The SoapBoxers

It’s late August, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have clinched another losing season – the 18th year in a row that they’ll wind up with more losses than wins.  At the time that I’m writing this, their record stands at 43-89, and they are strong contenders to be awarded the top pick in the 2011 draft (given to the team with the worst overall record).  The Pirates are a team with a rich history – Honus Wagner, Roberto Clemente, Willie Stargell – and it saddens me to see them turn into a mere shell of a baseball team.  The Pirates have gone the direction of putting the cheapest possible team on the field, trading away any player with even a modicum of talent.  This strategy has yielded the expected results.

If you dig down a bit, things start to get a bit more interesting.  The Pirates are 46 games below .500 for the season, but their home record is a relatively respectable 30-36.  That’s not great, but it’s not awful, either.  While most teams play a bit better at home, the home/road differential of the Pirates is quite astounding.  In contrast to their respectable home record, their road record is just 13-48 – a winning percentage that is just above 20%.  This year’s record is an exaggeration of the trend in recent years – the Pirates have largely tread water at home and gotten killed on the road.

The Pirates have an overall winning record against just 4 teams this year.  They are 4-3 against my Rockies, 4-2 against the Phillies, and 2-1 against the Indians.  The fourth team against which the Pirates have a winning record are the division rival Chicago Cubs.  The Pirates have gone 9-3 against the Cubs, given up just 31 runs in those 12 games – an average of just 2.58 runs per game.

I know quite a few Cubs fans, and this is a source of great embarrassment for them.  The Cubs are having a very disappointing year overall, but nobody should lose 75% of their games to the Pirates.  Not only have the Pirates had great success against the Cubs at home, they have also had their number within the friendly confines of Wrigley Field – holding a 4-2 record in Chicago’s home park.  The Pirates set their road-high of 10 runs scored against the Cubs, and also recorded one of their two road shutouts against Chicago. 

To put this in perspective, let’s take a closer look at the rest of the Pirates road wins.  They have two wins against the Rockies, two against the Brewers, and single wins against the Diamondbacks, Reds, Dodgers, Phillies, and Giants.  That’s it.  If you disregard the games against the Cubs, the Pirates are just 9-46 on the road – a winning percentage of just 16.4%.  Their wins against the Cubs account for fully 30% of their road wins.

When the Nationals decided to call up Stephen Strasburg, his first game was “coincidentally” against the Pirates.  Or, more likely, an astute baseball move to boost the confidence of Strasburg with an easy win.  After all, even the lowly Nationals were strong favorites to win at home against the Pirates.

I look forward to the day when the Pirates franchise once again becomes relevant, rather than a laughingstock.  I’m not a fan of the team, but their current state is bad for baseball.  In the meanwhile, I urge you to go to the ballpark the next time your team faces the Pirates.  There’s an 84% chance your team will win – unless your team is the Cubs.

When Matt Holliday was traded away from the Rockies, I thought that perhaps the “product of Coors Field” factor was gone for good.  When Holliday was with the Rockies, he always had dramatic home/road splits, but his road numbers lagging far behind his home numbers.  Many observers missed a few things:

1)  While Holliday’s road OPS was lower than his home OPS, it nonetheless rose steadily over the years
2)  Holliday’s home/road differential dwarfed that of any other player on the Rockies. Doesn’t a high tide lift all boats?

Personally, I came to have the belief that Holliday would always outperform the home/road differentials of his teammates, regardless of which park he called home.  While there is no doubt that Coors Field was a factor, I felt that an equally strong factor was Holliday’s approach at home.  For whatever reasons, he was simply more comfortable at home than he was on the road.  Holliday put up strong evidence in favor of this in 2009 and 2010 – posting an OPS 150 points higher at home in 2009 and 90 points higher in 2010. 

Gonzalez replaced Holliday in left field and seems to have inherited his penchant for huge home/road splits – in spite of the fact that he hits from the opposite side of the plate and has a lot more speed than Holliday.  Let’s take a closer look at Gonzalez this year:

Home: .375 BA. 19 homers, 1.144 OPS
Road: .282 BA, 6 HR, .732 OPS

That’s a home/road split of .412 – it was around a .500 point differential before CarGo’s strong weekend series in Pittsburgh.  League wide, players post an OPS of about .030 better at home.  So it’s Coors, right?  The team does have a healthy +.185 at home.  But Gonzalez’s numbers skew this dramatically, since his stats are included in the team stats.  Throw him out and the team has about a +.140 differential, meaning that CarGo’s differential is 3 times that of the rest of the team.

