The SoapBoxers

By claiming a trophy on Monday, Detroit’s Justin Verlander threw another can of gasoline into the age-old debate: should pitchers be eligible for the MVP award?

Detractors who say pitchers – in particular, starting pitchers – should not be eligible generally give the same reason.  A starting pitcher plays in only one in every five games.  In 80% of games, he has absolutely no impact on the game. 

I’m firmly in the camp that believes that pitchers should be included in the MVP voting.  I think that some people overestimate the involvement of the other position players.

Within a typical game, there are around somewhere around 250-300 plays.  In general, the critical piece of the play is a pitch (125 – 150 per team per game).  Sometimes the pitch is hit for a homer, sometimes the pitch is a 99 mph heater for strike 3, sometimes the pitch is high and outside for ball 2.  Regardless of the result, the play involves the pitcher putting forth effort.

Let’s use the low estimates of 125 pitches per team per game, or 250 total pitches.  If the pitcher goes 7 innings, he’ll participate in roughy 7/9 of those 125 pitcher, or 97 pitches.  That’s 38.8% of the plays.  Of course, the pitcher only plays in 20% of those games, so we divide that number by 5.  Thus a starting pitching should be actively involved in 7.76% of plays over the course of a season.

That sounds pretty low, huh?

Designated hitters are eligible for MVP consideration.  I’ll pick on the DH because I hate it and wish for it to be abolished.  The DH will typically account for about 11% (1/9) of his team’s at bats.  However, he plays 0% of the time on defense, so he’s involved in 5.5% of plays.  Should we remove DHs from MVP consideration.  (Better yet, abolish it altogether?)

The DH isn’t the best example, of course.  Let’s look at a shortstop.  In the course of the game, the shortstop might be record a “chance” (baseball term for a putout, assist, or errror) on six plays and glove the ball twice more on plays that go for hits.  That’s active involvement in 8 of 125 defensive plays, or 6.4%.  Average that with the 11% (1/9) of offensive plays, and the shortstop’s involvement is 8.7%.  More than the pitcher, but not appreciably so.

True fans might be jumping ahead of me here.  The catcher, of course, is involved in probably 75% of defensive plays (exceptions being balls hits into play and foul balls) as well as 11% of offensive plays – a staggering 43% of all plays!  While that’s true, in the vast majority of those case, the catcher is the tertiary actor.  I’d argue that it’s harder for the pitcher to throw a pinpoint strike, and harder for the hitter to hit the ball, than it is for the catcher to catch the ball and throw in back to the catcher.

What’s my point?

My point is that a starting pitcher might only play in 20% of a team’s game, he has huge influence in those games.  Verlander giving up no runs and two hits over eight innings has more impact than Albert Pujols going 1-4 with a single.  Look through the game log of any hitter – there are tons of games where a good hitter does very little to help him team.  Perhaps as high as 80% 🙂

There’s much debate in Washington – and much discussion around the nation – about whether or not to raise the nation’s debt ceiling. Realistically, everyone knows that the debt ceiling must be raised. In recent history, neither party has had a track record of balancing the budget. There’s chatter about cutting spending, but when the rubber hits the road, members of both parties have their own pet projects.

Wondering how to make some money in the financial markets?  Figure out where the money will go after the gold bubble bursts.  When people realize that the speculators have turned gold into a de facto currency – while at the same time criticizing de jure (fiat) currency – they may realized that investing in shiny rocks might not be the best idea in the world.  When the crash comes, investors will be scrambling for a safe place to put their money.  If you can figure out where they will put their money, you might be able to ride a bit of a surge when demand outstrips supply in that market (at which point, you should consider selling).

The NFL owners ratified a new labor deal with the union. It could be a while before the players ratify the same deal. More often than not, I side with players in sports labor issues – but not this time. I really feel that many of the tactics of the players – most notably their sham decertification of union (a union which continues to bargain on their behalf) – amount to bargaining in bad faith. I’d actually be interesting in having the courts weigh in on the issues. If a deal isn’t done soon, we’re looking at the possibility of some lost games (pre-season, at least) and a compressed off-season. The proposed shortened free agency period seems like a very bad deal for the players – giving them little time to shop around for a deal. Personally, I’ve been staying away from the NFL for the last two years after my team signed Brett Favre – and I’m really close to walking away from the NFL permanently. There’s plenty of baseball year-round to keep my occupied.

