The SoapBoxers

I live in Iowa City, and the big news for about a week has been the medical problems faced by thirteen members of the Hawkeye football program.  The players were hospitalized with rhabdomyolysis, a disorder that is characterized by dark colored urine and can cause kidney problems in extreme cases (public service announcement – if your urine turns a strange color, see a doctor).  Not only were the players affected physically, but they were also taken out of the classroom for a week (after all, these student-athletes are expected to learn as well as play).

Blame has been cast in a number of directions.  Some suggested that the players had been taking drugs.  A parent of one of the affected players told the media that drug tests had been administered to the players and had come back negative.  Some suggested that a weekend after drinking may have exacerbated the effects of the workout.  Others have suggested that the strength and conditioning program itself is at fault (although some former players were quick to come to the defense of the staff).

The university announced that they will investigate the cause and report to the Board of Regents (which oversees the public universities in Iowa) within 90 days.  While I applaud this necessary step, I do wonder if it goes far enough.  As well intentioned as the investigation may be, there might be an inclination to absolve the university of any blame.

The way we should view this incident is as an opportunity to prevent future problems.  Some players have said that while the workouts were grueling, similar workouts had been done in previous years with no adverse affects.  While that may be true, the fact of the matter is that this year there were some extreme adverse effects.  If it were one or two players, I might be convinced that the players were at fault.  However, with about three dozen players participating at the workout that preceded the hospitalization of the players, this means that fully one third of the players were affected.  Something is contributing to the problem.  Perhaps a change in the supplements being taken by the players, or perhaps a seemingly small change to the workout routine.

It seems to me that the NCAA has a vested interest in this.  I’m not suggesting that they should investigate this incident with the goal of meting out punishment, but rather as a way to learn more about the causes of rhabdomyolysis.  Who better to serve as an independent body in the investigation?  Perhaps this is simply an isolated incident … but do we really want to take that risk?  I, for one, don’t want to see an outbreak of rhabdomyolysis at two schools next year and ten more schools the year after that.  Let’s nip it in the bud.

This is a list of the things I like and do not like about the NFL Pro-Bowl.

I do not like that it is the week before the Super Bowl. We already have reduced participation due to some of the higher paid players concern about injury, now we have the Super Bowl participants opting out.

I like that the game is in Hawaii again. I thought that it was actually rather cruel last year when the players went to the Super Bowl City. The celebration of their skills that earned them spots on the Pro-Bowl roster was overwhelmed by Super Bowl questions, including “how do you feel about not being in the Super Bowl?” This is supposed to be a reward for being the best players in the league. Having the game in Hawaii lets these players celebrate with their families and friends.

I do not like that the only impact of the game is deciding which team is the “home” team in the Super Bowl next year. I would like it to determine where the Super Bowl is played. Rather than “awarding” the Super Bowl to a city, almost always in a warm climate or dome, let the Pro-Bowl determine what stadium the Super Bowl is played in. The conference champion of the winning side of the Pro-Bowl should host the Super Bowl. Then we could have some real games, maybe in Chicago or New England. Yeah I have heard all the arguments against cold weather venues, are we playing football here or tennis?

I do like that the coaches actually get almost every player some face time and the announcers have all the statistical sheets to brag about these guys. Some of them come from pretty bad teams and do not get the recognition that they should.

I do not like that the players don’t even try on some plays. I know that this is an exhibition game and no one wants to get hurt, so yes hold up on some of the hits once you have someone stopped. The thing I object to is that for field goals and extra points, everyone just stands up and waits for the kicker to kick the ball.

I do like the kick off plays. These are the only plays that everyone seems to be having fun. No one is hitting too hard and everyone is running around showing how much fun they are having.

My preference, if the commissioner reads this post, is to return to the old format. Play the game in Hawaii the week after the Super Bowl. The only thing I would suggest as an adder would be to have the all star cheer leaders there as well. And for Fox Sports, more focus on the beautiful people in the stands.

