The SoapBoxers

We’re nearly at the quarter pole of the baseball season. What has happened so far?

The Phillies should be scaring the hell out of everyone.  They have the best record in baseball despite not having star second baseman Chase Utley in the lineup.  I hesitate to call a division race this early, but the other NL East teams really needed the Phillies to struggle out of the gate to have a chance.

The Cardinals lost co-ace Adam Wainwright for the season, Matt Holliday had an appendectomy early in the season, and Albert Pujols has been less than Pujolsian so far.  While Pujols has an OK, albeit low for him, homerun total (7), the rest of his numbers are well below his career numbers.  His .273 batting average is well below his career mark of .330 and he has just 3 doubles on the year.  He’s not walking very much, and he’s hitting into double plays at an alarming rate.  Whether it’s the pressure of his looming free agency, or something else, this is a very bad time for him to have the worst season of his career.  On the other hand, Holliday is batting .398 for the season and  free agent acquisition Lance Berkman is hitting .351 with 10 homers – and the Cardinals are in first place.

The Cleveland Indians have shocked everyone by recording the best record in the American League, and have a 4 game lead over the Tigers.  Bringing up the rear in the division are the White Sox and Twins.  Who could have predicted that?  The division also features the two hurlers to record no-hitters this year – Justin Verlander of the Tigers and Francisco Liriano of the Twins.

The Pirates and Red Sox have the same record.  If you predicted that at the beginning of the season, raise your hand, Mr. Liar.  The Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 1992 (sadly, that is NOT a typo).  Can Clint Hurdle push the team to 82 wins?  I really hope so.  In spite of the fact that the Rockies pushed out Hurdle in 2009, I still wish the guy the best.

My Rockies bolted out to an 11-2 record, but have faded lately and enter play on Saturday with a record of 20-16.  Still, that’s good enough for first place, in spite of the fact that we haven’t had many contributions from ace Ubaldo Jimenez, 2010 MVP runner-up Carlos Gonzalez, or third base.  Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has alternated between red hot and ice cold.  Hopefully his 3 for 5 with homer on Friday is the sign of good things to come.  Catcher Chris Iannetta has been deceptively productive.  His batting average is just .224, but his on base percentage has been near .400 recently, and his OPS has been near .900.  Ten of his 19 hits have gone for extra bases, and he has 21 walks on the year.  Overall, I’m happy to see the Rockies in first place – but I thin they’ll need more hands on deck to hold off the hated Giants.

And speaking of hated players … I’m not at all surprised to see Derek Jeter struggling this year.  He was hitting .268 after Friday’s game, but it’s a very soft .268.  He has only two homers on the year (in the same game) and only five total extra base hits.  Jeter put up the worst numbers of his career last year, and his slow start this year has many wondering if his stats are indicative of a decline rather than a mere slump.  Jeter is a shortstop who will soon turn 37, and Father Time is generally not kind to middle infielders.  Jeter, on the other hand, can laugh all the way to the bank after signing a new contract in the off-season what is paying him roughly double what he was likely to have made as a free agent (remember, he would have been a type A free agent, meaning that the signing team would have had to sacrifice a draft pick).

Once again, Albert Pujols is front and center in the world of baseball.  As I write this, we’re closing in on the deadline Albert set for striking a deal.  It seems increasingly unlikely that Pujols will sign a deal prior to the deadline – setting the stage for his possible departure from St. Louis.  While there are a lot of teams that would love to have Pujols in their lineup, are there any willing and able to pony up $30 million per year?  The Yankees and Red Sox have a franchise 1B locked up, and those are usually the two teams with the most cash.

Of course, Pujols played third base earlier in his career.  The Yankees would play him at 3B, move A-Rod back to SS, and turn their aging SS into a utility player.  (I kid, John, I kid.)

Speaking of Yankees … CC Sabathia showed up at camp considerably lighter.  That’s a relative concept for a guy who lugs around 300 pounds on his 6’7″ frame, but he claims to be down 25 pounds from last year.  Based on the photos, I can believe it.  The one concern I always had with CC was his weight.  I always thought that it would eventually cause him to wear down at the end of the year.  It hasn’t happened yet – with Sabathia winning at least 17 games, pitching at least 230 innings, and posting an ERA of 3.37 or better in each of the past 4 seasons – and the weight loss might make him even more durable.  With 157 wins on his resume at age 30, Sabathia remains a solid candidate to be come the next 300 game winner – especially if he can maximize his wins the next few years, before the Yankee core declines too much.  There’s also the possibility that Sabathia could opt out of his deal, but I don’t see that happening.

