The SoapBoxers

As many of you know, Major League Baseball’s draft is coming up next month.  I’m sure that many of you will set your DVRs to record the event.  I certainly will.  (Yes, I’m serious).

The baseball draft doesn’t receive the same attention given to the NFL’s draft (which seems to nearly overshadow the Super Bowl) or even the NBA’s. 

There are several reasons for the lack of popularity for the event.  Historically, about half the players drafted have been high schoolers, although the balance has shifted in favor of college players in recent years.  Even the very best high school players will take 3-4 years to develop into major league players, and 6+ years is a more common timeline.  Even the college players typically spend a few years in the minor leagues.  Thus, baseball players don’t jump straight from the draft to the television set like athletes in others sports.

Baseball’s 50 round draft is much longer than the NBA’s (2 rounds) or NFL’s (7 rounds).  Considering that the active roster for a baseball team is just 25 players, this necessitates using the minor leagues to develop players.  Without the minor leagues, the players simply wouldn’t get ample opportunities against live competition.  The minors also serve to bring baseball to small cities across America, allowing nearly anyone to hop in a car, drive an hour or two, and catch a game at any point during the summer.

The eligibility rules for baseball’s draft can make your head spin.  First of all, only residents of the United States, Canada, and U.S. territories – and well as students at institutions within those counties – are subject to the draft.  Players in other countries can sign with a team at age 16.  Thus players from Puerto Rico (a U.S. territory) are subject to the draft, but players from the Dominican Republic are not.  It is desirable to not be subject to the draft, as it allows you to negotiate with multiple teams, instead of just with the team that has exclusive rights to you.

As mentioned earlier, high school players are eligible.  Quite a few of the drafted high school players do not sign and opt to attend college on scholarship.  Sometimes teams will take a shot on “unsignable” players later in the draft, and try to convince them to sign with the team.  This is a low-risk/high-reward strategy.  An example of this is Rockies outfielder Dexter Fowler.  Fowler was a multi-sport star in high school and was committed to attending college at the University of Miami.  The Rockies took a flier on him in the 14^th round.  After freeing up some cash by trading Larry Walker, they were able to sign him for $925,000 – an amount that is more in line with a high second round pick than a 14^th rounder.

If a player decides to attend a four year college, they have to wait until their junior year.  An exception to this is that sophomores who turn 21 before the draft are also eligible.  The juniors and draft-eligible sophomores typically sign for more money than college seniors because they have more leverage.  If they don’t sign, they can always return to college and re-enter the draft.

If a player decides to attend junior college, they are eligible to be drafted after their first year.  This is why you will sometimes see very good players in the JUCO ranks instead of at an NCAA school.  In fact, Alex Fernandez transferred from the University of Miami after his freshman season in order to attend Miami-Dade Community College.  As a junior college player, he was eligible for the 1990 draft.  Had he stayed at Miami, he would not have been eligible until 1991.  Fernandez was the #4 overall pick in the 1990 draft.

Who will be the top pick in this year’s draft?  Most are saying that the Nationals will go after teen phenom Bryce Harper.  Harper passed his GED in order to skip his final two years of high school (yes, you read that correctly) and is currently attending junior college in order to gain eligibility for this year’s draft.  Although most scouts are rubbed the wrong way Harper’s arrogance and sense of entitlement, most admit that he is a tremendously skilled player.  While in high school, Harper racked up the miles criss-crossing the country and playing in a variety of elite tournaments.  He got off to a slow start this season, but has heated up in a hurry and it putting up video game type numbers.  Even better, Harper is a catcher – a position where there is traditionally a scarcity of great offensive players.

Should the Nationals and other teams take Harpers demeanor into account before decided to throw millions of dollars at him?  Certainly.  However, the landscape of professional sports is hardly barren of athletes with big egos.  As for Harper’s young age, it’s worth noting that he’ll turn 18 on October 16 – just a month later than some of the other 2010 draftees.

My advice to the Nationals?  Pick Harper – he’s the best available talent.  Then find him a Crash Davis type of player to make sure his head stays on straight.  The Nationals front office has been making some decent moves lately, and the team is actually doing fairly well so far this year.  Add Stephen Strasburg to the mix in a few weeks and Harper a few years down the road, and I think they’ll have a solid core to build upon.

For information about other players in this year’s draft, I recommend the blog MLB Bonus Baby.

Various media outlets are reporting that the St. Louis Cardinals have reached a deal with future Hall of Fame first baseman Albert Pujols.  The ten year deal will run from 2012-2021.  The most interesting aspect of the deal is that there is no cash involved.

GM John Mozeliak sat down with reporter Scoop Chevelle to discuss the deal.

“Well, Albert has always been a big part of the St. Louis community and has expressed great interest in furthering his investments in the St. Louis metropolitan area.”

When pressed for details, Mozeliak shared more information:

“Well, first of all, we’re handing him the keys to the Cardinals, of course.  If you run the numbers, it’s actually much cheaper to give him the team and a few bonus items than it would be to actually pay him cash.”

