn GEDs, and served as a jailhouse lawyer.

According to the regulations of 1946, Heirens should have been set free in 1983.  However, these regulations changed in 1973.  Although a 1983 appeals court rule that Heirens should be released immediately.  This ruling was later reversed, and Heirens remained behind bars.

Questions about his guilt

We never got a chance to see how the evidence would play to a jury, since Heirens agreed to a plea deal instead.  There’s certainly much to ponder.

Had the confession gained under the admission of sodium pentothal been used in court, Heirens would have likely been given a new trial, as evidence gained by using “truth serums” was deemed inadmissible by the 1950s.

Handwriting samples from Heirens matched nine points of comparison with the lipstick writing.  But that’s hardly a surprised, since 65% of the population would have had handwriting that would have matched these same points of comparison.

Eyewitness testimony – which is notoriously unreliable in the best of situations – shifted over time.  Witnesses who weren’t sure that Heirens was the man they saw eventually became completely convinced that he was.

Perhaps the most damning evidence was a bloody fingerprint at the home of Frances Brown.  However, this evidence has been called into question.  Among other concerns is that fact that it appears to be a rolled print (the sort you would get when someone has their prints taken be the police) as opposed to a “flat” print that would occur naturally.

The confession Heirens signed?  There was dozens of discrepancies between his account of the killings at the actual facts of the murders.  However, it’s conceivable that Heirens could have planted false information in his confession so that he could use these discrepancies to later claim that the testimony was coached.  Remember, this is a very intelligent person.

Did he do it?

I honestly don’t know.  The existence of the death penalty was the game changer.  If not for the existence of the electric chair, Heirens may have decided to roll the dice at trial.

Was William Heirens a saint?  Certainly not.  At the very least, he was a burglar.  But was he a murderer?  We’ll never known for sure.

The William Heirens case is one of many included in The Casebook of Forensic Detection.

Bubba Watson

No more car payments!

It’s been a good year for Bubba Watson.  Back in January, Watson bought the original General Lee from the Duke of Hazzard TV show for $110,000.  How to pay for such an expensive ride?  Well, Watson had been planning to sell his house … but after winning $1.44 million in prize money by gutting out a sudden death overtime at the Masters, there’s little chance that Bubba will end up homeless.  Watson hasn’t had a golf lesson since age ten, and doesn’t use a swing coach.  Does he remind you of Tin Cup, too? 

Phil Mickelson was a stroke back entering play on Sunday, but his chances to win the tourney were seriously dented with a triple bogey.  Tiger Woods had an awful weekend, making some wonder if the rumors of his resurgence were greatly exaggerated. 

Baseball

Wow. 21 million bucks.

Baseball owners continue to hand out money like it’s candy.  In the last two deals, teams dropped $96 million on three players. players.  Ian Kinsler, the oft-injured star second baseman for the Texas Rangers, signed a five year deal worth $75 million.  Moments ago, fellow second baseman Brandon Phillips of the Reds signed a six year deal worth $72.5 million.  These are two of the elite second basemen in the game today.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians signed catcher Carlos Santana  to a five year deal worth $21 million, with a club option for 2017.  There’s been an uptick in spending in recent years, much of it financed by big new regional sports television deals.  (Hey, MLB: know how to make the regional deals worth even more?  Get rid of crazy blackout situations like mine – where five teams are blacked out even after I pony up big bucks for MLB Extra Innings).

On the one hand, it’s easy to love these deals as a fan – teams are locking up core contributors for a long period of time.  On the flip side, there’s a lot of financial risk.  Unlike football, baseball contracts are guaranteed.  If Albert Pujols stinks it up this year, the Angels can’t wriggle out of his contract.  I’m definitely concerned about the amount of dead money some teams could have if a player takes a downturn.  My thought would be to have some sort of vesting option.  If a player reaches a certain threshold (125 IP or 350 plate appearances, for example), the next year automatically vests.  This would protect the team while still being better for the players than the “cut you at any time” model of the NFL.