Off the field …

On Tuesday, President Barack Obama recognized former Cardinal Stan “The Man” Musial with the presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor.  The greatest Cardinal of them all was a 24 time All-Star (note that there were two All Star games each year between 1959 and 1962, with one game benefitting the players’ pension fund).

The ownership of the New York Mets is in flux.  The owners are looking into the possibility of selling a 25% share of the team.  The owners are being sued by Irving Picard (no relation to Jean-Luc), the trustee for victims of Bernie Madoff.  Picard alleges that team ownership withdrew large amounts of false profits from their accounts with Madoff, and should have know that fraud was occurring.  This is the latest in a recent string of off-field issue affecting teams.  The McCourt divorce is still casting uncertainly on the future of the Dodgers.

Spring Training has begun, meaning that winter is officially over.  This means that any subsequent snowfalls will be in violation of federal law.

My picks for the World Series?  As much as I’d like to pick the Rockies, any team with Cole Hamels as their #4 starter  is going to make some noise – so I pick the Phillies from the NL.  In the AL, I’ll give the nod to the Red Sox, who added an extremely good player in Adrian Gonzalez.  My player to watch this season is Homer Bailey.  Although many have already given up on him as a bust, the kid won’t turn 25 until May.  I think he has enough experience under his belt to put together a breakout season in 2011.

As we attempt to corner the market on Pujols-related commentary, Johnny adds his thoughts on the topic.

Pitchers and Catchers are reporting … we are headed into the upcoming baseball season as the NFL appears to be mired in a circus of doom regarding salaries and collective bargaining agreements, or lack thereof.  But another disagreement regarding salary is looming large on the horizon in Major League Baseball.  The Cardinals current inability to come to terms with Albert Pujols.

No realistic talks have taken place for a few weeks.  The Cardinals are offering 30 million a year for 5 years.  That is some fat money no matter how good you are in baseball terms.  Prince Albert is allegedly looking for a bit more security and wants 10 years in a new contract, to the tune of about 300 million.

There have been some other large contracts recently in the majors that after the fact never seem to look all that good.  Pedro Martinez signed for humongous cash and promptly put two to three epic years on the mound, but then injuries and age caught him quicker than anyone could have imagined.

Most people point out the ridiculous contract that was penned by Alex Rodriguez, both in terms of numbers of years and also total amount of money.  Can any one player live up to that type of value?  For the type of money and length of contract that is being desired by Pujols, the Cardinals could instead get 3 major impact players for the ballclub.  So … why would they want to sign him for this type of money?

In the age of Free Agency, few players are the face of the franchise like Pujols currently is.  A few others come to mind.  Derek Jeter of the Yankees, Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies, Ichiro of the Mariners … and I am sure there are others.  But most any player that starts out on a small market team does not stay there long.  The money is too great and there is always the deep pockets of teams like the Red Sox and Yankees ready to pony up the funds to bring in some guns for hire.  Signing Pujols long term means you are paying a premium to keep him around as the centerpiece of your St Louis Cardinals, where you plan on having him stay.

Pujols also has numbers to back up getting a ridiculous contract.  Ten straight years of hitting over .300 and knocking in over 100 runs.  That is something even Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig cannot claim to have done.  Pujols is at the top of the list for doing this and is still in his prime.  He has endured this streak through injuries and is perennially among conversations involving the Triple Crown. (leading the league in Batting Average, Homers and Runs Batted In)  The last player to win a triple crown was Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 as he single handedly propelled the Red Sox into the World Series where they lost to … guess who … yep, the same Cardinals.  Stats Like these with Pujols don’t lie, he is worthy of the largest contract in the league.

The flip side is he is 10 years into his career.  At what point does he start to decline?  Will injuries continue to creep into his playing time?  Can he keep this up forever?  What does a contract like this do to the ability to sign other good players in the competitive National League Central?

These are all questions that the Cardinals organization as well as the fans of St Louis need to be taking into consideration.  The good news for the Cardinals is it is late in the game.  I am not sure at this stage when teams have restructured their contracts and loaded up in Free Agency that they could pay Albert the type of money he is looking for either.  To me it seems like we are witnessing a real world game of chicken, albeit for a lot of money … and the key to playing chicken…you gotta know when the other guy is going to flinch.

Stay Classy St Louis!

Wednesday is the deadline Albert Pujols has set for negotiating a new deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.  If the sides are unable to reach a deal by then, it will have to wait until the end of the season – and Pujols might opt to become a free agent.