And what bonus items were included in the deal?

“The first thing Albert asked for was the famous Arch.  We expected that demand, and quickly handed over the deed.  Albert will also receive the St. Louis Zoo and all of the animal residents.”

Was there anything that Pujols asked for and didn’t receive?

“We didn’t buckle to every demand, of course.  He asked for the Mississippi River.  Honestly, that was a bridge too far, and we couldn’t do that.  He settled for the Missouri River, and everyone seemed to be happy with the compromise.”

Scoop next went to the streets to get the reaction from the public.

“Hey, the team needed to sign Pujols at any cost, you know?” commented Dave A.  “You gotta pay for quality, man.  You need to pay for quality.”

Others were less accepting of the deal.

“I really don’t understand how he could have received Kaufman stadium as part of the deal,” complained Kansas City resident George B.

George’s neighbor Frank W. echoed those sentiments.  “Yeah, isn’t Kaufman Stadium owned by another team?  How can the Cardinals just give it away?”

Commissioner Bud Selig attempted to smooth ruffled feathers.  Selig indicated that the deal was perfectly valid, and that his powers to act “in the best interests of baseball” created eminent domain to take Kaufman Stadium from the Royals and give it to Pujols.

Other residents of the state balked at the idea of the Gateway Arch passing into private hands.  Jon Jarvis, Director of the National Park Service, told us that he had left a voicemail for Pujols and was anxiously awaiting a return call.  “The Gateway Arch is a National Monument and has historically been under the custodianship of the National Park Service.  We at the NPS are very interested in knowing Mr. Pujols’ intentions.”

We attempted to reach Pujols for comment, but Colby Rasmus and Matt Holliday kept us away from him.  After that misadventure, we reached out to an unidentified employee of Pujols Manor.  The employee indicated that Albert had plans to turn the Arch into his private residence, allowing him to have great views of Busch Stadium and the riverfront.

Ryan Howard of the Phillies, who recently signed a deal for only $25 million per year, was said to be despondent at getting one-upped by Pujols yet again.

Yankee General Manager Brian Cashman had a cynical take on the deal.  “This is an obvious attempt to circumvent the luxury tax.  I mean, how do you value these assets?  Take the zoo, for example.  What’s an elephant worth?  Or a tiger?  The Cardinals should be ashamed of themselves.” 

This breaking news was brought to you by the fine folks at FNN, the Fake News Network.

If I’ve heard it once, I’ve heard it a hundred times. Drafts ensure an equal distribution of talent.

But is it really true?

The concept behind drafts in the major sports is that the teams with the worst records receive the top picks in the annual draft of amateur players. In baseball and football, this is as simple as assigning the top pick to the team with the worst record. Basketball employs a lottery system. The worst teams receive more ping pong balls in the lottery, but they are not guaranteed the top pick.

Even if you’re not a sports fan, you probably spotted the moral hazard. If you’re having a bad season, it can be a good move to intentionally lose games late in the season in order to get a good pick in the draft.

Let’s take a deeper look at the core assertion that drafts ensure an equal distribution of talent. This isn’t true, of course. The best that the draft process can hope to do is produce parity in terms of win-loss records. Some organizations are simply much better at maximizing talent than others. Throw a bad coach and GM into the mix, and the team will easily under-perform the level you’d expect based on the talent.

There’s another question to be addressed – even if drafts did ensure an equal distribution of talent, should this be a goal of a league? If your team allows stars to leave via free agency, makes bad trades, and makes inefficient use of the players, should the league bail you out by handing you high draft picks each year? This really amounts to a subsidy of the bad teams at the expense of the good ones.

What’s my solution? Throw all the team names in a hat and randomly draw to determine the draft order.

OK, maybe that’s a bit extreme, and could lead to massive apathy for some teams that struggle to improve. However, at the very least, baseball and football should adopt a lottery similar to the NBAs.

The Resin Bag

Like Johnny Goodman, I was a bit surprised to see Tim Tebow taken with the #25 pick in the draft. I’m not as down on Tebow as Johnny. I think he’s a project that could pay dividends down the road. However, you don’t take projects in the first round, particularly with better QBs still available.

I was hoping the Rams would break from conventional thought and nab Texas QB Colt McCoy with the top pick in the 3rd round (McCoy was taken by the Browns later in the 3rd round). It’s true that the Rams have a lot of holes, and that spending two high picks on quarterbacks is a luxury. However, picking a franchise quarterback can be a real crapshoot.  (For the latest proof of this, look in JaMarcus Russell’s direction).  If Sam Bradford fails, the Rams may be back to the drawing board in a few years, using another #1 pick on a quarterback. McCoy would have given the Rams a second roll of he dice for a lower price. Not only that, but he could have pushed Bradford for the job, bringing out the best in both players.  It’s hard for a sense of entitlement to set in when there is another quality young QB gunning for your job.  After years of battling in the Big 12 South, it would have been interesting to see them battling in training camp.

