The SoapBoxers

Matt Holliday

Matt Holliday recently finalized his contract with the St. Louis Cardinals.  This definitely solidifies Holliday in the #2 spot on my baseball preference rankings.  I was extremely pleased to see Holliday stay with the Cardinals rather than ending up in Boston or New York (especially New York).

If Holliday puts up strong numbers with the Cardinals, it should tear down a bit of the stigma Coors Field.  While Holliday always put up strong very strong home numbers compared to his road numbers, his home/road splits were not in line with other Rockies hitters – they were much more dramatic.  This would indicate that some other factor was coming into play.  My personal thought is that he simply was more comfortable at home than on the road.  While hitters typically produce an OPS 31 points higher at home that on the road, this varies greatly.  Some hitters thrive at home while others wilt under the pressure of playing in front of the home crowd.  Holliday is a home thriver – as evidenced by his 2009 home/road split of .982/.830.  That’s a monstrous split – and clearly had nothing to do with Coors Field.

Holliday’s contract has an eighth year (at $17 million) that would vest if he finishes in the top 10 in National League MVP voting in 2016 (if it doesn’t vest, it becomes a team option).  While vesting options aren’t unprecedented, they usually vest based on some statistic such as plate appearances (hitters) or innings pitched (pitchers).  In this case, Holliday’s option is in the hands of the Baseball Writers of America, who vote on the awards.  He could have a great year in 2016 and still not crack the top 10.  On the flip side, this is a great deal far the Cardinals.  It’s hard to imagine a situation where Holliday would finish in the top 10 and not be worthy of the $17 million option.

Kurt Warner

The Arizona Cardinals were bounced out of the playoff by the top NFC seed, the New Orleans Saints, on Saturday.  Warner suffered a hard hit while trying to track down a defender who intercepted one of his passes and finished with lackluster numbers (17-26, 205, 0 TD, 1 INT).

After the game, the discussion about a potential retirement began again.  If the Saints game ends up the career finale for Warner, it would be a shame.  The prior week’s game against the Green Bay Packers would have been a more fitting end to a Hall of Fame career.  In that game, Warner completed 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and 5 TDs without being intercepted.  That performance corresponded to a rating of 154.1.  The NFL’s convoluted rating formula (which takes into account completion percentages, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage and interception percentage) tops out at 158.33, making that performance nearly perfect.

I’m a big fan of Warner’s.  Most fans know his story.  He started for only one season at division 1-AA Northern Iowa, wasn’t drafted by and NFL team, and ended up stocking shelves in a grocery store at one point (for a grand wage of $5.50 per hour).  After lighting up the Arena League and NFL Europe, before getting a chance to be a backup quarterback for the St. Louis Rams.  When started Trent Green went down to an injury during the 1999 pre-season, Warner stepped up and led the Rams to a spectacular season, capped off with a Super Bowl victory.  Two years later, the Rams lost a heartbreaker in another Super Bowl.  Injuries eventually forced Warner out of St. Louis.  He landed with the New York Giants as the tutor for Eli Manning.  He then signed with the hapless Arizona Cardinals – before leading them also to a Super Bowl (alas, another heartbreaking defeat).  Now, at age 38, he seems to be a lock for the Hall of Fame.

Off the field, Warner is a devout Christian and is heavily involved in many charities.

I have a few more reasons to like Kurt Warner.  First of all, I have met the man, and he definitely appears to be the genuine article.  My wife is a Rams fan, and we attended a few training camps.  Warner would sit at a table for hours signing autographs and posing for pictures.  Very cool.

Second, Warner is a native Iowan, and we stick together.  He’s on my Mt. Rushmore.

Finally, Warner led me to a title in the first fantasy football league title in 1999.  In the first game of that season, one of my quarterbacks got hurt.  On a lark, I picked up Warner.  I grew up about 50 miles from the campus of Northern Iowa, so I was familiar with him.  When Warner exploded into a flurry of mind-blowing statistics, I went along for the ride.

On January 6^th, the Baseball Hall of Fame announced that the Baseball Writers of America (BBWA) had selected Andre Dawson as their sole choice for 2010 induction into the hallowed halls of Cooperstown.