[Editor’s note: Brian from BeBetterNow.org (a self improvement web site) follows up his Drew Brees article last week with an article that discusses the relative merits of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.]

In his recent love-fest article praising Drew Brees, Kosmo made this comment – “Manning will go down as the greatest quarterback of this generation (sorry, Brady, but you’re going to come up short in counting stats, such as passing yards and TDs).”

While Brady will come up short to Manning in passing yards and TDs, Manning currently comes up short in playoff record and championship rings. In addition you could look at Winning Percentage by Quarterbacks (there’s a handy sortable column there.) Tom Brady has the highest percentage in NFL history in winning 77.6% of his games. He is 3 percent better than the next best which is Staubach, who is 3% than a guy named Montana. Brady is 10% better than Manning. The difference there between the two is vast.

Manning also had a number of seasons passing to pro-bowl, possibly Hall of Fame quality receivers in Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Most of Brady’s work has been with no big names. He had two seasons with Moss and three with Wes Welker who, as an undrafted free agent, wasn’t exactly known as a great talent before playing with Brady. Finally Brady doesn’t get the advantage of playing half his games in a dome like Manning does… Brady plays in New England where the elements make passing more difficult. You don’t have to look too much futher than the Greatest Show on Turf or the Saints success of late to see that playing a dome is a different game.

When we look at quarterback efficiency (QB Rating), Brady and Manning are neck and neck with Brady having a slight edge. In addition, Brady has 2 of the top 5 best seasons. You may argue that QB rating is the best statistic. I would agree with that. For example, the statistic of touchdowns for quarterbacks is suspect. How many times have you seen a quarterback throw a 50 yard bomb to see the player get tackled on the 1. The next few plays are typically running plays to get the score. Should that quarterback be rated lower than the one whose receiver didn’t get tackle at the 1? It doesn’t make sense. However, the compenents of completion percentage, yards per attempt and interceptions make sense. Some may argue that interceptions can be deceptive as there are bad bounces, but those should even out for all quarterbacks. It shouldn’t be surprising that while Manning has great TD numbers, Brady has the far better interception numbers.

It seems you can get into the Hall two ways. You can be a Dan Marino win great stats (61,000 yards and 420 TDs), but be considered a post-season failure. You can be a Troy Aikman with a very mediocre stats (32,945 yards, 165 TDs, and a 81.6 QB rating) with three Super Bowl rings. I would suggest that Tom Brady is a more complete player at this point with the ability to put up the stats of Manning in any given season combined with 3 Super Bowl rings.

[Editor’s note:  Today’s article is written by Brian from BeBetterNow.org, a site devoted to self improvement. Today, Brian attempts to help me improve myself for telling me why I’m wrong about Drew Brees being a Hall of Famer in our midst.]

Recently Kosmo asked the question Is Drew Brees a Hall of Famer?. In it he brought up some comparisons to Peyton Manning and made a very good case that Brees belongs in the Hall.

Pass Happy NFL and Trust in your QB

Kosmo brought up a great point:

“Is Brees a product of a pass-happy era in the NFL? Sure. But there’s a reason why everyone isn’t racking up 4500 passing yards per year. Most coaches don’t trust their quarerback to throw the ball 650 times per year.”

It’s worth looking at the pass-happy era of the NFL. The rules for contact have been changed over the years. You can barely touch the quarterback any more. If you get near a receiver it is pass interference. If you are a defensive player and there’s a likelihood of getting pass interference called on you, you naturally are going to play off the receiver a bit more. This gives the quarterbacks more room to complete passes.

If you look at career passer rating you’ll note that 19 of the top 30 are currently active in the league. Four of the remaining 11 retired last year (Bulger, Garcia, Culpepper, and Warner). Clearly passing is easier in this day and age. Interesting fact, Shaun Hill, who has been a back-up his entire career has a better rating than Elway, Aikman, and the aforementioned Staubach. Clearly it is a game where it is easier to get TDs, avoid interceptions, and complete more passes for a longer average. If it is easier to pass in today’s game, it is hard to compare Brees to players of previous eras.