Iowa State basketball coach Greg McDermott left for a new job as the coach at Creighton. McDermott had a very successful run as the coach of UNI, but his Iowa State teams never won more than 15 games, and the patience of the fans was growing a bit thin.

After McDermott left, the ABC station in Ames began to report the news that favorite son Fred Hoiberg was being considered for the vacant Iowa State job. Hoiberg went to Ames High School before becoming one of the most popular players in the history of the program. His nickname was “The Mayor.” My business law professor was he actual mayor of Ames at the time, and he even referred to Hoiberg as “The Mayor”.  Hoiberg doesn’t have any hands-on coaching experience, but he did spend the last few years in the front office of the NBA’s Minnesota Timberwolves.

Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard signed a 5 year contract extension that pays him $25 million per year.  Seen licking him chops after the announcement was Cardinals first baseball Albert Pujols, who will become a free agent after the 2011 season.  Pujols is a better offensive and defensive player than Howard and could command upwards of $30 million per year.

Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez will finish the month of April with a record of 5-0 and  0.79 ERA.  If those numbers aren’t enough to warrant the National League Pitcher of the Month honors, perhaps his no-hitter will push him over the edge.

NFL Draft

The 2010 draft will kick off Thursday night, with a new three day format.  In the past, the draft took place on Saturday and Sunday.  This year’s draft will be split across three days.  First round picks will be Thursday night, the next two rounds will be Friday night, and the final four rounds will occur on Saturday.  The NFL is making this move to try to score higher TV ratings for the draft.  I see this as a losing proposition for fans, though.  In the past, the Saturday start to the draft lent itself very nicely to draft parties.  A Thursday night draft doesn’t work quite as well for those who have work the next day.

After releasing longtime quarterback Marc Bulger, the St. Louis Rams are expected to select a quarterback with the top overall pick.  The general consensus is that this year’s crop of quarterbacks doesn’t have the slam-dunk guy who is a near-guaranteed star.  Barring a trade, the Rams are expected to pick Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford, whose injury derailed the Sooners’ 2009 season.

Speaking of the Rams, their ownership is still in flux.  When majority owner Georgia Frontiere passed away in 2008, her 60% stake of the team was inherited by her children, Chip Rosenbloom and Lucia Rodriguez.  Now, they have chosen to sell their stake in the team.  They accepted a bid from Illinois businessman Shahid Khan (check out his Wikipedia bio for a great immigrant-makes-good story).  However, minority owner (40%) Walter  Kroenke has an option to match any offer.  At the end of his window to match the offer, Kroenke announced that he would exercise his option.

There’s a wrinkle in the plan, though.  The NFL bans owners from owning franchises (in other sports) in other NFL cities.  Kroenke owns the NBA’s Denver Nuggets and the NHL’s Denver Avalanche – and would thus be barred from buying the Rams, unless this rule is waived, or unless he sells the Colorado teams (his 40% stake in the Rams was grandfathered during a 2005 expansion of this cross-ownership rule).  I’m really not a huge fan of the rule, as it doesn’t make much sense to me.  Some people think the Kroenke has a legitimate interest in becoming sole owner of the Rams, whereas others see this as posturing in an effort to get Khan to pay more for Kroenke’s 40%.  Only time will tell.

Another player sure to be drafted high in the NFL draft is Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.  Suh is expected to be grabbed in the first three picks.  Suh already has a massive fan base in Husker Nation – but he may have gained a few more on Saturday.  During Nebraska’s spring game, Suh announced his intention to donate $2.6 million to the university.  $2 million will go toward the strength and conditioning program within the athletic department.  $600,000 will go toward endowing a scholarship in the college of engineering – from which he earned his degree.  Suh’s family is yet another story of immigrants living the American dream.  His Jamaican-born mother and Cameroon-born father  met in Oregon in 1982.  There will certainly be some 2010 draftees who get into trouble in the future – but I sincerely doubt that Ndamukong Suh will be one of them.  He’s a great player and an all-around class act.  I say this despite the fact that I hate the University of Nebraska.  It’s hard to root against the kid.

Be Like Ike

On the baseball beat, Ike Davis was called up by the Mets on Monday.  Not coincidentally, players called up on Sunday would have received credit for an entire season of service time; those called up on Monday only get credit for actual time served (I explained how this works when I answered the question of why Stephen Strasburg got sent to the minors).  The effect of delaying Davis’ call-up until now is that he will not become a free agent until after the 2016 season.  Down the coast in Atlanta, 20 year old Jason Heyward broke camp with the Braves and is off to a great start.  However, barring a demotion at some point, this means that Heyward will become a free agent following the 2015 season.  A few weeks in April make a lot of difference down the line.