I was a Cubs fan when Dawson won the MVP in 1987 – his 49 homers nabbing the award despite a last place finish by Chicago.  Dawson is one of just three players in major league history with at least 400 homers and 300 steals (Barry Bonds and Willie Mays being the others).

Dawson was a victim of collusion by MLB owners when he became a free agent after the 1986 season (read all about it here – the owners were found guilty) and ended up signing a contract for “just” $500,000 for the 1987 season.  (Yep, that’s still a lot of money, but far below the market value).

Bert Blyleven, in his thirteenth year on the ballot, got tantalizingly close to election, garnering 400 votes – falling just 5 votes shorts of the 75% required for election.  Players tend to pick up a bit of momentum in the last couple of years on the ballot (they are on the ballot for 15 years), so it is an almost certainty that Blyleven will make it in 2011.  (Read my case for Blyleven).

In his first year on the ballot, Roberto Alomar fell just 8 votes short of induction.  Alomar likely would have had the necessary votes if not for an ugly incident on September 27, 1996.  During a heated argument, Alomar spit in the face of umpire John Hirschbeck.  Alomar’s version of events was that the umpire had used an ethnic slur, and some viewers contended that Hirschbeck called the player a “faggot” as he walked away.

Should this incident have kept Alomar out of the Hall?  I’m going to say no.  Why not?  Because John Hirschbeck long ago forgave Alomar, and Alomar has become a fund raiser for the fight against adrenoleukodystrophy, a rare disease which afflicted two of Hirschbeck’s sons.  If Hirschbeck forgave Alomar of his sins, should we not due the same?

Other notable players on the ballot:

In his first year on the ballot, former Reds shortstop Barry Larkin picked up 51.6% of the vote. Larkin will – and should – eventually be elected.  He was a player I loved to hate.

Jack Morris – the winningest pitcher of the 1980s and a three time World Series champion – had the fourth highest vote total, with 52.3%.  However, in his 11^th year on the ballot, he might not be able to push above 75% before he falls off the ballot.

All time saves leader Lee Smith continues his long journey.  Smith picked up 478 career saves to go along with a 3.03 ERA.  There was the thought that Bruce Sutter’s election in 2006 might open the door a crack for Smith, but this hasn’t been the case.

Edgar Martinez got 36.2% of the vote in his first year on the ballot.  Martinez was primarily a DH during his career, playing in the field in only 561 of his 2055 career games.  I’m on record as hating the designated hitter.  Having said that, if we are to allow DHs into the Hall of Fame, Martinez should be welcomed in with open arms.

As for the five voters who returned blank ballots – seriously, none of the players on the ballot deserved your vote?  Did you even watch baseball in the 1980s?

During most of the more than 130 years that major league baseball has been played, the measurement of defensive excellence was done using one simple stat: errors. To this day, many who vote for gold glove winners make errors the major consideration (or, in some situation, they make the absurd choice to factor in the player’s offensive contributions).

Errors are a funny thing. First of all, an error is the judgment of the home team’s official scorer. All official scorers are not created equal – some are more kind to fielders than others. If you happen to play for a scorer who doesn’t call many errors, you’ll rack up fewer errors. The field itself can also contribute to the number of errors. Some fields produce a more consistent movement from the ball, while others are more prone to odd hops. A team can also choose to allow the grass to grow higher – with the result being that the ball is moving more slowly, thus giving the fielder more time to react (this does have the related effect of allowing batters to more easily beat out an infield hit).

So, what, then, should we use? Putouts and assists? These are just as bad. First of all, strikeouts can affects these numbers. A team whose pitchers rack up a lot of strikeouts will result in relatively few chances for fielders to make a play on the ball. Additionally, the quality of the other players also has an effect. Put a great defensive shortstop alongside a second baseman and third baseman who have limited range, and the shortstop is going to rack up some very impressive assist numbers, as he’ll suck up everything between second and third. On the other hand, put great defensive players and second base, shortstop, and third base, and it is likely that all of them will have strong statistics, but none of them will produce eye popping numbers. Why? Because regardless of how good this trio is, there are a finite number of balls that will be hit into this area – and they are competing with each other for the chances.

There are advanced defensive metrics to measure the quality of the defense, but these aren’t something the casual fan is going to be able to measure easily. I would suggest a rather simple system for scoring at home. The system is based on the fact that the defensive player’s goal should not merely be to reduce the number of errors they make, but to minimize the number of base runners the teams allows.