As for trusting your quarterback to pass 650 times. I don’t buy it. When Peyton Manning had his best season in 2004 (121 QB Rating – the best ever), he only threw the ball 497 times. In Tom Brady’s best year (117.2 rating – highest scoring offense ever), he only threw the ball 578 times. Brady only topped 600 attempts one time – in 2002 when the team was 9-7 and some wondered if Brady was really talented at all. Peyton Manning never had 600 attempts in his career. Brees has thrown 630+ passes in 3 of the last 4 season… the exception being the champion season where he threw only 514 passes. I don’t think anyone could claim that Manning and Brady aren’t trusted to throw the ball.

Why does Drew Brees throw so much? I think it is because the games have been close or they have been playing catch-up. When the Saints flirted with going undefeated they could build up a quick lead and run the clock out. This year they’ve had to come from behind and endured many, many injuries to their running backs.

When looking at the number of passes, we should look at another player, Drew Bledsoe. His career ended early with his last full year at age 33. However, he did put up 44,000 yards and 251 TDs in that time in a less pass happy NFL. He did this mostly by passing a lot. Some make an argument for him to be in the Hall of Fame because he ranks in the top ten in a number of areas and beats out a number of current Hall of Famers. However, I think this article correctly points out that high volume doesn’t mean high efficiency.

It appears that Drew Brees is a combination of volume and efficiency, but I would caution against using numbers such as yards and TDs that tend to skew towards volume.

Is Brees a Hall of Famer?

Let’s get back to Kosmo’s original question. I think it might be closer than he thinks. Let’s review the numbers that Kosmo has for Brees, which I believe are fair, and compare them to others in his class:

Notes on the projected stats:

• Philip Rivers – He is three years younger than Brees. Since we added 5 years to Brees, I added 8 for Rivers. Rivers has averaged 27.2 TDs for every 16 games he’s played, but in the last three years (when he stepped up his game) he’s averaged 30.6. I projected 28 on average for the next 8 years to account for some drop-off. Similarly Rivers averages 3930 yards per full season in his career, but over the last three years he has been averaging 4324 yards a season. I calculated a 4100 as his 8 year average.
• Aaron Rodgers – It is extremely hard to project him because he only has a few seasons due to waiting out the Favre fiasco. However, I felt it would be short-sighted to leave him off the list. At age 27, he projects to play 10 more years to get to the age of 37 that we are predicting for all quarterbacks. With at least 28 TD in every season, I continued that for 10 years. With an average of 4131 yards over his full seasons, I added in 10 years of 4000 to account for some drop off – though he could get better before he gets worse.
• Ben Roethlisberger – While he is age 28, he won’t be adding until his counting stats until he’s 29. Thus I’m going to pretend he’s 29 and treat him like Drew Brees – 8 years until age 37. Due to some injury problems and off-field issues, he’s averaged fewer games than some of the above players. He’s still averaging 3214 a season and 20 TDs. I conservatively estimated the next 8 years to average 3000 yards and 18 TDs.

Big Ben may look out of place, but because he wins games, I don’t think we can discount him as a potential Hall of Fame candidate. He already has 2 rings and could add a third before he turns 29. I think it is worth focusing on Rivers and Rodgers who are often mentioned with Brees in the next tier after Brady/Manning debate. Though we have to project Rivers and Rodgers more than Brees (and hence have less accuracy in our predictions), it should be noted that they might have very similar careers.

If you put one of them in the Hall, you may have to put them all. Are voters likely to say that we have 5-6 Hall of Fame quarterback in the league right now? Has Brees separated himself from the rest of the pack? I’m not sure.

If we see Brees in the Hall of Fame in a few years, I wouldn’t be surprised. If he puts up the numbers that Kosmo suggests and doesn’t make it, I wouldn’t call it a travesty either.

The conference championship games are now set; the New York Jets will be visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers will be visiting the Chicago Bears. Both are #2-#6 seed match ups. Some of the games this weekend were messy. Each provided the coaches, even the winning coaches, plenty to teach this week.