Last year, I posted a May Fools Day article claiming that Pujols signed a contract extension with the Cardinals.  Obviously, Pujols’s demand were slightly exaggerated (the St. Louis Arch is not on the table), but not by much.  The parameters that have been kicked around are 10 years at $30 million per year.  I’m not going to get into a debate about whether athletes are overpaid, but instead look at the issues surrounding this particular deal.

You might think the biggest problem is the money.  Sure, $30 million per year is some serious cash, but it’s been fairly apparent for a number of years that Pujols would ask for this kind of money.  He has established himself as one of the best – if not THE best – players in the game, and Alex Rodriguez has set the market for the über-elite at $25-$30 million per year.  It certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cardinals sign him to a deal paying $30 million per year.

The real sticking point is the length of the deal.  Pujols wants a ten year deal.  When the deal expires at the end of the 2020 season, Pujols would be nearly 41 years old.  That’s not old in human terms, but it is ancient for a baseball players.  As you look down the rosters of MLB teams, you’re only going to encounter a few guys on the downside of 40.  Even the players who are still around at 40 have seen their skills diminish greatly – an effect of the aging process.  Pujols plays first base, which isn’t as prone to dramatic drop-offs as middle infielders or catchers – but the odds of a 40 year old Pujols making a run at the MVP aren’t likely.

What this boils down to is that the 2011 version of Pujols at $30 million might make a lot of sense, but paying $30 million for Pujols in 2020 – even after accounting for fact that inflation will likely erode the value of that salary – might not.

So, then, why don’t the Cardinals simply sign him to the 10 year deal and then cut him when his skills erode?  Because baseball contracts are guaranteed.  Once the player signs a deal, he’s going to get the money – unless he opts to retire.  You can’t simply wash your hands of the deal after a few years, a la the NFL.

So, then, what’s the answer?  I personally think that vesting options are the way to go.  Make maybe 6 years of the deal guaranteed.  After that point, if Pujols reaches certain levels of performance, an option for the next year is automatically triggered.  This protects the Cardinals from a situation where Pujols has declined to the point of being a platoon player, while at the same time getting Pujols maximum value if he stays healthy and productive.

Many observers have said that Pujols is worth more to the Cardinals than he is to any other team, due to the fact that he is such a huge fan favorite in St. Louis.  I have always agreed with this sentiment.  However, a recent suggestion has made me re-think this.  The suggestion was that the Cubs – who have 1B Carlos Peña on a  1 year contract – might make a run at Pujols.  This move would strengthen the Cubs at the same time it weakened their hated rivals – and would turn the rivalry even more bitter.

One interesting, yet overlooked issue … the Cardinals could opt to offer Pujols arbitration at the end of the year.  In fact, they would need to in order to receive compensation for losing him as a free agent.  If the Cardinals offer and an Pujols accepts, it would set the stage for an extremely interesting arbitration hearing.

Various media outlets are reporting that the St. Louis Cardinals have reached a deal with future Hall of Fame first baseman Albert Pujols.  The ten year deal will run from 2012-2021.  The most interesting aspect of the deal is that there is no cash involved.

GM John Mozeliak sat down with reporter Scoop Chevelle to discuss the deal.

“Well, Albert has always been a big part of the St. Louis community and has expressed great interest in furthering his investments in the St. Louis metropolitan area.”

When pressed for details, Mozeliak shared more information:

“Well, first of all, we’re handing him the keys to the Cardinals, of course.  If you run the numbers, it’s actually much cheaper to give him the team and a few bonus items than it would be to actually pay him cash.”

And what bonus items were included in the deal?

“The first thing Albert asked for was the famous Arch.  We expected that demand, and quickly handed over the deed.  Albert will also receive the St. Louis Zoo and all of the animal residents.”

Was there anything that Pujols asked for and didn’t receive?

“We didn’t buckle to every demand, of course.  He asked for the Mississippi River.  Honestly, that was a bridge too far, and we couldn’t do that.  He settled for the Missouri River, and everyone seemed to be happy with the compromise.”

Scoop next went to the streets to get the reaction from the public.

“Hey, the team needed to sign Pujols at any cost, you know?” commented Dave A.  “You gotta pay for quality, man.  You need to pay for quality.”

Others were less accepting of the deal.

“I really don’t understand how he could have received Kaufman stadium as part of the deal,” complained Kansas City resident George B.

George’s neighbor Frank W. echoed those sentiments.  “Yeah, isn’t Kaufman Stadium owned by another team?  How can the Cardinals just give it away?”

Commissioner Bud Selig attempted to smooth ruffled feathers.  Selig indicated that the deal was perfectly valid, and that his powers to act “in the best interests of baseball” created eminent domain to take Kaufman Stadium from the Royals and give it to Pujols.