• Error on a routine play: -1 points
• Error on what would have been a great play: 0 points
• Didn’t get to a ball he should have gotten to: -1 points
• Great defensive play: +1 points

What does this system do? First, it rewards a player for making an effort on a player that would typically go for a hit. Even if the player fails to make a play on the ball, he isn’t penalized. Indeed, why should he be penalized? If a player makes a great defensive play to get to a ball, and then pulls the first baseman off the bag with his throw, why treat him worse (by charging him with an error) than a player who never got to the ball in the first place?

The second thing the system does is penalize players who have deficient range. If I don’t get to a ball that 90% of players in the league would get to, this is just as bad as if I get to the ball and make an error – in either case, the runner reaches.

Use this system for a while and see what it tells you about player on your team. Maybe that error-prone defensive player is actually saving your team a ton of runs because he’s getting to balls that nobody else would lay a glove on (and occasionally making errors on those balls). Maybe that gold glove second baseball rarely makes an error because he has the range of a mannequin.

In January, the Baseball Writers of America will announce the 2010 Hall of Fame class. For the thirteenth time, Bert Blyleven will be on the ballot. Twelve prior times, he has fallen short in his bid for enshrinement at Cooperstown. I truly hope that this is the year for Bert.

To make my case for Blyleven, I’ll compare him to another pitcher.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Pitcher A:

• Over the course of 692 games, compiled a .534 winning percentage.
• Compiled a career ERA of 3.31
• Had an adjusted ERA+ of 118 (this is an advanced statistic that adjusts ERA for ballpark and the pitcher’s league. A higher number is better).
• Had a career strikeout : walk ratio of 2.80
• Compiled 15 or more wins in 10 different seasons
• Compiled 15 or more losses in 7 seasons (5 of these seasons before he turned 26).
• Never won a Cy Young award

Pitcher B:

• Over the course of 807 games, compiled a .526 winning percentage.
• Compiled a career ERA of 3.19.
• Compiled a career ERA+ of 111 (remember, higher is better).
• Had a career strikeout : walk ratio of 2.04
• Compiled 15 or more wins in 8 different seasons
• Compiled 15 or more losses in 6 seasons
• Never won a Cy Young award

Based on those resumes, which pitcher would you give the nod to? I’d lean toward pitcher A. Although his actual ERA is higher, when adjusted to ERA+, it is better than pitcher B’s. His strikeout : walk ratio shows a better command of the strike zone.

It won’t surprise you that pitcher A is Bert Blyleven.

It may surprise you that pitcher B is first ballot Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan.

Ryan is of course known for his strikeouts. He is the all-time leader with 5714 (Blyleven is 5th at 3701). Randy Johnson, at 4875 and counting, is in second place and will probably wind up slightly above 5000 (or roughly 87.5% of Ryan’s record). Are strikeouts really that important? (Hint: read this article for your answer.)

What’s not as well known is that Ryan is also the career leader for walks, with 2795. Steve Carlton is a very distant second at 1833 (65.6% of Ryan’s record).

While it is extremely unlikely that anyone will ever break Ryan’s strikeout record, it is a virtual certainty that nobody will break the walk record. A pitcher who walks batters at Ryan’s rate would quickly find himself on a bus back to AAA.

Ryan has 324 wins to Blyleven’s 287 (and also 292 losses to Bert’s 250). Wins are a problematic statistic because of the limited impact the pitcher has. Take a pitcher from the Nationals and put him on the staff of the Yankees, and his wins will skyrocket due to increased run support.

In this particular case, the fact that Ryan hung around until age 46 (while Blyleven retired at 41) is largely responsible for the difference. Ryan compiled a 51-39 record those final five years, pushing his career record from 273 – 253 to the end result of 324 – 292. Longevity is nice, but is that 51-39 record over those five years really the difference between a slam-dunk Hall of Famer and a guy at risk of never making it?

This brings us, naturally, to the no hitters. Ryan had seven while Blyleven had just one. A no hitter is great, and seven of them are a wonderful achievement. But this simply shows that on a particular night, the pitcher was dominant and/or lucky. It’s a nice footnote for a career, but it shouldn’t be the main credential for a hall of famer.  Seven nights accounts for 1% of the career starts from these guys.  The other 99% should have a bit more weight.