In the Pittsburgh – Baltimore game, we learned you play to the whistle, as a Baltimore lineman picked up the ball and ran in for a touchdown on a fumble that no one else noticed, they were just standing around with the ball sitting on the ground. In the New England – New York game we learned that when you are going to run a fake punt, pay attention to where the ball is. In the Atlanta – Green Bay game we learned not to hurry at the end of the half with short dangerous passes. And finally, we learned in the Chicago – Seattle game, we learned that you have to run your pattern and actually catch the ball to win games. I am sure that you can see many more teaching opportunities (like do not commit stupid penalties at critical points in the game).

All four of the teams in the champion ship games have been to and won at least one Super Bowl, so no new story line there. None of these teams have matched up against each other in the Super Bowl before, so some interest there. The Steelers already have six Super Bowl Championships, the Jets are undefeated in the Super Bowl (but only have one appearance). Only one #6 seed has ever made it to the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XL, which they won. The #2 seed has made it to the Super Bowl 22 times, winning 11 and losing 11. Two #2s have met only once in the Super Bowl. Two of the teams come from large markets, the other two have storied Super Bowl history behind them.

The New York Jets beat Pittsburgh during the regular season in their only meeting. Chicago and Green Bay split their two games. The Jets beat Green Bay but lost to Chicago. Pittsburgh did not play either NFC team this year. I am sure that the pundits will have plenty of stories and angles to comment on.

The good new is that one of the New York teams made it to the Conference Championship. Why is this good news? About 95% of the talking heads predicted a possible NY-NY show down in Dallas for Super Bowl XLV. In week 2 of the season, most of those same experts called the both NY teams’ seasons over, so much for predicting 4 months and 16 games out. I guess that I get some juvenile pleasure out of seeing the experts proven wrong.

I was glad that Seattle won in the first round of the playoffs against the New Orleans Saints. I am not bashing the Saints, but there were so many people on talk shows saying that Seattle should not be in the playoffs because they did not have a winning record. I disagree. The rules as they stand today are that you have to win your division to get to the playoffs. If you don’t do that, there is the gift of 2 wild card spots for teams that played well, just not well enough to win their divisions. It was not that long ago that there were only three divisions and one wild card for each conference, now twelve teams out of the 32 get into the playoffs. My objection is the demand to change the rules in the middle (or near the end) of the season.

I still have a horse in this race, so I am pretty excited. I will be having a Super Bowl party regardless of the participants. The Super Bowl is usually a good game and there are those commercials. My friends and I usually skip the half time show, ever since Janet Jackson was exposed in front of my young children. American style football has produced great entertainment for years, with the Super Bowl being there grand finale each year. I do no expect to be disappointed this year.

John Scherer could hear the impact of the collision from his seat on the bench.  He knew in an instant that Carson Malone would not return to the game.

“Scherer!” snapped head coach Art Saunders.  But there was no need to bark at him – John had already grabbed a football and was warming up.

When Carson Malone was carried off the field, the crowd grew silent.  The undefeated Tigers were assured of a bowl berth – but a win against the Dragons had the potential of punching their ticket to the national championship game.

The offense that was centered around the golden arm of Carson Malone had sputtered for much of the day, and the Tigers were clinging to a tenuous 17-16 lead against the Dragons.  The Dragons defense was stout against the run, and the only way to beat them was through the arm.  Could the spaghetti-armed Scherer get the ball downfield consistently?  In four years on the team, he had only gotten into a handful of games during garbage time and had done little to impress the coaching staff.

The afternoon sun had begun to descend into the horizon beyond Buck Miller stadium when Scherer broke from the huddle and settled in behind the center.  A moment later, the ball had been snapped and Scherer dropped back into the pocket.  He quickly spotted an open receiver and delivered a quick, tight spiral in the direction of Quentin Snow.  An instant later, he saw a flash of green as Dragons cornerback Carlton Jacobs jumped the route and snatched the ball before it reached Snow.  The All-American defensive back was past Scherer in a second and took the ball to the house without being touched.  The PAT made the score 23-17 in favor of the Dragons.