NFL Draft

Teams are hoping that Ryan Tannehill isn't "all hat, no cowboy"

The NFL draft is now just a couple of weeks away.  With Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III sure to be off the board with the first two picks of the draft, attention turns to the third best QB in the draft – Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M.  Tannehill was a wide receiver for two years before getting a chance to player quarterback for the Aggies.  I can’t imagine there’s a long list of players who have accumulated 1500 receiving yards and 5000 passing yards in a career, but Tannehill’s on the list.

The Dolphins desperately want Tannehill, but everyone knows that.  The Dolphins have the eighth pick, so it’s conceivable that a team could trade up in the draft to leapfrog Miami, or that the Dolphins themselves could push higher as a preemptive strike.  Don’t be surprised if Tannehill is among the top six players off the board.

Bobby Petrino

Arkansas placed head coach Bobby Petrino on administrative leave following a motorcycle accident.  At issue is the fact that Petrino lied to his boss regarding the involvement of a second person.  The passenger on the motorcycle was a young woman who worked for Petrino – and with whom he was having an “inappropriate relationship” (his words).  On Tuesday, a crowd gathered to support Petrino.  This is going to get interesting before all is said and done.

Romney is the inevitable GOP nominee

As we get into April and many primaries become winner take all, it’s going to be easier for Mitt Romney to put distance between himself and Rick Santorum.  The carrot for Santorum is the fact that the month of May could hold some big wins for him – including Texas – but he might be in too big of a hole by them.  Currently, Romney leads 655 to 278.  He’s expected to win decisively in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island. 

There’s also the key battle in the Keystone State on the 24th.  If Romney wins Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania, it’s going to be hard to hold out much hope for Santorum.  Honestly, at this point, it’s a question of whether Romney can get to 1144 delegates.  Santorum doesn’t really have a shot at 1144, but if Romney can’t reach the number, a brokered convention could decide the nomination – incentive for Romney to keep the pedal to the metal.

Is Santorum focusing more on 2016 than 2012 at this point?  That’s a definite possibility.  His harsh anti-Romney rhetoric scores points with his own fans, but comments such as the one comparing Romney to Obama can only serve to hurt Romney in the general election.  A candidate in a primary really has two goals.  The first goal is to ensure that their party wins in the general election.  The second goal – a lesser goal, in my mind – is to get themselves elected to be the standard bearer for the party.  Is Rick Santorum handing votes to Barack Obama every day that he stays in the Republican race?  Probably.

The other candidates in the GOP field have really fallen to the side and at this point are really just serving as a spoiler for Santorum.

Billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who has funneled millions of dollars into the Gingrich campaign through Gingrich’s SuperPAC, is putting his checkbook back in his pocket.  At some point, you stop throwing good money after bad.  With his campaign in the red, Gingrich has begun charging $50 per pose for photo ops with supporters.  Yes, $50 for a photo with a guy who finished third in the 2012 Republican primary.  I think Gingrich has the whole concept of “buying votes” a bit backward. 

Is Ron Paul being cheated?

And then there’s Ron Paul.  Paul’s campaign really sheds light on the fact that there are two dimensions to a candidate’s popularity.  The first is the size of the following, and the second is the intensity of their support for the candidate.  Paul is off the charts in terms of average intensity.  The only problem is that all votes count the same – a fervent supporter’s vote doesn’t count any more than a tepid supporters.  A vote is a vote.

Rumors of a third party run are swirling again, but I really don’t see how this is a viable option.  How, exactly, would Paul get enough votes to be viable in the general election?  He’s running fourth in the Republican field, and it’s not likely that he would peel off many liberal votes from the Obama camp.

I’ve also seen some folks in the tinfoil hat brigade allege vote fixing in the primary, pointing to “huge” Ron Paul crowds and saying this with such huge crowds, his vote counts should be higher than the official tallies – so someone must be fixing the numbers.

Recent “evidence” of this is a recent Paul rally in Los Angeles.  His supporters show images of a packed house and allege that there were 10,000 in attendance.  Well, the facility in question (UCLA’s tennis center) has a max capacity of 6,000.  Even if the 10,000 number is accurate, look at this number in context.  The LA metro area has about 12.8 million people.  That would mean that one out of every 1280 people in the LA metro showed up to the event.

Fervent supporters, Paul has.  He just doesn’t have enough of the “grunt” variety who quietly cast votes.