I’m not suggesting that we remove Nolan Ryan from the Hall of Fame – but if his credentials warranted votes from 98.8% of voters, surely Blyleven’s credential should be judged worthy by at last 75% of the voters.

This is the worst week for sports this time of year. No college football….does anyone else feel the same way.

So with nothing really FUN to talk about here are a few quick hits this week in the world of sports.

Roy Halladay vs Cliff Lee. The baseball pundits are already spinning their webs on this one. I like Halladay more, much much more. He has been in the brutal American League East for years pitching on bad teams and dominating the competition. He will go to the National League and be totally dominating, even more so than he has been. Cliff Lee …. two seasons does not a career make.

Jake Locker – What are you doing? You have the chance to be the number one overall pick in the NFL draft according to some of the experts. Come back for your senior year for the Huskies? It is not like your team is going to contend for the National Title or even Rose Bowl for that matter. Take the money and run kid. Even if you have a good year in 2010 you are STILL going to get drafted high by a crappy team in the NFL, and the money won’t be near as good one Goodell restructures the rookie contracts this off-season.

Tiger Woods – Just when you thought you had heard it all, now possible ties to doctors that have prescribed steroids and HGH to the likes of Marion Jones and A-Rod. Could it get any worse for Eldrick? Can’t wait to see what transpires with this story in the next couple of days.

Toby Gerhart once again proves the East and Southeast bias in the media is alive and well. We have too many folks voting for the Heisman. How you can have Colt McCoy ahead of Gerhard on ANY ballot is a crime. I am still not convinced Ingram is the best candidate but I do think the person that should have won the award got jobbed.

And now the all obvious NFL comments of the week

Will everyone on ESPN quit talking about the Dallas Cowboys? We get it already, they don’t win in December. We can watch our Plasma big screens and figure that one out by ourselves.

Here is another news flash, Randy Moss appears frustrated and played like a pouting four year old on this past Sunday. Have we heard this story before.

And while we are at it … Will the Colts sit their players? Will the Saints sit their players? Who freaking cares? They are both going to the playoffs. Just as long as I don’t have to listen to another crappy 1972 Dolphins and drinking Champagne reference over the next couple of weeks.

Here is hoping next week has better “and fresher” stories to talk about

Bah Humbug!

Red Sox sign Mike Cameron, John Lackey

The Red Sox snuck one past me yesterday by signing Mike Cameron to patrol their outfield.  I had been under the assumption that the Red Sox would sign either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday to patrol left field, and was a bit stunned to hear of the signing.  Cameron is a fine defensive player (a three time gold glove winner), but is a big step down from Bay or Holliday offensively. 

Cameron, who will turn 37 in January, is also considerably older than Holliday (who will be 30 in January) or Bay (32 in September).  Players tend to lose a step as they age, and their offensive skills tend to erode.  So it is pretty likely (almost a certainty) that the Red Sox will get less offense from Cameron than they would from Bay or Holliday.  Cameron is a better defender, although defensive range is less important in Fenway Park than in other ballparks because the left field wall is very shallow.  The ability to gauge where balls will ricochet off the 37 foot high Green Monster is more important than foot speed.

On the flip side, the two year deal, worth a total of $15.5 million, is a lot less money than Bay or Holliday will command (easily twice that much, and for five or more years.)  The Red Sox may have simply decided that it would be more cost effective to upgrade a corner infield sport (with either 3B Adrian Beltre or 1b Adrian Gonzalez).  Gonzalez has come into the spotlight a bit in recent years, but Mr. Eyebrows still doesn’t get the respect he deserves.  His raw numbers (3 straight 30+ homer season, 40 homers and a .958 OPS in 2009) are impressive.  When you stop to think that he plays in a park (Petco) that greatly depresses offense, the numbers are even more amazing.  Put him in Fenway, and he’ll win a couple of MVP awards.

The signing is bad news for Bay and Holliday, as it takes a rich suitor off the table. Bay and Holliday will certainly get some serious coin in their deals, but the Cameron deal may end up costing them a couple of million dollars per year. 