The Colorado Rockies have been listening to trade offers for ace Ubaldo Jimenez.  In talks with the Yankees, they were reportedly looking for a deal in which Yankees catching prospect Jesus Montero – an elite hitting prospect – did not make up the bulk of the value in the deal.  Although Jimenez’s number are not close to his 15-1 start at the beginning of last year, he’s not doing as poorly as you might thing.  After a horrible start to the year (0-5, 5.86 ERA though the end of May), Jimenez is 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA since June 1.  A big key to his success has been a dramatic reduction in number of walks.  Jimenez has also been downright dominant this year on the road – a 2.28 ERA and a stunningly low .158 batting average allowed.  I’d prefer to keep Jimenez, but I trust GM Dan O’Dowd.  After all, he did very well in the Matt Holliday trade, obtaining Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street in the deal.

I’ve been reading an old book by a favorite author lately. The Kindle edition of Lawrence Block’s Killing Castro is available for $2.99.  Not only in the story set in 1961, it was published in 1961 under a pen name.  I’m about 75% of the way through the book, and am thoroughly enjoyed it.  How often can you read a 50 year old book by an author who is still producing new books?

Speaking of Amazon … if you like The Soap Boxers, consider using the big Amazon ad at the top of the right side of the screen as your entry point into Amazon.  This will give us a small commission when you buy things, and there is no additional cost to you.  Consider this to be payment for the many articles on this site 🙂

Darren Wieters felt the butterflies in his stomach. The 39 year old had been working toward this moment for his entire career. It was the final game of the season, and Wieters had entered the game with 2994 career hits. The sports world was resigned to the fact that Wieters would have to come back one more year to enter the 3000 hit club.

Wieters privately wondered if his body could take another year of abuse. His left knee would need to be scoped in the off-season, and the shoulder needed the cortisone shots more frequently in recent years. Another regimen of off-season workouts, just to stay in shape for a handful of hits next year. That did not sound like much fun at all – but it was the price of greatness.

Wieters had left off the game with a single. Another single in the third, a double in the fifth, a double in the sixth, and yet another single in the eighth had put him on the cusp of history. He had five hits in five at bats, pushing his career hits total to 2999 – the brink of immortality.

Wieters watched Sean Graham line out hard to the third baseman for the first out of the inning. Wieters collected himself, took a deep breath, and took the short walk toward the batter’s box.

“Go get ’em, Dee Dub” yelled Graham. Wieters nodded absently, lost in his thoughts.

The flashbulbs around the park lit up the darkness. Every fan in the stands knew the importance of this moment. Just one more hit would stamp Wieters’ ticket to the Hall of Fame. Any hit would do – an infield single or a home run – it didn’t make a difference. Another hit would also give Wieters a rare six hit game – and make him the first to ever reach the 3000 hit plateau with a six hit game.

The opposition, however, was not going to simply roll over. Especially not in a tie game. The Dragons pitching coach jogged out to the mound and signaled for a lefty to come in to face Wieters.

Wieters took some unhappy practice swings – annoyed not only by the prospect of an unfavorable lefty-lefty match-up, but also with the delay in the action.

Finally, the southpaw finished his warm-up pitches and toed the rubber. Wieters dug in at the plate. Wieters knew that this guy would try to get him to expand his strike zone, so he watched the mid-90s fastball go – barely missing the plate.

The next pitch got more of the plate than the pitcher had planned, and Wieters drove the ball toward deep center field. The crowd roared when they realized that the ball was going to fall in for a hit. Wieters felt the presence of first base under his feet – his #3000! He never broke his stride and raced toward second. As he neared the bag, the third base coach was giving him the stop sign, but Wieters knew he could beat the throw. He kicked it into high gear and roared toward third base. He would become only the second player to enter the 3000 hit club with a triple!