Let’s take a quick look at differentials of CarGo’s teammates. I’m setting the cutoff point at 250 plate appearances.

CA Miguel Olivio (Righty): +.473 (310 PAs)
OF Seth Smith (Lefty): +.376 (287 PAs)
OF Dexter Fowler (Switch): +.359 (303 PAs)
RF Brad Hawpe (Lefty): +.373 (289 PAs)

{Oddly, nobody in this gap of .300 points}

2B Clint Barmes (Righty): +.070 (375 PAs)
OF Ryan Spilborghs (Righty): +.007 (259 PAs)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (Righty): -.025 (319 PAs)
1B Todd Helton (Lefty): -0.101 (305 PAs)
3B Ian Stewart (Lefty): -.104 (325 PAs)

What do we see? Lots of players with strong positive splits and some with negative splits (which isn’t really what you would expect with Coors Field. Clearly, the small sample size comes into play. Let’s take a look at some of the players who have thrived at Coors.

Miguel Olivio: This is Olivio’s first year with the Rockies, so there’s not a large track record to draw from. What jumps out at me is the fact that Olivio has a .485 BABIP at home and a .233 BABIP on the road. This statistic – measuring the batting average on balls that are into play (excluding strikeouts and home runs) is generally about .300 league wide. Some hitters have a higher BABIP than others, but most are in the .270 – .330 range. Coors boosts BABIP a bit, due to the large outfield, but a .485 BABIP is absurd – as is the .233 road BABIP. Is this the reason for Gonzalez’s differential? Nope – his road BABIP is actually higher than his home BABIP. And as a side note, watching for Miggy’s numbers to slide late in the seasons – the .485 is not sustainable (nor is the .233, but there’s more downside to the home stats than there is upside to the road stats.)

Seth Smith – A nearly 100 point BABIP differential again explains away most of Smith’s home/road split. Smith does have a +.281 OPS for his career, albeit with a relatively small sample size (805 career plate appearances).

Dexter Fowler – Chalk up a big chunk of this differential to a 7 game stretch from July 1 through July 8 during which Dex hit .500 with a homer, 3 doubles, and 4 triples – good for a 1.622 OPS. These were Fowler’s first game at home following a demotion to AAA, and I suspect that he was trying to show that he belonged in the majors. Again, Fowler is a young player without a lot of time in the majors.

OK, the veteran Brad Hapwe. This proves that Coors is friendly to lefthanded power hitters, right? Well, except for the fact that over the course of his career, Hawpe’s home OPS is just .052 higher at home – 2010 is simply an outlier.

While we’re on the topic of career splits, here are the splits for other Rockies who have played at least a few seasons as a starters (the Rockies have a very young team).

Todd Helton: +.205
Clint Barmes: +.178
Troy Tulowitzki: +.103

At this point, it should be pretty clear that Coors Field doesn’t push an OPS 400 points higher.  For Gonzalez, I’m going to assume that either:

1)  2010 is a fluke and future years will have a smaller differential
2)  He will have Holliday-esque split in future years – hopefully with  a Holliday-esque rise in road OPS each year

Some interesting notes:

• Gonzalez rarely walks (19 for the year) but has nearly 3 times as many walks at home vs. road (14 vs. 5).  As a whole, the Rockies walk about the same amount at home vs. road.
• Carlos has a high home run rate against pitchers who are groundball pitchers than pitchers who are flyball pitchers or have an average FB/GB mix.  That’s a bit weird, since groundball pitches tend to keep the ball down.
• Gonzalez is doing better against left handed pitchers than against righties.  In general, lefty hitters struggle mightily against lefty pitchers.

The takeaway from this?  Gonzalez is a hell of a player at age 24.  He has a few years to play before he gets to his physical peak (age 27) and should get even better.  Hopefully he begins to hit better away from Coors – but even if he doesn’t, there’s a ton of value in a guy who can post a 1.144 OPS in half his games.  Those sort of numbers help you win a lot of games.

Saturday marked the passing of baseball’s trade deadline.  From now through the end of the season, players must pass through waivers before being traded.  The waivers process is to complex to fully explain in the midst of this article – suffice it to say that others team can claim the players during the process in order to mess up a trade. 

The Houston Astros went into full dismantle mode, crippling their offense and pitching by sending Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt away in trades.  Berkman went to the Yankees, in a classic case of the rich getting richer.