If you’re a longtime reader of The Soap Boxers, you’re familiar with Davis’ name.  He was one of the players selected with draft picks the Mets received as compensation for losing Tom Glavine to free agency.  Chalk up that exchange as a win for the Mets.

Where There’s a Will

Mike and Mike in the morning were talking with George Will this morning and mentioned that his book Men At Work will be re-released next month.  It’s 20 years old, but one of my favorite baseball books.  Will picks the minds of 80’s baseball icons such as Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. to see what makes them tick.  (Yes, this is the same George Will who writes about politics).

When I was looking up the book in Amazon so that I could link to it, one of the books that popped up in “Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought …” was Jim Bouton’s Ball Four.  Ball Four takes an even more interesting look way behind the scenes of baseball.  It’s a great read, but there’s adult language and situations, so it’s not the sort of book to use as a bedtime story for your kids.  (There’s no logical reason to talk about Ball Four today, othe than the Amazon connection.  It’s just a good book 🙂

On Sunday, Mitch Albom launched a surprise attack on fantasy baseball in Parade Magazine. 

Albom starts off by pointing out that on any given day, fifteen million people check fantasy baseball stats – more fans than are actually in the stands to watch a game that day.  Albom sees this as a bad thing.  The fire marshals probably see this as a good thing.  In order for fifteen million people to attend a game on a particular day, it would entail each of the fifteen games to have a million people in the stands.  That would be fine – except that the maximum capacity of most stadiums is around fifty thousand. 

Albom also seems to be splitting the followers of baseball into “fantasy folks” and regular fans.  Albom must know a different group of fantasy players than I do.  In my leagues, all of the participants are also big fans of a Major League team.  While I’d love to see my Yura Peeins or Bats in the Belfry teams win titles in their respective leagues, I’d much prefer to see the Colorado Rockies win the division.

Why, then, do I even bother with fantasy baseball?

First of all, to kill the dead time in the schedule.  I absolutely love baseball.  There are, sadly, a handful off days during the season on which the Rockies don’t play.  Being able to actively follow other teams on these days (as well as during the hours the Rockies aren’t playing on other days) staves off the depression that would otherwise set in from lack of Rockies.  While I have a defined order of preference for Major League teams, it’s fun to have some somewhat random players to root for.  (By the way, if you’re looking for an entertaining tale of fantasy baseball, check out Sam Walker’s Fantasyland.)

There is also the actual nature of fantasy baseball.  I consider it to be much more challenging than other fantasy sports.  In football, there is a reasonable correlation between yards and touchdowns.  In basketball, the best centers are going post strong numbers in points, rebounds, and blocks. 

This isn’t the case in baseball, though.  It’s extremely rare to see a player put up strong numbers in all categories.  Prince Fielder of the Brewers is a great offensive player, but he kills you in steals.  Conversely, Ichiro Suzuki of the Mariners will give you steals, but few homers.  There is also the issue of positional flexibility.  In the other sports, the position is set.  A wide receiver does not suddenly become a quarterback.  However, in baseball, it is not uncommon to see players log time at a few different positions.  It can be advantageous to have a player who is eligible at multiple positions (so that he can fill in for injured players) even if his offensive ceiling is not as high as others.

Albom says that “if you program a computer correctly, it can play an entire fantasy season without you.”  While this is true (in fact, no programming is necessary), it’s very unlikely that you can WIN this way.  Fantasy baseball is very much an art – determining which of the inevitable sacrifices to make during the season.

Albom’s main assumption seems to be that people use fantasy baseball as a replacement for the real thing.  However, in my experience, this is not the case.  Instead, people use fantasy baseball to supplement the main activity of following their favorite team.

Sorry, Mitch, you struck out on this one.

The rosin bag

Rockies Nation was exuberant on Saturday evening.  26 year old staff ace Ubaldo Jimenez handcuffed the Atlanta Braves en route the first no-hitter in Rockies history.  Baldo’s control was lacking in the early innings.  He walked six batters in the first five innings.  At that point, pitching coach Bob Apodaca noticed that Jimenez was pitching better from the stretch (a shorter motion typically used only when there are runners on base) than he was from the windup.  Jimenez pitched the rest of the game from the stretch and didn’t walk another hitter.  Jimenez was still throwing in the high 90s at the end of the game (after touching 100 several times earlier in the game).  Ubaldo has flown under the radar of casual fans a bit, but many experts consider him to be among the elite pitchers in the game,

After I finished listening to the Jimenez’s no-hitter, I switched over to the Cardinals-Mets game.  The game had started at 3 PM Central time.  By the time I tuned in (thanks to a heads-up from The Angry Squirrel) the game was in the 14^th inning, tied at 0-0.  Eventually, Cardinals manager Tony La Russa decided against draining his pitching staff any further (he had already used eight pitchers).  Shortstop Felipe Lopez  pitched a scoreless 18^th inning.  Outfielder Joe Mather then took the mound in the 19^th.  He surrendered run to the Mets, but Cardinals matched it in the bottom of the frame.  Mather finally took the loss after giving up a run in the 20^th.