Other residents of the state balked at the idea of the Gateway Arch passing into private hands.  Jon Jarvis, Director of the National Park Service, told us that he had left a voicemail for Pujols and was anxiously awaiting a return call.  “The Gateway Arch is a National Monument and has historically been under the custodianship of the National Park Service.  We at the NPS are very interested in knowing Mr. Pujols’ intentions.”

We attempted to reach Pujols for comment, but Colby Rasmus and Matt Holliday kept us away from him.  After that misadventure, we reached out to an unidentified employee of Pujols Manor.  The employee indicated that Albert had plans to turn the Arch into his private residence, allowing him to have great views of Busch Stadium and the riverfront.

Ryan Howard of the Phillies, who recently signed a deal for only $25 million per year, was said to be despondent at getting one-upped by Pujols yet again.

Yankee General Manager Brian Cashman had a cynical take on the deal.  “This is an obvious attempt to circumvent the luxury tax.  I mean, how do you value these assets?  Take the zoo, for example.  What’s an elephant worth?  Or a tiger?  The Cardinals should be ashamed of themselves.” 

This breaking news was brought to you by the fine folks at FNN, the Fake News Network.

With the baseball season just around the corner (really – it is!), here are some things to watch in 2010.  We’ll likely have a few articles on this topic.  The order for these articles will be the ever-popular “whatever happens to pop in my head today”.

The Nationals

All the hoopla was about the signing of Stephen Strasburg, but the Nationals also put a bit of money into the team during free agency.  They didn’t go crazy with the money (15M over 2 years for Jason Marquis being the costliest deal).  Nor did they cost themselves draft picks by signing any Type A free agents.  What they did do is make several low risk moves.  The deal I like best is Chien-Ming Wang signing a 2M deal for 2010.  Wang won’t be healthy enough to pitch until May, following recent surgery.  However, if he can return to the form that saw him go a combined 28-13 over 400+ innings during the 2006 and 2007 seasons, then it’s money well spent.

The gNats also picked up several other guys who could help them.  Ivan Rodriguez behind the dish, Matt Capps in the pen, and Adam Kennedy at 2B are among the guys who could help.  They also have some decent players already in the lineup.  Perhaps this is the year that people realize that Adam Dunn is a fine offensive player who just happen to be weak in the areas that critics like to jump on – strikeouts and batting average.  Seriously, folks, strikeouts just aren’t that big of a deal – and Dunn makes up for his batting average by walking a ton.  Oh, yeah, and he hits lots of homers.  (Let’s not talk about his defense.

Am I suggesting that the Nationals will make the playoffs?  Holy crap – of course not.  But they’ll no longer be the laughingstock of the league.  That honor will fall upon the Pirates some unknown team.

The Rockies

Hey, I’m a Rockies fan,  so of course I think the Rockies are a story to watch.  But, really, they ARE a story to watch this year.  Prior to 2007, the Rockies had made the playoffs exactly once – in 1995.  In the last three seasons, they have made the playoffs twice.  Many fans tend to write them off as a fluke because both seasons were characterized by very slow starts and red-hot second halves.  If the Rockies can put together a strong wire-to-wire season in 2010, more people may look at them as legitimate perennial playoffs contenders.

There are lots of young players to watch with the Rockies.  If Troy Tulowitzki can avoid the disastrously slow that plagued him last year, he may make a run at an MVP award.  Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ian Stewart should all take another step forward.  Youngster Jhoulys Chacin may also crack the rotation this year.  Starting pitcher Jeff Francis will be returning from injury.

The rise of the Rockies could be aided by the divorce of Frank and Jamie McCourt.  The McCourts own the Dodgers – and we all saw what happened to the Padres in the aftermath of the divorce of their owners, John and Becky Moores.

The Cardinals

Not only did re-signing Matt Holliday make the Cardinals a force to be reckoned with in the near future, but it also sent a strong message to Albert Pujols that management is truly interested in having a strong team around him (and thus making it more likely that they will be able to re-sign him).  I’ve been impressed with Pujols since seeing him during his brief stint with the Peoria Chiefs (low A).  Making Albert Pujols happy is a good idea.

On the field, Pujols and Holliday are a fearsome combination in the 3-4 spots in the lineup and Carpenter and Wainright similarly strike fear in opposing hitters at the top of the rotation.  I’m struggling to find a scenario that doesn’t have the Cardinals winning the NL Central, barring a major injury.  Sure, the Cubs might be capable of a run, but you know they’ll find some way to mess it up.