Quentin Snow returned the ensuing kickoff to the 38 yard line.  John Scherer settled the butterflies in his stomach and summoned the fortitude necessary to lead his team to victory.  A quick toss to Snow gave the Tigers a first down just shy of midfield.  Scherer hit his tight end over the middle for six yards.  A screen pass netted another ten yards.  Quentin Snow slipped past his defender and took the ball to the twenty one yard line.  After a sack, Scherer settled back in and hit tight end Rudolph Mauser at the ten.  A quick strike to Snow in the end zone capped off the scoring drive.

Adrenaline surged though Scherer’s veins as he grabbed some Gatorade and talked to the coaches on the phone.  Man, he had rocked on that drive – six completions in six attempts.  He hadn’t executed a drive that well since middle school.

The quick strike had demoralized the Dragons.  The Tigers defense forced a  three-and-out.  This time, Quentin Snow settled under the punt and called for a fair catch at the thirty yard line.  With a 24-23 lead, the Tigers simply needed to sustain a drive and let the clock run out.

Scherer found Mauser open downfield and the big tight end rumbled toward midfield.  It was a critical first down for the Tigers.  One more first down, and the game would be over.  Coach Saunders was conservative on the next two plays, handing the ball off to tailback Lawrence McGee.  Mac gain four yards on first down, but was thrown back for a two yard loss on second down, as half the Dragons defense converged on him in the backfield.

The ball was at the Tigers 48 yard line.  It was third down, with a long eight yards needed to make the first down and put the game out of reach.  A failure to execute on this play would force the Tigers to punt the ball back to the Dragons.

Scherer took the snap from center and quickly progressed through his reads.  Quentin Snow was double teamed.  Mauser was being covered effectively by a linebacker.  Tailback Lawrence McGee was open in the flat, and Scherer quickly delivered the ball.  McGee stumbled as he approached the ball.  The throw was a bit high, and McGee was only able to get his fingertips on the ball – tipping it into the air.

John Scherer groaned as he saw a flash of green near the ball.  Once again, Carlton Jacobs was in the middle of the play.  Jacobs gathered the ball at the Dragons forty yard line and set sail for pay dirt, sixty yards away.

Quentin Snow was one of the few players in the league who had better speed than Jacobs.  By the time they reach the twenty yard line, they were abreast of each other.  Jacobs made a quick fake, and Snow sailed past him and was out of position.  A moment later, Jacobs raised the ball in celebration as he cruised toward the end zone.

At the last moment, a hand slapped the ball away.  Jacobs quickly tracked the ball down and attempted to corral it … but it eluded his grasp and exited the back of the end zone.

As the official made the signal for a touchback – awarding the ball back to the Tigers at the twenty yard line – John Scherer sat in the end zone catching his breath.

Martin Kelly starts off  a month of guest fiction stories.  If you want your short story to be featured, send me an email at kosmo@observingcasually.com

There is nothing quite as pleasant as a cool bright fall day in the heartland of America. Make it a Saturday in a university town, and it gets even better. The band is playing, the people are gathering, many drinking too much, all eating too much. This was going to be a great season.

Coach Grendle had finally put together the best team in the league. Nine returning seniors, the two best freshmen in the state, a Heisman candidate at both running back Walter Sumpter and quarterback Jackie Shamacker and award candidates all over the defense. This was one last warm up before league play. The first two games had been against strong teams, one from the west coast and one from the deep south. Both wins were solid; 38-28 and 24-10. Today they faced the tech school from across the state. It was an annual gimme game that pleased the regents. It was nice to play at home this year, their stadium was small and old with no heating in the locker room, not like the newly renovated one hundred and ninety million dollar stadium for today’s game.

As each team lined up for the opening kickoff, Coach Grendle scanned the field. The Tech players looked so young and small. He spotted Coach Smackly on the far side line and gave him a grim look and a nod. Coach Smackly smiled and waved. This would be the only televised game for Tech, they were happy to be here even if they were thirty two point underdogs.

The kick off was a beautiful high arch. Wilson caught the ball and plowed straight ahead. It took four tech players to finally pull him down. Grendle’s proud offence jogged onto the field. Sumpter to the left for 14 yards followed by a quick slant from Shamacker to Wilson for 14 more, just as the planned. Grendle was taking notes, thing that were not quite perfect and need to be for league play. It was the third play that changed the world.

Sumpter took off straight up the middle. He had several of the big guys escorting him up the field. Five yards, then ten, before the Tech Safety caught him. The tackle was clean and should have been uneventful, except for the presence of the guard and center. A combined 500 pounds landed on Sumpter’s leg. Coach Grendle knew the leg was broken before the pile was untangled. There was a long delay as Sumpter was carried off of the field on a golf cart.

Grendle had worked through disasters like this in the past. He had five more running backs ready to go. Jackson was good, not as fast and not as strong as Sumpter, but still high quality. After a long break, the defense can usually get caught flat footed. Grendle signaled for a deep pass.

Shamacker dropped back in a smooth motion. Wilson was breaking free, but then another mistake. McMiller, the left guard stepped backward and stepped on Shamacker’s foot. Off balance McMiller and the Tech linebacker fell on Shamacker. His pass fluttered in a sickening arch directly to the Tech Safety who was guarding the Jackson as he left the backfield. There was no one between him and the end zone. Touchdown Tech, and another golf cart for the home team.

Coach Grendle saw many things in those few moments. This game they could still win, but the rest of the season was over. He would have to talk to Smackly after the game. Smackly was good friends with the retiring coach at A&I. Another losing season and the alumni will be calling for his head.

Johnny went with a LOT of upsets last week and that was a mixed bag. Still a good start for the Goodman.

Straight up –11-4
Against the Spread – 9-6

College

South Florida @ Florida (-18.5) Gators have to bounce back this week after poor showing in the opener. FLA – 35- South Fla – 10

Georgia Tech (-9.5) @ Kansas – Wow Kansas looked HORRRRIBLE. GT-28- KU -7

Georgia @ South Carolina (-3.5) Early SEC Matchup…gimmie the ol ball coach. SC- 21- GA -17

Idaho @ Nebraska (-25.5) – Wake up call for Huskers before they head to Washington next week. Nebs – 35- Idaho – 21

Florida State @ Oklahoma (-8.5) – Sooners were sleepwalking last week waiting for this game. OU – 42 – FLA St – 28

Iowa State @ Iowa (-14.5) – The Battle of the cornbelt….Gimmie Herky!. IA- 28- ISU – 10

Michigan @ Notre Dame (-4.5) – might be the most interesting game of the day. MICH – 45- ND- 41

Miami (FL) @ Ohio State (-10.5) – Too tough at the horseshoe – Bunkeyes 24- MI – 21

Penn State @ Alabama (-13.5) – Roll Tide! Bama 31- Penn St – 14

Oregon (-8.5) @ Tennessee – They won’t score 70 this week but it will be enough – Ducks – 35- Tennessee – 20

NFL

Vikings @ Saints (-5.5) – Just like last year, Who Dat!?!?!? Saints 30- Vikings – 17

Oakland @ Tennessee (-6.5) Titans are way better dan da raiders….Titans 28- Raiders 10

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh – Steelers Defense wins this one. Pitt – 17- Atlanta 14

Baltimore @ NY Jets (-3.5) Revis Island won’t matter against the much improved Ravens attack. Balt – 21 Jets 14

On Sunday, I announced the intention to form a worldwide network of local reporters.  I neglected to mention a few things in the original article.  The first is that reporters are free to decline any opportunity for any reason.  The second is that I will attempt to suggest a few relevant questions whenever I give an assignment.  These are intended to be thought starters – you are not forced to answer these questions.  Drop me a line at kosmo@ObservingCasually.com if you have any questions.