 I doubt that there was a more popular player in the clubhouse after the game, however.  The Cardinals had Sunday’s game to think about (they won that game) and someone needed to take one for the team.  As it turned out, La Russa didn’t need to worry about the bullpen for Sunday’s game – Adam Wainwright turned in a complete game.

The Baltimore Orioles, at 2-11, are 7 ½ games behind the front running Yankees in the American League East.  It may be time for Orioles fans to start looking at promising college sophomores and high school juniors, in anticipation of the O’s landing the top pick in next year’s draft.

As the taxi sped away, Wyatt Jonson stared in awe of the stadium looming in front of him.  He felt that he was on hallowed ground in the shadow of the great shrine to the game.  Wyatt slowly came out of his reverie and walked toward the player entrance.

“Who’re you?” snapped the burly man guarding the player entrance.

“Wyatt Jonson, the new third baseman.”

“I ain’t got no Jonson on my sheet.  I gotta make a call.”  The guard took the toothpick out of his mouth, grabbed the phone, and punched in a number.  After a moment of grumbled conversation, he turned back to Wyatt.

“Need to see your license.”

Wyatt pulled out his South Dakota driver’s license and handed it to the guard.

The guard glanced at the photo on the ID, then back at Wyatt to verify that the photo matched.

“OK, kid, you’re good to go.  Welcome to the show.”

A few minutes later, Wyatt had found his way to the manager’s office.  Mac McGee was tied up on a phone call, facing away from the door.  Wyatt stood silently by the door, waiting for the call to end.  When Mac hung up the phone, Wyatt knocked on the door.

“What the ^*&^*&?” exclaimed the startled manager, spilling his coffee on the cluttered desk.

“I’m so sorry.  I didn’t mean to surprise you like that.  I’m Wyatt Jonson.”

Mac’s face changed into a smile.  “You realize that you didn’t need to report until tomorrow, right?  Geez, kid, how did you manage to get here so quickly?”

“My dad’s best friend happens to live in Springfield and has a private plane.  I was able to circumvent the whole airport hassle.  I wanted to get here as soon as possible.”

Mac laughed.  “I appreciate your enthusiasm, kid.  Have the pilot send a bill to the team.”  The manager glanced at his watch.  “We weren’t planning to have you available until tomorrow, but you’re probably the best option we have right now.  We’re getting pretty close to game time.  Go take a few hacks in the batting cage.”

Wyatt was quickly hustled down to the batting cage where he took some nervous swings.  His big league debut was just minutes away, and giant butterflies were flying around in his stomach.  Fifteen minutes later, he was escorted back to the dugout.

“There’s your locker, kid,” said the equipment manager, nodding at a stall.  Wyatt rushed to changed into his uniform.

“Something wrong, kid?” asked the equipment manager, noticing the frown on Wyatt’s face.

“My name’s wrong.  It’s J-O-N-S-O-N.”  The equipment manager glanced at the jersey, which had the name JOHNSON emblazoned on the back.

“Oh, man.  I’m sorry.  We don’t have time to get it fixed right now, but we’ll have it done for tomorrow’s game.”

Wyatt nodded.  He reminded himself that this was a minor detail, and that the important thing was that he would be on the field tonight.

Moments later, Wyatt was on the field as the Star Spangled Banner was played.  After the final note faded away, he drifted toward his shortstop position.

“Play ball,” came the shout from the umpire.

The batter dug in and turned to face the mound.  Reigning Cy Young winner Twister Larson unleashed a 95 mph fastball.  The batter swung and hit a ground ball between second and third base.  Wyatt hurried toward the ball, gloved it, set himself, and made a strong and accurate throw to first base.  So far, so good, he thought.

Another hitter stepped into the batter’s box, and Larson rocked and fired again.  A few pitches later, the batter was making the long, slow walk back to the dugout.  The final batter of the inning lifted a harmless fly ball to right field.

Wyatt returned to the dugout and started to take a seat on the bench.

“You’re leading off, rook,” came the voice of Mac McGee.  Wyatt turned and went to the bat rack.  He realized that he hadn’t brought any bats with him.

“What are ya looking for? “ asked Rake Sauders.  The three time batting champ smiled broadly.  “I have a rather extensive collection of wood.”

“Uh, 34 inches and 32 ounces.”

“Ah, here we go,” replied Rake, pulling a Louisville Slugger from the rack.  “Consider it a housewarming gift.”

Wyatt nodded his thanks and headed toward the plate.

“Aren’t you up past your bedtime, kid?”

Wyatt ignored the chatter from the catcher and settled into the box.  He realized that the opposing pitcher was Lefty Vays.  Vays threw in the high 90s with mediocre control and a nasty disposition.  This was not going to be a fun at bat.

The ball arrived at the plate much too quickly, and the ump quickly registered a strike.  Wyatt had faced some guys in the minors who threw in the high 90s.  That pitch had to be at least 102.

Wyatt prepared himself for the fastball and took a mighty swing at the next pitch.  It was a changeup moving at about 85 mph and Wyatt was hopelessly in front of it.  He managed to make contact on the next pitch, fouling it weakly into the stands behind the plate.

Wyatt prepared for the 1-2 pitch.  The wild pitch got away from Vays and struck Wyatt in the ribs.  The umpire awarded Wyatt first base and busied himself sweeping home plate to give Wyatt some time to recover.

When Wyatt got to first base, he immediately got the sign to steal.  He took off on Vays’ first motion and slid into second well ahead of the throw from the catcher.  He smiled as he stood at second base and shook off the dust.  His ribs seemed to hurt a bit less.

Rake Saunders lived up to his nickname and hammered the next pitch off the wall in center field.  Wyatt raced around third base and streaked toward home plate.  He slid into home, but the throw went into second to keep Saunders from advancing.

Wyatt was greeted warmly by his teammates when he returned to the dugout.

Mac McGee smiled up at him.  “Hey kid, why don’t you take a load off and sit down for a minute.”

Wyatt was beaming as he took a seat on the bench – the first chance he’d had to sit down since he had jumped out of the taxi.

An interesting thing about baseball is that every field is different.  The dimensions are different, the amount of foul territory is different, and the altitude is different (see Coors Field for a good example of this).

For this reason, baseball statistics must be taken in their proper context.  The typical way to do this is to calculate a “park factor” for a park and adjust a player’s statistics according.  ESPN has a page devoted to this.  However, their park factors are, for lack of a better word, wrong.  Let’s investigate.

The formula ESPN uses (using runs as an example) is:

((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))

 (RS = Runs Scored.  RA = Runs Allowed.  HomeG = Home Games.)

Here’s a very simple example:

Rockies 6, Padres 3 @ Coors Field

Rockies  4, Padres 2 @ Petco Park
 

The park factors for runs would be:

Coors: 

((6+3)/1)/((4+2)/1))

9/6 = 1.500

Petco

((4+2)/1)/((6+3)/1))

6/9 = .667

 
On the face, this looks pretty solid.  However, it relies on one flawed assumption: all teams are on a level playing field for road games.  However, this is not true.  Baseball has an unbalanced schedule in which you play many more games against teams in your own division that you do against teams in other division.  Your road stats will be affected by the fact that you play a disproportionate number of games in those parks.

To examine this flaw in greater detail, let’s construct a league as such.

National League – 16 teams

• 8 teams play in parks that have a league average of homers allowed
• 4 teams play in parks that allow 80% as many homers as the league average
• 4 teams play in parks that allow 120% as many homers as the league average

The National League, as a whole, is thus neutral.

American League: 14 teams, whose parks average out to neutral.

My team plays in a park that allows a league average number of home runs.  For the sake of simplicity, let’s set this at 1 HR/game (total for both teams).

The four other teams in my division play in pitcher’s park that allow 80% as many homers as a neutral park (0.8/game).

Of the other eleven teams in the league, there are seven that play in neutral parks and four that player in hitter’s parks that allow 1.2 homers/game.

A typical unbalanced National League schedule has 72 games against divisional opponents, 75 against the rest of the league (6.82 games per team), and 15 against American League teams.  The last few numbers vary a slight bit due to the fact that there are more teams in the National league that the American League.

My unbalanced schedule will be constructed similar to this:

• 81 games at home:  (81 games X 1.0 HR/game = 81 HR)
• 36 games (half of the 72) at divisional parks:  (36 X 0.8 = 28.8 HR)
• 3.41 road games (half the 6.82) against each of the 7 neutral park teams (3.41 X 7 teams X 1.0 HR/game = 23.87 HR)
• 3.41 road games (half the 6.82) against each of the 4 hitter’s park teams (3.41 X 4 teams X 1.2 HR/game = 16.368 HR)
• 7.5 road games against AL teams (half of the 15), assuming a neutral sampling of parks (7 games X 1.0 HR/game = 7.5 HR)

Home: 81 HR

Road:  76.538 HR

Calculated park factor: 81/76.538 = 1.058

The unbalanced schedule has made it appear that the neutral park is 5.8% easier to homer in – but it’s really not!  If you plop this exact same park into a division where the other teams play in hitter friendly environments, you’ll see the opposite effect – the ESPN park factor will suggest that the park is pitcher-friendly.

The ESPN park factors are OK for quick and dirty analysis, but take them with a grain of salt.  This is particular true when the parks within a division lean heavily one way – a park that goes against the grain in that division will have its own effect exaggerated.

Kosmo is filling in for Johnny Goodman on the sports beat this week.

The Masters

To call me a golf fan would be an absurd exaggeration. In general, I check to see home local boy Zach Johnson is doing and see who wins. This week – even with the return of Tiger Woods – it was the same drill here. Tiger fell a bit short and Phil Mickelson picked up another green jacket. I can’t help but cheer for Mickelson, who faced the dual adversity of his wife and his mother being diagnosed with breast cancer last year.