The Red Sox also shored up their rotation by signing right handed starting pitcher John Lackey.  This move makes sense on a number of levels.  Other than the cash given to Lackey ($85 million over five years), the marginal acquisition cost was merely a second round pick.  The Red Sox had signed Marco Scutaro (another type A free agent) earlier in the offseason, and were thus bound to lose their 2010 1^st round pick.  Signing Lackey merely means that their 2010 first rounder will go to Anaheim as compensation for losing Lackey, while reducing Oakland’s compensation for Scutaro to a 2^nd rounder.  Additionally, taking Lackey away from the Angels makes it a bit easier for Boston to get past the Angels, if they were to face them in the playoffs.  While Lackey isn’t as flashy as some of the other top pitchers, he’s definitely an ace-caliber guy.

Phillies Acquire Ace, Trade Away Ace

The Phillies made waves by finally ending Roy Halladay’s long twist in the wind by acquiring Doc from the Toronto Blue Jays.  The Phillies then turned around and traded their existing ace, Cliff Lee, to the Seattle Mariners.  Prospects were the counterweight in both trades.  Halladay is a year older than Lee, but has been a more consistent performer over the course of their careers.  Additionally, Halladay is righthanded (Lee was a lefty), allowing the Phillies to pair him with Cole Hamels for a righty/lefty combination at the top of their rotation.  While the Phillies were able to neutralize teams that were heavily left handed (the Rockies in the NLDS for example) because of the lefty-dominant rotation, having a balance of righty/lefty makes them a bit less susceptible to teams that lean heavily one way or the other.

Earlier this week, the Red Sox signed shortstop Marco Scutaro. Scutaro (who has a wicked awesome name) was a “type A” free agent who was formerly with the Toronto Blue Jays. As compensation for losing him, the Blue Jays are entitled to the Red Sox’s 2010 first round draft pick, as well as a sandwich pick between the first and second round (sandwich picks are mysteriously invented and inserted into the draft – very strange).

There is, of course, a twist. If the Red Sox sign a type A free agent with a higher Elias rating than Scutaro, the team losing the higher ranked player would get the first round pick (and a sandwich) and the Blue Jays would get the Red Sox’s second round pick and a sandwich. And if the Red Sox signed TWO higher ranked players, the Blue Jays would get Boston’s third round pick and the sandwich.

Something similar happened to the Blue Jays last year. They lost type A free agent A.J. Burnett to the Yankees, but got their compensatory pick pushed back to the third round when the Yankees signed higher rated players Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia.

In my opinion, the Scutaro signing is the tip of the iceberg for Boston. I think they will go after Matt Holliday very strongly. This would mean that the Cardinals would get their first round pick, and that Toronto would get their second round pick as compensation for Scutaro. Sacrificing a first round pick for a player of Scutaro’s ability seems to be overpaying for the talent. Sacrificing a second rounder seems like a fairer price. Not only that, but Boston would be able to boast a stronger team when they try to woo Holliday.

Clearly, Toronto doesn’t want Boston to sign Holliday, since this would decrease their compensation for Scutaro. In fact, it would be in their best interest to attempt to steer Holliday (and other players rated higher than Scutaro) away from Boston and onto the rosters of other teams.

How would they do this? One thought would be to engage Holliday (or, more likely, his agent, Scott Boras) in discussions, perhaps by making an offer that is not exactly a lowball, but not at the level it will take to sign him either. When the talks reach their inevitable impasse, direct the conversation to topics that make the Red Sox look bad and other suitors look good. Alternately, Toronto could simply leak disturbing rumors to sources in the press.

I don’t mean to suggest that the Blue Jays actually will use these tactics. I really don’t think they will. But the fact of the matter is that the current system would reward them if they were somehow able to sabotage Boston’s signings.

I don’t know what the solution is. Allowing each team to sign only one type A free agent doesn’t seem feasible. Nor would pushing back a compensatory pick into the future (for example, giving Toronto Boston’s 2011 first round pick for Scutaro if they signed Holliday).