He lost his footing as he approached third base. He stumbled, then fell – but his momentum was still propelling him toward the bag. He reached for the base. Yes – his hand was in before the tag!

“OUT!” roared the ump.

Wieters jump up in protest. The blind bat had missed the call. A piece of history, and he had just blown the call. Wieters was fuming and gave the the man in blue a piece of his mind.

“Yer outta here” yelled Blue when he finally lose patience with Weiters, ejecting the future Hall of Famer from his final game. Wieters shared a few more choice words before retreated toward the dugout. As he approached, Sean Graham tossed him a ball. Wieters grabbed it angrily and hurled it into the stands. He grabbed a bat and began a vicious assault on the water cooler.

It took Darren Wieters a moment to realize that Graham has tossed him the ball from his 3000th hit – and that in his anger he had discarded it like a piece of trash.

If you’ve been reading The Soap Boxers very long, then you know that I’m a big baseball fan.  Major league baseball has been around since 1876, and teams play a game almost every day, so there’s an almost bottomless well of trivia to tap into. 

So without further ado, let’s jump in. All question refer solely to stats achieved in the Major Leagues – but these questions aren’t for rookies! Answers are at at the bottom (below the wonderful selection of baseball-related items).
 
 

1)  From the moment Hank Aaron homered off Al Downing on April 8, 1974 until Barry Bonds broke hit his 756th home run on August 7, 2007, Aaron was the career home run king, with 755 home runs. How many times did Aaron hit more than 50 homers in a season?

2) This pitcher won an MVP and Cy Young and also tossed a no-hitter. He won 197 games in his Hall of Fame career, recording his final career start in 1987.

3) Who has the longest hitting streak of any living Hall of Famer?

4) Hall of Famers are often selected to a great many All Star games during their career. Of the Hall of Famers who played their entire careers in the All Star Game era, which two players have the distinction of being selected to the FEWEST All-Star games?

5) On April 25, 1935, the Pittsburgh Pirates allowed a member of the Boston Braves to hit three home runs against them. Why was this significant?

6) On September 7, 1974, Graig Nettles of the Yankees broke his bat during a game. What happened next?

7) This Hall of Famer homered in his first career at bat … and never hit another home run.

8 ) On July 15, 1994, pitcher Jason Grimsley stole something from a locked room in a major league stadium. What did he steal?

9) On July 6, 1983, Fred Lynn homered off Atlee Hammaker. What is significant about Lynn’s homer?

Answers:

1) Aaron never hit more than 50 homers in a season – but he did hit at least 40 in eight seasons.

2) Dennis Eckersley threw a no-hitter for the Indians in 1977. His final career START was in 1987 … after which he became a full time closer. He notched 390 career saves. His 51 saves and 1.91 ERA in 1992 earned him the Cy Young and MVP Awards. Yep, I threw some red herrings into this one 🙂

3) Joe Dimaggio hit in 56 straight games, but he is dead. Hit King Pete Rose had a 44 game hitting streak and is still alive – but isn’t a Hall of Famer. This makes Paul Molitor’s 39 game streak in 1987 the longest of any living Hall of Famer.

4) Ferguson Jenkins and Robin Yount were each chosen for three All Star Games. Interestingly, Yount was snubbed in his 1989 MVP season. When Bert Blyleven is inducted next month, he’ll set the bar even lower – he made only two All-Star teams.

5) Those home runs were the final three homers of Babe Ruth’s career. After playing for the Red Sox and most famously the Yankees, he was lured to the Boston Braves with the possibility of eventually becoming the team’s manager.

6) Six super balls flew out of the bat. Nettles said the bat was a gift from a Yankees fan in Chicago. Whether Nettles or the fan doctored the bat, you have to give them bonus points for creativity.

7) Hoyt Wilhelm didn’t start his career until he was just shy of his 30th birthday. When he retired 20 years later, he had appeared in 1070 games (most as a reliever) and racked up 227 saves. The home run he hit on April 23, 1952, was the only dinger of his career.