Martin Kelly tried his hand at short story writing with The Bomber Pilot.  I like it – give it a read.

My Rockies swept the division-leading Padres over the weekend and nabbed a win against the Reds on Monday.  They are now just 4 1/2 games back in the NL West, thanks to an 11-4 record over the past 15 games.  The Padres have been free-falling as of late, and the Rockies might find themselves battling the Giants (whom they trail by 3 1/2 games) down the stretch.

Carlos Gonzalez has 10 hits in 19 at bats during the 4 games, boosting his league leading batting average to .340.  He trails NL home run leader Albert  Pujols by 4 homers and RBI leader Joey Votto by just a single RBI.  A hot stretch by CarGo would give him a legitimate shot at becoming the first NL player to win the triple crown since Ducky Medwick in 1937.  That year, Medwick paced the senior circuit with a .374 batting average, 31 homers, and 154 RBI.  If Gonzalez does win the triple crown, many people will point to his huge home/road splits.  However, as has been point out several times in the past, Coors Field boosts a typical player’s OPS by about 120 points.  The 450+ point differential enjoyed by CarGo must be due to some non-physical factors.

Today is the day that CarGo’s teammate Troy Tulowitzki will officially become one of his closest pursuers for the batting title.  Due to injury, Tulo falls just short of the threshold for plate appearances required to qualify for the batting title.  After yesterday’s game, Tulo had 424 plate appearances and the required number of PAs was 424.7.  4 plate appearances in today’s game will make him an official qualifier.

Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez finally notched his 18th win on Monday, in his 6th attempt.  After roaring out of the gates to a 14-1 record by the end of June, Ubaldo has run into a bit of a rough stretch, going 3-5 with a 3.98 ERA in the second half.  It hasn’t all been his fault, though.  he has lost the opportunity to win several games because of offensive struggles or bullpen woes.  In the 5 games prior to Monday, Ubaldo was 0-4 with a very good 3.00 ERA.  On the other hand, the offense has taken him off the hook in some games where he hasn’t been at his best (such as yesterday, when he gave up 4 early runs), so I suppose it all balances out in the end.

In NFL news, the Arizona Cardinals parted ways with quarterback Matt Leinart.  The Cardinals expected Leinart to be a cornerstone for them to build around – but in reality, he simply delayed their success by keeping the ball away from Kurt Warner.  Warner retired after last season, meaning that the Cardinals head into the season without their top two quarterbacks from last season.  Derek Anderson will be the starter and will be backed up by rookie Max Hall.

Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis finally ended his holdout with the Jets.  I don’t begrudge professional athletes their money (are they overpaid?), but I despise holdouts.  A contract should be respected as a legally binding agreement.  So what if you outperform the contract – you agreed to a salary and should stick to it.  If you think you’re going to outperform your contract, just sign a one year deal with a tiny signing bonus in anticipation of cashing in with the next deal.  Interestingly, there’s a posion pill in the contract.  Id Revis holds out in the next few years, the 4 year deal becomes a 7 year deal – with the final 3 years at low salaries.  Sure, you might say that a player could still hold out anyway, but this posion pill gives the team considerably more leverage, as the player cannot negotiate with any other team while they are under contract.

Nationals Nation (village?) suffered a huge setback when it was announced that top prospect Stephen Strasburg would need to undergo Tommy John surgery.  The surgery, named for the former pitcher whose career it saved, involves having an elbow ligament replaced with a tendon harvested from elsewhere in the body.  There’s a roughly 90% chance of success, and rehabilitation generally takes a year.  This means that Strasburg will likely be aiming for a return on the opening day of the 2012 season.

Interestingly, some players actually throw a bit harder after the surgery (for a few years) than they did previously – so Strasburg’s fastball might have a bit more kick when he returns.  (Some nut job parents have approached doctors requesting that the surgery be performed on their healthy sons, simply to get this benefit).  While this is obviously a setback for Strasburg, I’m confident that he’ll return as strong as ever in time for the 2012 season.  MLBDepthChart.com has put together a Tommy John Tracker that will track the progress of those slated for the operation.

If you’re in a “keeper” fantasy league and Strasburg’s owner drops him, I’d suggest snapping him up for the long haul.  Similarly, if you can make a trade for pennies on the dollar, go for it.

My Rockies have been alternating hot and cold streaks.  They faced off against the Phillies on Thursday.  A win would have allowed them to climb within 4 ½ games of Philadelphia in the wild card race.  The Rockies got out to an early 7-3 lead, but ended up losing the game 12-11, slipping to 6 ½ games out of the wild card race.

At this point, there seems to be little hope of catching the Phillies in the wild card – but I’m not convinced that the Rockies are out of the division race.  We’re 7 ½ games behind the front-running Padres – but the Padres have been in a free-fall recently, losing seven straight games.  The Rockies began a 3 games series against the Padres on Friday night (after this article was written) – and a sweep would pull the Rockies to within 4 ½ games on the division lead.  A Padres sweep would likely close the curtain on the Rockies’ playoff chances.

If you haven’t been paying attention to Carlos Gonzalez, this would be a good time to start.  CarGo launched his 31^st homer (“car bomb”) on Thursday night.  He leads the National League in batting average (.332) and slugging percentage (.610) and is 5^th in homers.  It’s possible that a hot September could push CarGo to the lead in homers and RBI and allow him to be the first NL triple crown winner since Ducky Medwick.

CarGo has dramatic home/road split (.391 with 24 homers at home vs. .275 with 7 homers on the road) but you can’t just point to Coors Field as the source of his numbers.  Overall, Coors has tended to add about 120 OPS points to a player’s numbers – CarGo’s 2010 differential is nearly 500 points.  I hypothesize that a large mental factor comes into player that allow some players to amplify the effects of their home park and other players to consistently underperform expectations (such as Ryan Howard of the Phillies, who has roughly even career home/road splits despite playing in a hitter’s paradise).  Whatever the reason, a player who can be absolutely dominant in half the games provides considerable value to a team.

Gonzalez’s teammate Troy Tulowitzki sports a .319 batting average, but you won’t see him listed among the league leaders.  That’s because an earlier  injury cost him playing time and is causing Tulo to fall just short of the threshold to qualify for the batting title (3.1 plate appearances for each game his team has played).  Tulo is currently 8 plate appearances short, so expect him to pop up on the list soon.

You might wonder what would happen if a player had a much higher batting average than anyone else in the league, but fell just short of the threshold – would he be denied the batting title?  Nope.  In these cases, “empty” at bats are added to a player’s totals to determine if he is the champion.  For example, Tulowitzki has 114 hits in 357 at bats, for a .319 batting average.  If the season ended at this point, we’d add 8 at bats (and no hits) and recalculate – 114 hits in 365 at bats, for a .312 batting average.  If this was the highest batting average in the league, Tulo would be the batting champion.  If someone else had a .313 batting average, he wouldn’t be the champion.  In either case, he would still be credited with his actual .319 batting average.

The Iowa State Cyclones kicked off the football season on Thursday night against Northern Illinois.  The Cyclones looked good at some point and bad in others.  It was a definite must-win game for a team facing the schedule from hell.  We face road games at Iowa, Texas, and Oklahoma – and face Utah in one of our pre-seasons games.  It’s possible that the team would be better than last year’s 7-6 squad, but emerge with a worse record.

And in my own backyard, the University of Iowa (in-state rivals to my alma mater) locked up head football coach Kirk Ferentz through the year 2020.  His base salary starts at $3,675,000 and he get a longevity bonus that starts at $325,000 and increases each year.  I think Ferentz is a great coach, but this makes no sense to me.  These sorts of deals just give a false sense of security to the fans of the team.  The coach can still bolt for a better job at any time.  The only thing that it really does is make it impossible to fire a coach if things head south – because the school is on the hook for the entire value of the contract.  Hopefully Ferentz will still be around in 2020 and this will be an academic issue.