Quite honestly, the entire system of compensatory picks is flawed and in need of a serious overhaul. Some of the statistics used in the Elias ratings are problematic.  For example, fielding percentage is one of the stats used to rank catchers.  Catchers are credited with a putout when a pitcher strikes out a batter.  This means that catchers on teams with high strikeout pitchers will have a better fielding percentage than a comparable catcher on a team with groundball pitchers – simply because they have a higher number of “chances”.  Perhaps a worse flaw is that the rating system does not adjust for age. In reality, a 27 year old has more value than a 39 year old with the same stats.

The system is starting to catch a few players who are unrealistically rated as type A. After they decline arbitration, they realize that no team wants to sign them because while they happen to be a fine baseball player, they aren’t worth a first round pick. The current collective bargaining agreement expires in 2011 – perhaps that would be a good time to tear down the current system and build a new one in its place.

We are on the cusp of the baseball free agent signing season. This means that the vilification of player agent Scott Boras will soon begin in earnest. For those who are somehow unfamiliar with Mr. Boras, he is the premier agent in baseball, representing a cadre of superstar players including Matt Holliday, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and many others.

To say that Boras is a tough negotiator is akin to saying that Warren Buffet has a decent nest egg for his retirement – a gross understatement. Boras is tough as nails, willing to use any tactic as leverage for getting maximum value for his client. His clients rarely give their team a “hometown discount”. Boras client often sign at the very last minute – and often don’t sign, electing instead to return to college (if they are eligible).

Not surprisingly, many teams – and their fans – despise Boras, blaming him for any of all of the problems with the game today. I take exception to that characterization. Boras’ role is not that of some benevolent fan ombudsman. His role is to represent the interests of his clients and ensure that they receive the best possible package of financial and non-financial benefits. He would be derelict in his duties (and a possible target of malpractice suits) if he were to leave money on the table “for the good of the game.”

One thing that seems to get overlooked in the Boras bashing is that salaries for baseball draftees lag behind salaries for top NFL picks. Stephen Strasburg’s contract – paying him $15.1 million over four years (a pro-rated 2009 salary, as well as 2010-2012) – was the subject of much debate over the summer. Many were outraged at the value of the contract.

On the flip side, top NFL draft pick Matthew Stafford (who is just a few months older than Strasburg) signed a six year contract that is worth $72 million (plus an additional $6 million in incentive bonuses) – with $41.7 million in guaranteed money. [Note: unlike baseball contracts, football contracts are not fully guaranteed].

Stafford is definitely a fine football player. However, he is not of the same relative caliber of Strasburg, who is widely regarded as a once-in-a-generation talent. Yet Stafford will walk away with $41.7 million even if he becomes a complete bust (like Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, etc before him). If Strasburg busts, he’ll get $15.1 million. So, remind me again why the Strasburg deal is a big travesty and the Stafford deal is business-as-usual?

Baseball teams have long enjoyed the luxury of having more control over a player’s salary than any of the other major sports. For the first hundred years of professional baseball, teams had complete control. Baseball’s “reserve clause” made it possible for teams to re-sign players at whatever salary they wanted. The players were bound to the team for life, so they had minimal leverage. They could refuse to sign a contract, but they couldn’t sign with any other team. Finally, in 1975, the reserve clause was struck down, paving the way for free agency.

In today’s system, players are drafted (or signed as undrafted free agents) by major league teams. They are then signed to what is most often a minor league contract. Essentially, this pays them peanuts during most of their minor league years. The MAXIMUM salary for a player in their first minor league season is $1100/month. They only way for the players to earn any substantial money during their early minor league years is by getting a signing bonus with the contract. For first round picks, this can mean millions of dollars. For players in the later rounds, this can be a few thousand dollars, or nothing at all (usually for players who have no college eligibility remaining, and thus minimal leverage).

After a player reaches the Major Leagues, they are under the team’s control until they have accumulated six seasons of service. Note that this does not simply mean they have been in the Major Leagues during six seasons – it means that they have been on the active roster (or disabled list) for the equivalent of six full seasons. Most often, a player does not become a free agent until after their seventh Major League season (or later).

Players with fewer than three years of service (other than a subset of players we’ll discuss later) can be renewed by their team at a minimum salary, regardless of performance. A player could win the MVP in his rookie season and not get a substantial raise – and could make substantially less than the crappy veteran relief pitcher who has the neighboring locker.