The Oswalt deal was a head scratcher for me.  I don’t blame the Phillies for targeting Oswalt – lots of teams were pursuing the Astros ace at the deadline.  The aspect that had me scratching my head was that they had just dealt away Cliff Lee at the time they acquired Roy Halladay.  Why jumping through all the hoops of trading Lee away and then acquiring Oswalt when they could have just retained Lee.  At the time that the Phillies were rumored to be acquiring Halladay, I was very intrigued at the thought of Halladay and Lee in the same rotation, and was a bit puzzled when Lee was shipped out.  I wonder if this game of musical pitchers is going to end up costing them a playoff spot?  How many more wins could the Phillies have had in the first half with Lee in the rotation?  Having said this, I do think that Oswalt is the better pitcher.

The Yankees made a couple smaller moves, picking up veterans Austin Kearns and Kerry Wood for the stretch run.  Both are players who were once rising stars whose stars are now fading.  Nonetheless, the mention of Wood’s name always begs the question: How much wood could Kerry Wood carry if Kerry Wood could carry wood?  And that other question – did Dusty Baker ruin the acreers of Wood and Mark Prior by overextending them in games?

The Rangers were a team that pushed all their chips into the middle of the table.  Texas acquired the aforementioned Cliff Lee earlier in July to bolster their rotation.  At the deadline, they firmed up their infield by picking up Jorge Cantu and Cristian Guzman.  The Rangers might not play in the AL East, but look for them to be a tough out in the playoffs.

On Friday night, my Rockies hammered the Chicago Cubs 17-2.  The margin was just 5-2 entering the bottom of the 8th inning.  The first two Rockies got hits.  The next two hitters made outs.  Then the floodgates opened.  The Rockies got eleven straight, then two walks, before finally making the third out.  Eighteen batters came to the plate and the Rockies scored twelve runs.  The eleven straight hits were an all-time Major League record – and bear in mind that Major League Baseball has been around since 1876.

You may ask yourself – what are the odds of this happening in a game?  Well, with Kosmo in the house, you don’t need to ponder the answer.  Well, if you have a team consisting entirely of .300 hitters (which is virtually impossible), the odds of turning two consecutive at bats into hits is just 9%, or .3^2.  The odds of eleven straight hits would be .3^11 – or one chance in 564,503.  If your team consist of all .260 hitters (much more likely), the odds are just one in 2,724,540.

This does, of course, assume that each at bat is an independent event, which isn’t the case.  Subsequent batters may learn from the experience of the first batters, and pitchers may lose confidence in their breaking pitches and throw more fastballs.  This would cause these odds to shift a bit more in the favor of the hitters.

Of course, these are just the odds at bats turning into hits.  An at bat in a trip to the plate that results in either an out or a hit (statisically, a defensive error counts as an our for the hitter, which sucks).  The thing that made the Rockies hit parade even more unlikely was that it was not interrupted by any walks – the walks came later (a trip to the plate that results in a walk is not charged to the batter as an at bat, but is merely included in the more broad classification of plate appearances).  I can’t even calculate the odds of this happening – because the pitcher can easily stop such a streak by intentionally walking a batter.

On Saturday night, Carlos Gonzalez hit for the cycle against the Cubs.  This means that he had a single, double, triple, and home run in the same game.  Gonzalez completed the cycle in dramatic fashion – bashing a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th.

The ball sailed high into the air before smashing into the window of a house situated deep in right field of the makeshift diamond.

Jeffrey Snyder grabbed his glove and prepared to make a hasty exit to avoid the wrath of the homeowner.

“Wait a minute,” came a shout from over his shoulder. Jeff stopped in his tracks and turned to face his classmate, Ryan Green.

“It’s OK,” explained Green. “The old lady that lives there is really cool. She just gives us the balls back without yelling at us.”

Snyder hesitated. Could this be true? Any time an adult had caught one of his friends breaking a window, the whole group had been yelled at and forced to pay to fix the window. He decided that Green wouldn’t lie to him. He turned back around and joined the group and they walked toward the house.

Ryan Green took a step forward and rang the bell. A moment later, a woman answered the door.

“I’m sorry, Miss Marshall. We broke your window again.”

Kathleen Marshall looked at the group of young boys. “Which of you boys hit the ball?” she asked.

Jeffrey Snyder hesitated for a moment, and then spoke. “It was me, ma’am. I’m very sorry.”

“You a righty or a lefty?”

“Uh, I’m righthanded, ma’am.”

“That’s a good piece of hitting, then,” she remarked. “You took the ball the opposite way. You can’t expect to succeed by pulling everything.”

“Yes, ma’am,” replied a dumbfounded Snyder.

“Go back to your game, boys. Don’t you worry none about this window – I can get it fixed easily enough.”