8 ) Grimsley, then playing for the Cleveland Indians, climbed through the air ducts to retrieve a bat from the umpires’ room. The bat was seized from Indians slugger Albert Belle under suspicion of being corked.

9) Lynn’s homer in the 1983 All Star Game was the first – and only – grand slam in All Star Game history.

OK – how well did you do?

We’re nearly at the quarter pole of the baseball season. What has happened so far?

The Phillies should be scaring the hell out of everyone.  They have the best record in baseball despite not having star second baseman Chase Utley in the lineup.  I hesitate to call a division race this early, but the other NL East teams really needed the Phillies to struggle out of the gate to have a chance.

The Cardinals lost co-ace Adam Wainwright for the season, Matt Holliday had an appendectomy early in the season, and Albert Pujols has been less than Pujolsian so far.  While Pujols has an OK, albeit low for him, homerun total (7), the rest of his numbers are well below his career numbers.  His .273 batting average is well below his career mark of .330 and he has just 3 doubles on the year.  He’s not walking very much, and he’s hitting into double plays at an alarming rate.  Whether it’s the pressure of his looming free agency, or something else, this is a very bad time for him to have the worst season of his career.  On the other hand, Holliday is batting .398 for the season and  free agent acquisition Lance Berkman is hitting .351 with 10 homers – and the Cardinals are in first place.

The Cleveland Indians have shocked everyone by recording the best record in the American League, and have a 4 game lead over the Tigers.  Bringing up the rear in the division are the White Sox and Twins.  Who could have predicted that?  The division also features the two hurlers to record no-hitters this year – Justin Verlander of the Tigers and Francisco Liriano of the Twins.

The Pirates and Red Sox have the same record.  If you predicted that at the beginning of the season, raise your hand, Mr. Liar.  The Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 1992 (sadly, that is NOT a typo).  Can Clint Hurdle push the team to 82 wins?  I really hope so.  In spite of the fact that the Rockies pushed out Hurdle in 2009, I still wish the guy the best.

My Rockies bolted out to an 11-2 record, but have faded lately and enter play on Saturday with a record of 20-16.  Still, that’s good enough for first place, in spite of the fact that we haven’t had many contributions from ace Ubaldo Jimenez, 2010 MVP runner-up Carlos Gonzalez, or third base.  Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has alternated between red hot and ice cold.  Hopefully his 3 for 5 with homer on Friday is the sign of good things to come.  Catcher Chris Iannetta has been deceptively productive.  His batting average is just .224, but his on base percentage has been near .400 recently, and his OPS has been near .900.  Ten of his 19 hits have gone for extra bases, and he has 21 walks on the year.  Overall, I’m happy to see the Rockies in first place – but I thin they’ll need more hands on deck to hold off the hated Giants.

And speaking of hated players … I’m not at all surprised to see Derek Jeter struggling this year.  He was hitting .268 after Friday’s game, but it’s a very soft .268.  He has only two homers on the year (in the same game) and only five total extra base hits.  Jeter put up the worst numbers of his career last year, and his slow start this year has many wondering if his stats are indicative of a decline rather than a mere slump.  Jeter is a shortstop who will soon turn 37, and Father Time is generally not kind to middle infielders.  Jeter, on the other hand, can laugh all the way to the bank after signing a new contract in the off-season what is paying him roughly double what he was likely to have made as a free agent (remember, he would have been a type A free agent, meaning that the signing team would have had to sacrifice a draft pick).

Inspired by Andre Ethier’s hitting streak … at 29 games and counting when I wrote this.  If this jinxes Ethier … well, that’s kind of the point.  I hate the Dodgers.

Derek Bond looked around the sold out stadium. The old facility was bulging at the seams with a standing room only crowd. He smiled broadly, thinking of how the night would change his life. His appearance fee would certainly triple, to say nothing of the commemorative items that would make him a fortune.