Country Joe Sings the Wrong Tune

Baseball umpire Joe West – also a country music singer – ruffled some feathers on both sides of the Yankees – Red Sox rivalry by saying the two teams were pathetic because of the length of the games they played.

This annoyed me for a couple of reasons. First of all, the umpire is supposed to be an impartial observer. When he made these comments, West crossed a line. If these sorts of statements are to be made, they should come from the commissioner’s office (which later did make a comment about the length of games).

Even more annoying, though, is the continued emphasis on the length of games. One of the beauties of baseball is the fact that it is untimed. You can typically estimate the length of football of basketball games. Baseball is an entirely different beast. You can get a two hour game if the pitchers are working quickly and the batters are swinging at everything. On the flip side, you can have a four hour game if the pitchers are working slowly and the batters are patient.

In baseball, a team is never eliminated until the last out is made. This isn’t the case in other sports. You can’t make up a twenty eight point deficit in fifteen seconds in football. It’s a technical impossibility – you wouldn’t have enough time to execute the necessary players. In baseball, though, you can rally from a 10-0 deficit with two outs in the ninth. As long as you keep getting hits, the game will continues.

Have you ever been to a great rock concert and later, complained about the length? Of course not. If the experience is of poor quality, this is a problem. If it’s merely excess quantity, this really isn’t a problem.

The Resin Bag

Nationals prospect Stephen Strasburg and Reds farmhand Aroldis Chapman both began their minor league careers with strong performances. Don’t expect either of these guys to stay down very long. Once the teams are assured of having their free agency (and possibly arbitration) delayed, these guys will pop up to the majors.

Meanwhile, Mike Leake jumped into the Reds rotation without any minor league experience. If Chappy is indeed being kept down for financial reasons, then why did the Reds keep Leake with the big club to start the season? They could have delayed Leake’s free agency in a similar fashion. Any chance that the Reds will demote Leake when Chappy is promoted – for just enough time to delay his free agency?

CC Sabathia put up a strong performance on Saturday night, taking a no-hit big into the eighth inning. I love the anticipation of a no-hitter in progress and always pull for the pitcher.

On the Rockies beat, Jorge de la Rosa started off his 2010 campaign strong, tossing seven innings of one hit ball. Keep an eye on George of the Rose. He started last year 0-6 with a 5.43 ERA before rallying to finish 16-9 with a 4.38 ERA. For those of you keeping score at home, that means he went 16-3 with a 3.94 ERA from June 5th through the end of the season. The ERA might not seem dominant … but bear in mind that his home park is Coors Field.

Matt Holliday of the Cardinals is off to a hot start, with three homers in seven games (he is, of course, playing second fiddle to Albert Pujols, who has five).  I have always contended that Holliday’s bat would play anywhere.  Clearly Coors Field boosted his numbers … but not by as much as the raw home/road splits would make you think.  If you compare Holliday’s differential to those of other Rockies, you’d quickly noticed that his differential dwarfed those of the teammates.  Either the park was exceptionally well suited for him … or he’s simply the sort of player who thrives in front of a home crowd.  Hey, guess what – his home OPS was 150 points high than his road OPS last year … despite being in Oakland (bad hitter’s park) at the beginning of the year.  As a point of comparison, across baseball, the typical player has an OPS 30 points higher at home.  I’m expecting a strong season from Happy this year as well.

I made a rookie goof in fantasy baseball and neglected to pay attention to my starting lineup.  As a result, I had a sub-standard lineup in place for week 1.  My Yura Peeins fell to Johnny Goodman’s team 6-4.  I lost two pitching categories and four of the five hitting categories – nabbing the only win in steals.  Honestly, though, even with my A lineup, I would probably have lost by the same score.

This article was first published on Feburary 17, 2009.  Early in this year’s new baseball season, I bring it to you again.  I have added a couple of sites to the original list (denoted in brackets).  I have also, sadly, removed one good site that died.  RIP From Small Ball to the Long Ball.

Another baseball season is finally upon us! I follow baseball with a passion that borders on addiction. Well, perhaps it’s beyond the border. The internet is a great place to get information. I have compiled a list of some of my favorite baseball sites.

MLB.com, of course, is the official site of Major League Baseball. In addition to news, standings, etc, MLB.com is home to MLB.tv and MLB Audio. For $100 (or $120 for premium content) you can watch any game on your computer (subject to blackout restrictions) all season long. For $19.95, you can listen to the audio feed of any game (not subject to blackout). This is a nice, cheap option for following out of market teams.

MLBTradeRumors is a nonstop source of rumors about trades and free agent signings. Updates occur multiple times during the day, hitting a frantic pace at the trade deadline. The guy who runs the site scours multitudes of other sources in an effort to compile every rumor.