The relieved group muttered thanks to Kathleen and they raced back toward the diamond to continue their game.

Kathleen Marshall made a note to call her handyman to get the glass in the window replaced. She could expect to replace the glass at least a couple of times each year, as well as suffering several dents to her siding.

Marshall put the cost of the repair out of her mind for a moment as she watched the boys continue the game. It was a beautiful day in June, and these were the true boys of summer – the kids who played the game for the sheer enjoyment.

Kathleen thought back on her own son, Edward. Edward’s favorite toy as an infant had been a plush baseball, and he spent countless hours swinging away at a ball on a tee in his younger days. When he was finally old enough to play with real bats and balls, he spent summer days such as this playing baseball from sun up to sun down. Many times, Kathleen had to walk down to the diamond to drag him home for supper.

Kathleen also remembered the last year. Edward fighting the leukemia that ravaged his body. Every day, he listened to baseball games on the portable radio next to his bed. His love of the game gave him the strength to continue his fight.

The she remembered that long ago fall day. The baseball season had wrapped up, and there was no baseball to listen to on the radio. Edward managed to stumble across The Natural playing on one of the movie channels. He drifted off the sleep as Robert Redford smacked the mighty blast that froze the clock at a moment in time.

Frozen in time, too, was the smile on Edward’s face. It was the final time that he would drift off to sleep.

Kathleen looked back toward the boys playing baseball and took a moment to dab a tear from her eye. Some of her friends said that she allowed the kids to take advantage of her and that she should make them pay to fix her window when they broke it. Kathleen knew that she could never do that. She would never do anything that would chase away these boys – the boys who kept alive the memories of her Edward with their joyful baseball games.

Well, that’s a very simple question question.  Here’s your answer, according to rule 2.00 of the Major League Baseball rule book.

 An INFIELD FLY is a fair fly ball (not including a line drive nor an attempted bunt) which can be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort, when first and second, or first, second and third bases are occupied, before two are out. The pitcher, catcher and any outfielder who stations himself in the infield on the play shall be considered infielders for the purpose of this rule.

When it seems apparent that a batted ball will be an Infield Fly, the umpire shall immediately declare “Infield Fly” for the benefit of the runners.  If the ball is near the baselines, the umpire shall declare “Infield Fly, if Fair.”

The ball is alive and runners may advance at the risk of the ball being caught, or retouch and advance after the ball is touched, the same as on any fly ball. If the hit becomes a foul ball, it is treated the same as any foul.

If a declared Infield Fly is allowed to fall untouched to the ground, and bounces foul before passing first or third base, it is a foul ball. If a declared Infield Fly falls untouched to the ground outside the baseline, and bounces fair before passing first or third base, it is an Infield Fly.

Rule 2.00 (Infield Fly) Comment: On the infield fly rule the umpire is to rule whether the ball could ordinarily have been handled by an infielder—not by some arbitrary limitation such as the grass, or the base lines. The umpire must rule also that a ball is an infield fly, even if handled by an outfielder, if, in the umpire’s judgment, the ball could have been as easily handled by an infielder. The infield fly is in no sense to be considered an appeal play. The umpire’s judgment must govern, and the decision should be made immediately.

When an infield fly rule is called, runners may advance at their own risk. If on an infield fly rule, the infielder intentionally drops a fair ball, the ball remains in play despite the provisions of Rule 6.05(l).  The infield fly rule takes precedence.

Got it?  No?

The basic gist of the rule is that an infielder cannot allow a ball to drop in order to gain an advantage.  If an infield fly is called, the batter is automatically out, and the runners can advance at their own risk (but normally just return to their base).

So then , why does the rule exist?  Imagine if the bases were loaded with nobody out and there was a lazy pop fly to the third baseman.  If the ball is caught, the runners must return to their base.  If the ball is not caught, the runners must run to the next base.  Generally, the runners are going to stay near their base.  If the third baseman were to let the ball drop, he could step on third base for a force out, throw to second base for another, and have the second baseman throw to first base for the final out.  If the runners suspect that he’s going to do this, they could cheat toward the next base … but then they would have time to get back to their base if the fielder catches the ball.  It’s a real catch-22, and the infield fly rule attempts to level the playing field.

A few things to note about the rule:

• The fly ball does not have to be on the infield, but rather is a fly ball “which can be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort“.  This means that balls that are a few steps onto the outfield grass are included.  Even if the outfielder actually makes the play, the ball may be considered an infield fly if an infielder could have caught the ball with ordinary effort.  Foul pop flies that are caught are also governed by the infield fly rule.
• It’s also important to note the phrase “ordinary effort“.  If the infielder would have to race halfway across the diamond and dive to make a spectacular catch, this is not an infield fly.
• The ball is still live after an infield fly is declared.  If an infield fly is declared and the infielder accidentally kicks the ball into the outfield, the runners can run the bases at their own risk.

I’m a fan of the rule – without it, anarchy would exist.  Remember the play near the end of the All Star game where David Ortiz was thrown out at second base because he didn’t know if Marlon Byrd was going to make the catch?  Without the infield fly rule, infielders can create this sorts of situations on a regular basis (the Byrd/Ortiz play itself would not have been an infield fly, for a variety of reasons).  Truly, the infield fly rule is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Want to learn more about the rules of Major League Baseball?  Grab a copy of the official rule book.

Major League Baseball Official Rules

You often hear people hold the virtue of “consistency” aloft as the gold standard in sports.  It’s great to know that Joe Star is going to go out and put up the same stellar numbers in every game, right?

Not necessarily.  At some point, we get into diminishing marginal returns of sucky performances.  Let’s say Joe Bad goes out and throws four interceptions and loses two fumbles in a game.  Joe Worse throws seven interceptions and loses four fumbles.  Joe Worse hurt his team a lot more, right?  No, not really.  Joe Bad’s team was almost certain to lose the game with him turning the ball over seven times.  Throwing a couple more interceptions and fumbling two more times might look worse in the stat sheet, but it only affects the chance of winning a small bit.

The same principle comes into play in my favorite sport.  If you haven’t noticed, that sport happens to be baseball.  It makes little difference if a pitcher gives up seven runs or 27.  Unless the game is in Coors Field, it’s an almost certain loss for his team.  The 27 run outing is going to absolutely kill the guy’s ERA, but his team still lost just one game that day. 

Sometimes, you will hear announcers talk about pitchers with similar numbers, but point out (negatively) that one pitcher has a tendency to get his brain bashed every once in a while.  In actuality, this guy is probably the more valuable pitcher.  He might be getting absolutely rocked in 10-20% of his outings, but he’s outperforming the other guy in the other 80-90% of the games in order to have similar season numbers.  It’s important not to miss the forest for the trees.  The single game in which the pitcher took a beating accounts for just 1/162 of the season.  It should not overshadow the rest of his performances.

The takeaway on this?  Don’t dwell on the outliers; look at the entire body of work.

THE RESIN BAG

Giants (and ESPN) announcer Jon Miller made a fool of himself by accusing the Colorado Rockies of cheating via ball swapping trickery.  The Rockies have an MLB-approved humidor to keep baseballs at a constant humidity level.  Without the humidor, the balls quickly dry out at the high altitude, resulting in lighter balls that travel further.  The humidor is an attempt to keep a bit of a lid on offense.  (Why don’t all parks have humidors?  I don’t know.  I personally think they should.)  Anyway, Miller suggested that the recent hot streak by the Rockies might be a result of them sneaking non-humidored balls in to the umpire when they needed some offensive help late in games.

There are a few reasons why this isn’t particularly feasible.  First, the umpire rubs down all the balls with mud before the game (to reduce glare from the white surface).  How would the “cheater” balls get re-separated after the rubbing?  Second, what happens if the ball boy gives the ump several “cheater” balls and then the inning ends on the next pitch – the opposition would have the advantage of hitting the “cheater” balls.

But the most damning factor is that many pitchers have said that there is a discernible difference in the way the humidor balls feels as opposed to how a dry ball feels.  Not only is there a difference in the way it feels, but also the weight of the ball.  It might not be enough of a difference for the casual fan to notice, but pitchers are going to notice.

LeBron James decided to join Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosch on the Miami Heat.  I wasn’t shocked by the move, but was saddened a bit.  For the last few years, the only reason I have followed the NBA was to see if LeBron could bring a title to his hometown.  I’m not a fan of the style of play, and have been a marginal follower for the past decade. 

The NCAA basketball tournament is going to expand to 68 teams.  Instead of having four play-in games where the winner will play the #1 seed, the last eight at large teams (likely 11 or 12 seeds) will face off against each other for the right to stay alive in the tournament.  I hate this idea, because I think that 64 is the perfect number.  This change is likely to mess up a lot of bracket pools around the country.  Do you start counting games on Tuesday or on Thursday?

18 year old Mike Trout, an Angels farmhand, had a nice weekend.  In the Futures Game over the weekend, he had a single and double and reached twice on errors caused by the defense trying to hurry to beat his speed.  Later, he was promoted from low-A Cedar Rapids to high-A Rancho Cucamonga.  Trout has blazing speed and could have good power by the time he fully develops.  If he can stay in centerfield, he could be an extremely valuable player for years to come.

And speaking of reaching on an error … a batter is credited with an out when he reached on an error.  That’s why Trout was listed as 2 for 4 in the game.  In the same way, a fielder is credited with an assist even if the player he throws the ball to makes an error.  This is a bit weird, as players are being penalized (or rewarded) for things that should have happened.  In the case of the fielder, I don’t have a big problem with it.  But for the batter, I don’t like it, especially when the player forced an error with his speed.  Shouldn’t the batter get some credit, or at worst, simply not get charged with an at bat (as is the case with sacrifices)?

George Steinbrenner passed away at the age of 80 following a heart attack.  The much maligned owner had been in poor health for the past few years.

Hot Dog

Joey Chestnut defended his title at the Nathan’s Famous hot dog contest over the weekend – but he was overshadowed by the actions of former champion Takeru Kobayashi.  Kobayashi slipped past security and on to the stage following the contest.  He was arrested for trespassing, disorderly conduct, resisting arrest, and obstruction of governmental administration (yeah, I have no clue what this last one is).  He was released after a night in jail and faces a hearing today.

What’s at the heart of this issue?  A contract.  Partipants at the contest must sign contracts witg Major League Eating.  This contract prevents the eaters from participating in contests not sanctioned by MLE.  MLE says that this is to protect sponsors.  Pepto Bismol is a sponsor of the Nathan’s contest.  If the contestants were to compete in a Tums-sponsored even on the 3rd (or 5th) this would dilute the value of the sponsorship.  Kobayashi insists that he just wants the freedom to participate wherever he wants.

The solution to this seems pretty straightforward – allow for a sponsor’s exemption.  If all the sponsors for an event agree to allow a non-member to compete, then MLE would waive the requirement.  This isn’t a completely foreign concept – the PGA and LPGA golf tours have sponsor’s exemptions for tournaments.

I’ve always been a bit fan of Kobayashi’s, but I was very disappointed to see him stoop to this level.  I hope that he and MLE can reach an agreement at some point.

All Stars

The Major League Baseball All Star Game will be played next Tuesday night.  Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez was named to the team.  Jimenez was rocked for 7 runs against the Giants on Saturday, but escaped with a no-decision and currently stands with a record of 14-1.  Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki was named to his first All Star game, but will be unable to played due to a broken wrist.  Rockies outfielder Carlos “Car Bomb” Gonzalez is on the “Final Man” ballot.  Vote for him, please …

Matt Holliday (formerly of the Rockies and currently with the Cardinals) was named to the National League team, to the surprise of ESPN, who said “One surprising pick was St. Louis’ Matt Holliday. In the first year of a seven-year, $120 million deal, Holliday is batting .209 with runners in scoring position and has 39 RBIs — fourth-best on the team.”

It’s a shame that the dominant provider of sports entertainment would make such a gaffe.  First of all, RBI has long been consider a poor way to judge the value of a player.  The statistic is heavily influenced by the players hitting in front of the batter.  If they don’t get on base, he can’t drive them, in.  The batting average for runners in scoring position hasn’t been ridiculed as much as RBI, but many observer feel that that “clutch hitting” is much more rooted in luck than skill. 

What, then, would I suggest using?  Maybe something like Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  WAR measures a player’s offensive and defensive value, adjusting for their positon and for the value a replacement-level player could provide  (get more info on WAR here).  Where does Holliday rank amongst National League outfielders in WAR?  Yep – first.

The impact sent the bucket of Gatorade crashing to the floor, covering the concrete with a sticky yellow mess.

Colton Zephyr spun around and directed his venom at a human target.  He zeroed in on his third baseman, Gary Butler.

“You cost us the game,” he yelled.  “You stupid little butthead.”   Zephyr got a firm grasp on the bat and took a stride toward Butler.  As he prepared to take a swing at the defenseless player, three teammates tackled him.

Perennial All-Star Gordon Howard took the lead.  “You’re coming with us, Volcano,” he said as he gave Zephyr a shove back toward the clubhouse.  When they reached the clubhouse, Howard shoved Zephyr into a storage closet and locked the door.  “Stay in there and cool down, Volcano.  Someone will check on you after the game.  Maybe.”

With no further eruptions from Colton “Volcano” Zephyr to distract the team, the Bears clawed their way back into the game before Gary Butler and Gordon Howard hit back to back jacks in the ninth to send the fans home happy.

As he watched his team celebrate the hard-fought win, Skipper McGee headed back toward the clubhouse to take care of business.  He unlocked the closet and marched Zephyr back to his office.  The manager collapsed into a chair on the opposite side of the desk from the pitcher.

McGee thought about the situation for a moment.  A couple of years ago, Colton Zephyr had been a top shelf starting pitcher – a rising star in the league.  Some observers felt that the Bears had achieved a coup by retaining Zephyr at a cost of $90 million over 5 years.  It was a lot of money, but the New York Bombers seemed willing to pony up even more cash.

Zephyr had always been an excitable player, but halfway through his contract, he was becoming a serious distraction to the team.

McGee looked up at Zephyr.  The pitcher glared back at him.

“Colton, my boy, we need to have a talk.  You’re becoming a serious distraction to the team.”

Zephyr interrupted his manager.  “Yeah, yeah.  I’m sorry.  It won’t happen again.  I’ll get some counseling.  Yadda yadda yadda.”

“You’re right,” agreed McGee.  “It definitely won’t happen again with the Bears organization.  The boys upstairs made the decision several months ago.  The next time Volcano erupts, he’s gone.  The Bears are going to sever ties with you.”

Colton Zephyr laughed hysterically.  “Is that supposed to be a punishment?  I get to escape from one of the worst teams in the league!  It’s a guaranteed contract, so you still have to pay me.  Thanks for cutting me loose, Skip.  Just cut me my check and I’ll be on my way to the bank.”

“No so fast,” countered Skipper McGee.  “Actually, you’re going to retire from baseball and forfeit the money left on your contract.”

Zephyr laughed.  “Walk away from $45 million?  Why would I do that?  You’ve been out in the sun too long, Skip.  You’re getting a bit soft in the head.”

“We discussed this with our in house counsel …”

“And the quack lawyers told you that you had a leg to stand on?  Forget it, Skip.  The money is guaranteed and the union will crucify you if you try to steal it from me.”

“We had them review video footage from your previous incidents.  In their opinion, you have committed no fewer than six felonies and a dozen misdemeanors.  If we were to turn the videos over to the district attorney and have your teammates serve as corroborating witnesses, you would be facing some serious time behind bars.  Twenty years was the conservative estimate.  If you walk away from the game and leave the money on the table, we’ll keep the DA in the dark.”

“You can have the $45 million,” continued McGee, “or you can have your freedom.  The choice is yours.”

What is the deal with all the hype? I mean the guy has a .500 record so far in the bigs. What is all the fuss about? Another conspiracy by ESPN to overhype a young player before he has proven a thing?

Of course I am talking, just like everyone else is, about Stephen Strasburg.

I am already getting sick of Strasburg Mania. He is outpitched last night by Tim Hudson of the 1st place Braves, and all you hear about is Strasburg. Never mind the 5 hit gem that Hudson threw, how he surgically dismantled the pathetic Washington Nationals.

Strasburg for the All Star game! Wow, he has what 5 starts? And a 2-2 record? Sounds like all star stats to me. But the idiotic fans, most of which know nothing of baseball will vote, (it normally coincides with the baseball card market and value and popularity of players and has nothing to do with their actual performance on the field) so it will be interesting to see if he makes it in.

So before you all go out and spend all of your hard earned money on Strasburg rookie cards, let’s look at the facts

1. The Nationals SUCK. They have some nice young talent but they are still a horrible team with no real pitching, very average hitting and average defense. This could change drastically in 3-5 years IF some of their draft picks continue to pan out and the organization would spend some money and get some better players into the house
2. Strasburg is a pitcher! Why all the hype about a pitcher. I have a few words for all of you. Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Dontrelle Willis, and yes even Carlos Zambrano. All of these guys viewed as super studs and where are they now? All it takes is one arm injury and that is it, it is over. I would lay my money on a hitter any day over a pitcher.
3. He is 2-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Strasburg can put up great numbers all year but it gets back to point #1. If the club can’t score and can’t play defense, he can’t win games no matter how good he might pitch.
4. They need to be careful with him. Gone are the days when guys pitched complete games every night out. He will be on strict pitch counts every night and they will not overwork him. The Nationals cannot afford to. Can you imagine the gloss we would all be hearing if he got injured? Man it would make the Tiger Woods saga look like a back page story …

Of course I could be wrong, he could break Cy Young’s record of 511 wins … but I highly doubt it.

Go Nats!