Derek watched an inferior teammate ground out weakly to short. As the bum returned to the dugout, the team’s brightest star stepped to the plate.

The first pitch caught much more of the plate that the pitcher had hoped for, and Derek took a healthy swing and drove the ball to deep center field. The outfielder raced to keep up with the ball, then made a well time jump at the wall. He landed with a thud at the base of the wall, where he sat stunned for a moment. Then he jumped up, pulled the ball from his glove and fired it back toward the infield.

When Derek returned to the dugout, he took out his frustration on the water cooler as his teammates scattered. How sweet it would have been to extend his hitting streak to 56 games with a home run. It would have made him even more of a legend than he already was.

Derek had his second chance at history in the fourth inning. He wasn’t sure what the score was. He thought perhaps his team was winning. The important thing was to get a hit and keep the streak alive. An inside fastball brushed against his elbow pad and the umpire awarded him first base.

Derek came to the plate in the seventh inning, certain that this would be his historic moment. Unfortunately, the pitcher experienced a bout of wildness, and Derek watched four pitches sail wide of the strike.

“Hey, it’s the hitless wonder,” jeered the opposing first baseman as Bond took his place on the bag.

“I’ll get my hit” replied Bond sharply.

“Runnin’ out of time,” came the reply. “By my reckoning, you’ve got one shot left.”

Derek reflected on the situation and agreed that he’d probably only have one more at bat in the game. He’d have to make it count. After the next hitter struck out, his nemesis crossed Derek’s path on the way back to the opposing dugout.

“Hey, I’ll buy some of that champagne for half price,” mocked the first baseman.

Was it possible that the pitchers were actively attempting to break his streak, with little regard to how it affected the game? Was the pitch that hit him really an accident? Was it a coincidence that the pitcher couldn’t find the strike zone during his last at bat? Derek tried to put the thoughts out of his mind.

When Derek came to the plate in the ninth, the crowd gave him a thunderous ovation. History was still within his grasp. He just needed one insignificant little hit. A blooper to the outfield, a ground ball that found a hole – anything would do. One hit and he would be immortalized.

The first pitch was low and away and Derek took the pitch for a ball. The pitcher hit the same target on the next pitch, running the count to 2-0. When the pitcher hit the same spot a third time, Derek realized that he wasn’t going to see a better pitch. These bums didn’t care about the game – they just wanted to see his streak end.

As the next pitch neared the plate, Derek lunged to reach the pitch, which was far off the plate. He felt the bat make solid contact and saw the white missile shoot high into the night sky. The center fielder didn’t move an inch – he just watched the home run ball fly into the stands.

As the crowd went wild, Derek heard the umpire shout something.

“OUT!” yelled the man in blue, as he pointed at the plate. “You stepped on the plate,” he explained. “You’re out.”

And thus the streak ended not with a bang, but with a whimper – falling victim to a technicality.

The first weekend of the NCAA tournament is over, and what havoc the upsets have wrought!  Three of the regions have at least one seed 8th or lower still alive, and the wacky Southwest region has the 10, 11, and 12 seeds still alive – ensuring that a 10 seed or worse will make it to the elite 8.

Virginia Commonwealth won three games in a span three games in a span of six days, beating USC in the play-in game (now known as a “first round” game) before beating #6 seed Georgetown and finally thrashing #3 seed Purdue 94-76 on Sunday.  The Rams face the Seminoles of Florida State (10 seed) in the next round.

Michigan made tournament history in their first round game, becoming the first team to ever win a tournament game without making a single free throw.  It’s not as bad as it sounds, though – the Wolverines only attempted one free throw.

I went out on a limb this year and picked a lot of upsets in my bracket.  Unfortunately, I picked the upsets that didn’t happen, while missing the ones that did.  While I correctly picked Butler to make it to the Sweet 16, I also predicted that Belmont and Bucknell would still be dancing.  Akron and Princeton also let me down, failing to win their games against Notre Dame and Kentucky.

Overall, my bracket is in horrible shape – but it can still be saved.  I have San Diego State cutting down the nets on April 4.  If that happens, I can stll emerge victorious.  Aztec Nation, I am one of you!

Disappointing sports weekend for the state of Iowa

While none of the men’s teams from Iowa made the NCAA tournament, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, and Iowa all made the field for the women’s tournament.  Unfortunately, they were all wiped out in the first round.  I forgot that the ISU women’s game was on ESPN2 until halfway through the second half.  I switched over the game, only to see Marist in full control.

At the NCAA wrestling tournament, Iowa State’s Jonathan Reader won a title in an otherwise disappointing weekend for the Cyclones.  The only bright spot was the fact that arch-rival Iowa was thwarted in their quest to win a third straight national title, as the Hawkeyes finished behind Penn State and Lehigh.  Even that silver lining had a cloud, as Penn State was lead by former Iowa State wrestler and coach Cael Sanderson.  The Nittany Lions won their first title in more than 50 years.

Get your baseball geek on

A friend of mine has developed a baseball simulation engine.  You pick a pitcher and a hitter, and he’ll spit out the results of a full season’s worth of plate appearances.  The app is now available as a web app and on Facebook, and will soon be available for Android.  More details from the mouth of the developer:

AtBatSim puts advanced simulation into the hands of baseball fans. Simulate at-bats between an MLB pitcher and hitter of your choice. While you’re watching a game, try out the simulator to get the inside track on what might happen next.

Sabermetric research has shown that pitchers have limited influence on what happens when a hitter puts a ball in play. This simulator puts an average defense on the field, and lets them react to hit balls. Fast players beat out more ground balls and stretch outfield hits into doubles and triples more often. You can simulate 700 plate appearances in seconds and get one detailed play as an example.

AtBatSim is available on the web http://www.atbatsim.com and as a Facebook app at http://apps.facebook.com/atbatsim/ . AtBatSim is targeting a release of an Android App by Opening Day 2011.

You can help by trying it out and offering feedback so the ratings and simulator improve over time…and of course by spreading the word on Facebook and telling your friends and co-workers about it.

I’ve heard that sentiment expressed many times over the years, in a variety of ways.  More than being merely a Rockies fan, I’m a proponent of the game itself.  I personally feel that people who only catch glimpses of the game every once and a while aren’t really getting the big picture.  For one thing, there are are between 250 and 300 plays in a baseball game.  Traditionally, we call these plays “pitches”.  Most of the pitches end innocently enough – with a foul ball, a called strike, or a weak ground ball to the second baseman.  But the game can also turn very quickly at any point.  A team’s down 1-0 in the seventh inning, bases are loaded, two outs.  If the batter makes an out, the opponent clings to a tentative lead.  If he hits a grand slam, his team has a pretty decisive lead.

There are also many games within the game itself.  Watch how a pitcher works a hitter to exploit weaknesses.  Will the manager pull the pitcher to take advantage of a better matchup (righty/lefty) or leave his ace in the game?  There’s a runner on first in the late innings of a tight game.  Do you bunt the guy over to second or let the hitter swing away?

Baseball is also a game that gives a team every opportunity to come back.  There is no clock – you’re allowed to make three outs in each innings, regardless of how long it takes.  You can rally from a 15-0 deficit with two outs in the bottom of the ninth – you simply need to keep getting hits.  The odds are stacked against you, but you still have a chance.  Let’s say you’re likewise getting clobbered in a football game – down 56-0 (roughly equivalent to a 15-0 baseball game) with a minute to go (roughly equivalent to 1/54 of a baseball game remaining).  Can you rally and win?  No.  You’d need to recover several onside kicks and then run an offensive play to score each time.  Each play eats up time, and there’s simply not enough time remaining.

An additional charm of baseball is the fact that there are still a lot of unknowns in baseball’s metrics.  Variations of the game date back as far as the mid 1700s, with the first game with a formal set of rules being played in 1846 (by comparison, James Naismith invented basketball in 1891).  Yet, 165 years after that 1846 game, much is unsettled.  Every few years, new theories abound on the best ways to measure performance.  For a while, OPS was the definitive offensive stat.  Now, wOBA is gaining steam.  And what about win shares?  How much control does a pitcher have over his ERA?  Defense is probably the biggest debate of all, with various methods to judge defensive effectiveness.

Heck, there is even a Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) – a group of volunteers who pay for the privilege of doing research.

The, of course, is a daily aspect of the game.  162 games, spanning from late March through early October, with a post-season stretching into November.  There are no teams that get into the playoffs because of a few lucky bounces.  There may be teams that are fortunate to be in a relatively weak division, but they still prove their superiority over their divisional foes by facing them repeatedly throughout the season.  There are only a handful of off days for a team during the season – and they are staggered so that there are always at least a few games taking place on any given day.  For someone who loves a sport, what could be better than games every single day?

My only complaint is that the season is too short …

Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?

As we approach the 70th anniversary of Joe DiMaggio’s magical 56 game hitting streak in 1941, some have asked whether this record will ever be broken.  I’m confident in saying no.  Let’s run the numbers.

Let’s take your average run of the mill .400 hitter.  Nobody has hit .400 for a season since Ted Williams in that same year of 1941, but let’s set that aside for a moment.  Let’s also assume that the hitter gets 5 at bats in every game (that’s unreasonably high – only a few hitters approach 4.5, with most in the low 4s).  What are the odds of him getting a 56 game streak through random chance?

Well, the odds of getting at least one hit in any particular game is (1-(.6^5))  – more than 92%.  But raise that probably (.92224) to the power of 56 and we get just .01.  In an absolute best case scenario, there’s a 1% chance of this happening to that particular player in any random 56 game stretch.  Drop the at bats to 4 per game, and there’s 1 chance in 2375.  Make the batting average a more realistic .300 and the chances are 1 in 28863 with 5 at bats per game and 1 in 4,760,352 with 4.

Then, of course, you must realize that the opposing pitcher has some control.  Let’s say a guy has a 50 game hitting streak, and he’s facing the Yankees (DiMaggio’s own team).  The pitchers can’t simply walk him every time up.  That wouldn’t break the streak, as by rule a player must have an official at bat (walks are plate appearances, but not at bats) for a streak to be broken.  However, the pitchers COULD walk him after he had recorded an out in his first at bat (even a .400 hitter will make out out 60% of the time).

A few weeks ago, I was perusing Robin Yount’s Wikipedia page and saw the note that Yount and Fergie Jenkins were tied for the fewest All Star game appearances among Hall of Famers who played their entire careers during the era of All Star Games.  I realized that when Bert Blyleven is inducted this summer, he’ll lower the bar to two appearances.  How low can this game of All Star Game limbo go?  One appearance?  Zero?

I threw this idea over the wall to my baseball think tank.  The specific question was which player had the best career, but with zero All Star Game appearances.

Barry from the 314 gave me some good food for thought.  He pointed out that new White Sox slugger Adam Dunn has just 1 All Star Game appearance on his resume.  Dunn probably is hurt by the fact that he has a reputation as a “homer or strikeout” type of player and is a poor defender.  While it’s true that he’s a Three True Outcomes sort of player (see Moneyball for some background), he’s good enough at the third outcome (walks) to boost his on base percentage to a respectable level – .381 for his career.  If Dunn ends up with 600+ homers (quite likely) and a .380+ on base pecentage, will the voters keep him out of Cooperstown?

The most interesting player with zero All Star Game appearances is Dunn Lite – Mark Reynolds of the Orioles.  Granted, Reynolds is coming off a dreadful year in which he mustered just a .198 batting average.  However, his career batting average (.242) is just 8 points less than Dunn’s (.242 and he has been increasing his walk rate – nabbing 83 free passes last season.  Then, of course, there is the power – 104 homers in the past three seasons, including 44 in 2009.  However, Reynolds has been criticized so heavily for his record breaking tendency to strike out that he might never be selected to an All Star Game, even if he gets his numbers in line with those of Dunn.  (We know how I feel about strikeouts).

Is it actually possible for someone to be elected to the Hall of Fame without ever being recognized as an All Star?  On the face, this seems unlikely, considering the increasingly bloated size of the rosters (I actually made the National League All Star team last year).  However, it may actually be possible.

It would probably be easiest for a starting pitcher.  Some managers are very protective of their pitchers, preferring that they don’t pitch in the All Star Game.  When this happens, the manager of the All Star team typically avoids picking the player rather than wasting a roster spot on someone who won’t help them win the game.  Take a guy who is a consistent 16-17 game winner with four 20 wins seasons mixed in, and I could see a possibility of him only being considered maybe five times.  Once or twice, he may have pitched the last game before the break and be unavailable.  The other times, an overprotective manager keeps him off the team.  You’d need the stars to align in order for this to happen, but it might.

Can it happen to a position player?  Sure.  I think the most likely scenario would be a situation where there was a great class of players at one position (catcher seems to be a good candidate).  Several Hall of Famers in the group, with one guy lagging a bit behind the othes in terms of quality (a guy elected in the final years of his eligibility).  Make him a guy who starts slow and heats in up in the second half, and he may get overlooked because of lackluster first half stats – especially if there’s one random guy each year who has a torrid start and nabs a spot.

Once again, Albert Pujols is front and center in the world of baseball.  As I write this, we’re closing in on the deadline Albert set for striking a deal.  It seems increasingly unlikely that Pujols will sign a deal prior to the deadline – setting the stage for his possible departure from St. Louis.  While there are a lot of teams that would love to have Pujols in their lineup, are there any willing and able to pony up $30 million per year?  The Yankees and Red Sox have a franchise 1B locked up, and those are usually the two teams with the most cash.

Of course, Pujols played third base earlier in his career.  The Yankees would play him at 3B, move A-Rod back to SS, and turn their aging SS into a utility player.  (I kid, John, I kid.)

Speaking of Yankees … CC Sabathia showed up at camp considerably lighter.  That’s a relative concept for a guy who lugs around 300 pounds on his 6’7″ frame, but he claims to be down 25 pounds from last year.  Based on the photos, I can believe it.  The one concern I always had with CC was his weight.  I always thought that it would eventually cause him to wear down at the end of the year.  It hasn’t happened yet – with Sabathia winning at least 17 games, pitching at least 230 innings, and posting an ERA of 3.37 or better in each of the past 4 seasons – and the weight loss might make him even more durable.  With 157 wins on his resume at age 30, Sabathia remains a solid candidate to be come the next 300 game winner – especially if he can maximize his wins the next few years, before the Yankee core declines too much.  There’s also the possibility that Sabathia could opt out of his deal, but I don’t see that happening.

Off the field …

On Tuesday, President Barack Obama recognized former Cardinal Stan “The Man” Musial with the presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor.  The greatest Cardinal of them all was a 24 time All-Star (note that there were two All Star games each year between 1959 and 1962, with one game benefitting the players’ pension fund).

The ownership of the New York Mets is in flux.  The owners are looking into the possibility of selling a 25% share of the team.  The owners are being sued by Irving Picard (no relation to Jean-Luc), the trustee for victims of Bernie Madoff.  Picard alleges that team ownership withdrew large amounts of false profits from their accounts with Madoff, and should have know that fraud was occurring.  This is the latest in a recent string of off-field issue affecting teams.  The McCourt divorce is still casting uncertainly on the future of the Dodgers.

Spring Training has begun, meaning that winter is officially over.  This means that any subsequent snowfalls will be in violation of federal law.

My picks for the World Series?  As much as I’d like to pick the Rockies, any team with Cole Hamels as their #4 starter  is going to make some noise – so I pick the Phillies from the NL.  In the AL, I’ll give the nod to the Red Sox, who added an extremely good player in Adrian Gonzalez.  My player to watch this season is Homer Bailey.  Although many have already given up on him as a bust, the kid won’t turn 25 until May.  I think he has enough experience under his belt to put together a breakout season in 2011.