SportsBlog Nation is a compilation of blogs from every major sport. The folks who run each blog keep up to date on every aspect of the team and pass the knowledge on to you. In addition to covering the major league team, they also keep you up to date on all of the minor league teams in your organization. The fan interaction is also a great feature. Game threads – in which fans are commenting on game action as it occurs – is pretty cool.

Renowned minor league analyst John Sickels runs Minorleagueball.com. John is one of the most knowledgeable minor league experts in the country. He publishes a book on prospects every year, but he also gives out an incredible amount of free information on his site.

There’s also the official Minor League site. MILB.com posts draftee profiles each spring.  Andy Seiler’s MLB Bonus Baby site [2010 new addition to my list] is another great draft resource.

You can find player salary information in several places, but COT’s Baseball Contracts keeps tracks of all the nitty gritty details – such as incentives and service time (helpful for determining when players will be eligible for arbitration or free agency).

baseball-reference.com is the best place I have found for baseball statistics. It tends to allow you to delve a bit more deeply into the numbers. In addition to tons of great content, BR’s premium “PI” service allows you to do some really deep searching. You can subscribe to PI for very short time periods (as low as $2.00 for 24 hours) so you don’t necessarily need to pay the $29 annual fee for a short research project.

Fangraphs goes into a lot of depth in their statistics. Considering the name, it should come as no surprise that they also have graphs on the site. The graphs show how player performance has differed from year to year, while also comparing the performance to the MLB average for those statistics.

The Lahman Database is a free (donations accepted) compilation of statistics for every player from 1871-present. MS Access, SQL, and CSV formats available.

The College Baseball Blog, not surprisingly, follows the college game [2010 new addition to my list].  NCAA baseball gets a lots less attention than its football and basketball cousin, in large part because much of the elite talent is drafted out of high school and come up through the minor league ranks.  As such, you typically have to hunt for good information.  This site is a great one-stop shop for college ball.

Summer Ball covers collegiate players, with a specific focus on the collegiate summer leagues. The summer leagues use wood bats instead of the aluminum bats used in NCAA games. If a player performs well in a summer league, it can often boost their stock in the draft, since the adjustment to wood can be a problem for some players.

Nippon Baseball Tracker covers Japanese leagues.

MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement can be downloaded in PDF format. I actually have a printed copy of the CBA which I keep in a binder. I wouldn’t say that it is a page turner, but it is great for settling arguments.

I have been a fan of the Colorado Rockies since their inaugural season in 1993.  I had deserted the Cubs the previous winter after losing confidence in the front office in the aftermath of Greg Maddux leaving town.  I decided make a clean break, and picked an expansion team to follow.

I live 800 miles from Denver.  This means that I’ve only been to one game at Coors Field, and that I have rarely had the opportunity to catch a game on TV.  Unless they play the Cubs or the Cardinals, the game is not on TV.  I have been a longtime purchaser of MLB.com’s audio package, and have listened to a lot of games over the years.

This year would be different.  I purchased the MLB Extra Innings package through DirecTV.  I would now be able to watch every Rockies game!  I looked forward to opening day.

Imagine my frustration when I found out that that game was blacked out.  Why?  Because Iowa is considered a “local market” for the opponents of the Rockies, the Milwaukee Brewers.  I have lived in Iowa nearly all my life, and I have met exactly one Brewers fan during this time.  He was in town on a temporary assignment and was from Wisconsin.

Iowa is considered a local market for six teams – the Cubs, Cardinals, White Sox, Twins, Brewers, and Royals.

The main reason for blackouts is to force people to watch game on local and regional channels.  This would make some sense – if those teams were actually available to me on local and regional channels.  I can tune in to nearly every Cubs games.  Most White Sox games are also available to me.  A smattering of Cardinals games appear on the WB during the season.

As for the Twins, Brewers, and Royals?  There is no way for me to tune into these games.

There is also gross inequality in the system.  My friend Lazy Man hails from Boston.  How many teams are blacked out in Boston?  Just one – the Red Sox.  The Sox are readily available on a regional channel.  Lazy Man currently resides in the Bay area.  How many teams are blacked out there?  Two – the Giants and A’s.  Again, both teams are readily available on local and regional channels.  Contrast this with Iowa and Nevada, which each have six teams blacked out.

The fact that I am paying a premium price for this package makes me even more upset.  If Major League Baseball is really that concerned that my ability to tune into a Rockies – Brewers game via MLB Extra Innings will somehow take money away from the local stations that carry the Brewers games, there’s a really easy solution for that.  Take some of the money that they get from me (via the conduit of DirecTV) and pay some of it to those stations.  Problem solved.  Baseball has a happy customer who will renew Extra Innings next year and the Brewers stations are being fairly compensated.

Want to know what teams are blacked out in which areas?  Here’s a nifty map.  It’s from 2006, and while there may be slightly more updated maps available, I have found this one to be the easiest to understand.