The Florida Marlins seem to be in the news a lot this year.  Earlier in the year, All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez was benched after showing lack of hustle on a play.  Ramirez accidentally kicked a ball while fielded it, then allowed two runs to score as he ambled after the ball.  Ramirez then lashed out at manager Fredi Gonzalez, as if Ramirez was the victim.  After Roy Halladay’s pefect game, the Marlins announced that they would be selling unused tickets to the game (and there were many of them, as is the case with all Marlins home game) at face value – effectively killing the value of the tickets that had been purchased by die-hard fans who actually attended the game.

On Wednesday, the Fish fired manager Fredi Gonzalez in spite of the fact that the Marlins were actually still in contention – in spite of the ongoing efforts of ownership to trade good players whenever they get to the point of earning a large salary.  It’s not the first time that the Marlins have axed a manager who was producing solid on-field results.  In 2006, the Marlins had a payroll of just $14 million – lower than the salaries of several players, and 1/5 the payroll of most team.  Nonethleless, first time manager Joe Girardi led the team to a 78-84 record and kept them in contention for a playoff spot late into the season.  This was substantially better than anyone would have expected prior to the season, and Girardi was named National League Manager of the year.  By the time the award arrived on his doorstep, he had been fired.  Things worked out OK for Girardi, though.  He’s now the manager of the Yankees.

What got me riled up the most, however, was the news that the Marlins were bribing their fans to cast All-Star votes for the Marlins.  If you case 200 all-Marlin ballots, you get two free tickets to a Marlins game.  If you cast the most ballots, you get access to a suite at a Marlins game.  The Marlins say that other teams also make a push to have fans vote for their player, but Florida is much more aggressive than other teams.  I don’t even like the fact that people can easily vote 25 times online because of how it dilutes fan voting.  Having a team actively encourage ballot box stuffing makes me sick.  I wish Major League Baseball would step up and protect the integrity of the game.  If teams engage is this sort of activity, ban their players from the All-Star game for a year.  Maybe that would put sportsmanship back into the equation.

Maybe this would be a good time to start discussion contraction again?

THE RESIN BAG

Two of the most dominant pitchers in baseball toed the rubber on Wednesday night.  Stephen Strasburg face another cupcake team when he took the mound  against the Royals (having faced the woeful Pirates and Indians and the mediocre White Sox in his first three games).  Strasburg struck out nine and walked none, but did allow nine hits (all singles) in six innings of work, allowing just one run.  However, Brian Bannister of the Royals combined with the bullpen for a shutout, giving the Roayls a 1-0 win.

Ubaldo Jimenez was in search of his 14th win when he faced the Red Sox.  Jimenez was rocking and rolling early in the game, but ran into trouble in the sixth inning.  A flare down the right field line by Marco Scutaro put the Sox ahead 6-5 and sent Jimenez to the showers (actually, to the bench, where he watched the rest of the game).  It was by far the worst game of the year, statistically.  In spite of that, my friend Lazy Man at Lazy Man and Money came away impressed with Jimenez.  The Rockies took Jimenez off the hook by rallying against Papelbon in the ninth.  Homers by Ian “Stewie” Stewart and Jason “Jason” Giambi sent Colorado fans home happy with an 8-6 win.  The Rockies go for the sweep tonight when they send Jason Hammel to the mound to face off against Daisuke Matsuzaka.

I’m not much of a soccer fan, but I was following the ESPN Gamecast of the USA game against Algeria yesterday.  I had discussed various scenarios with occasional contributor Fulton Christopher, and when England went up 1-0 against Slovenia, we knew that the US was going to need a win to advance.  A surge of pride went through me when the news of Landon Donovan’s late goal splashed across the screen.

Across the pond at Wimbledon, news of Roger Federer’s near defeat at the hands of Allejando Falla in the first round was the buzz on the first day of the tournament  .  Down two sets, Federer rallied to beat the Colombian in five sets.  The tournament’s top seed struggled again in the second round, with Serbian Ilija Bozoljac taking R-Feds to four sets. 

On Wednesday, the big news was the match between American John Isner and Nicolas Mahut of France.  The match actually began on Tuesday.  It was suspended because of darkness and was resumed on Wednesday.  They played the entire day on Wednesday before the match was once again suspended because of darkness.  At the end of the day, they were tied 59-59 in the fifth set.  For those who don’t follow tennis, you typically play to 6.  The match is demolishing many records, and the length is unfathomable to everyone.  Matches simply don’t last this long, ever.

It will be interesting to see how the winner fares in the next round.  Conventional wisdom would be that they’ll be easy prey for an opponent – but only time will tell.  Both players are also playing doubles, and will play their first round doubles matches shortly after their singles match is completely – assuming that it doesn’t continue until the end of time.