Players with three years of service – as well as the players who are in the top 16% (in terms of service time) of players who have more than two years of service – are eligible for salary arbitration. The player and team submit offers to an arbiter. The arbiter listens to arguments and chooses one of the offers and sets it as the player’s contract for the following year. The arbiter MUST choose one of the numbers – he cannot choose a number in the middle. Players in their arbitration years earn more than in previous years, although they typically earn less than the market rate for their skills.

Finally, after accumulating six years of service – at which point the player is often knocking on the door of age 30 – the player is allowed to become a free agent and may sign with any team.

If a late round pick – one of those guys who signed for a minimal signing bonus – happens to blossom and become a good player (something that happens more often than you might think), he may have spent 4-6 years in a team’s minor league system, and then another six years at the major league level. Finally, after 10-12 years working for a team, he finally had the ability to actually negotiate a contract.

If you waited twelve years for the opportunity to negotiate a contract with your employer, you’d probably want someone like Scott Boras helping you out.

So, what’s up in Kosmo’s world?

I avoided the ladder

I encountered one of my more interesting driving experiences this week.  As I was driving into work, an extension ladder suddenly appeared on the road in front of me.  The ladder was in the two right lanes (of three total lanes) and I was in the right land, so I veered sharply right to avoid the ladder, then back sharply left to avoid leaving the roadway.  I felt a little bad about the lack of control the car exhibited during this maneuver – until I looked in my rear view mirror and saw another driver perform a carbon copy of my move.  I really didn’t need my morning caffeine after that – I was wide awake.

Baywatch (and Hollidaywatch)

Red Sox outfielder Jason Bay rejected a 4 year contract offer worth $60 million from Boston this week.  This sets an apparent floor on the value of Bay and fellow free agent outfielder Matt Holliday.  The emerging consensus, based an advanced statistical measures, is that the two players are comparable offensively (albeit with different strengths and weaknesses), and that Holliday is a better defender.

An interesting quirk is that Boston would actually come out ahead in terms of draft picks by allowing Bay to leave and nabbing Holliday as a free agent.  They would forfeit their first round pick to sign Holliday, but would receive a draft pick from the teams that signs Bay (assuming that a contender signs Bay, this would be a first rounder) as well as a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds.  The sandwiches are truly a free lunch – they picks are artificially added into the draft.  That’s why there are about 40 “first round” picks every year – in spite of the fact that there are only thirty teams.

There’s one important free agent who might be slipping under the radar of a lot of casual fans.  The name is Rudy Jaramillo.  Never heard of him?  What position does he play, you ask?  Hitting coach.  Jaramillo, widely renowned as the best hitting coach in baseball, is moving from the Texas Rangers to Chicago Cubs.  Don’t be surprised if you see several Cubs players have strong seasons at the plate.  Interestingly, the Rangers lose Jaramillo just one season after poaching standout pitching coach Mike Maddux (brother of Greg) from the Brewers.  What goes around, comes around, I guess.

Novels

I recently broke ground on my novel, Casting Stones.  I’ve been kicking around plot ideas for several months, but finally began the actual writing on Halloween.  I pushed past 6000 words on Friday and am making good progress.  The infrastructure for the plot is developing pretty well, with concrete ideas for seventeen chapters.  I see 15,000 words as a turning point – if I can make it to that point, I think there is a strong chance that I an maintain momentum and finish up with a full sized novel.

I’m not the only one working on a book.  Martin Kelly is working on his, of course.  We’ll see another installment of his NaNoWriMo diary tomorrow) and few other folks I know are either in the midst of writing a book, or are seriously considering one.  Go for it!  If you finish the book, great.  In any case, writing a book is an absurdly cheap hobby.

Soon, baseball’s free agents will be signing rich new deals. The Soap Boxers has assembled a panel of baseball fans to predict where the players will go.

The panel consists of:

• Kosmo
• Gabe Tyndal, Casual Observer Science/Nature Writer
• BA, a fan who bleeds Cardinal red.
• Fulton Christopher, a fan who bleeds Cubbie blue.

The top 10 free agents being analyzed are:

• Matt Holliday
• Jason Bay
• John Lackey
• Chone Figgins
• Jose Valverde
• Rich Harden
• Marco Scutaro
• Randy Wolf
• Vladimir Guerrero
• Miguel Tejada

Without further ado, the predictions: