The SoapBoxers

Two young pitchers signed big deals last year. The Nationals signed highly touted Stephen Strasburg to a deal that will pay $15.1 million between 2009 and 2012. The Reds signed Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman to a six year deal worth at least $30.25 million (if Chapman is arbitration-eligible after the 2012 or 2013 seasons, he can convert subsequent salary amounts into bonus and go through arbitration – a great deal for him).

The Reds are seriously considering bring Chapman to Cincinnati with them to start the season (although it has become increasingly likely that Chappy will also start the season in the minors). The Nationals are sending Strasburg to AA Harrisburg to start the season (not even AAA, but AA!). Does this mean that Chapman is better than Strasburg?

First of all, why is Strasburg being sent to AA instead of AAA? One reason is that Harrisburg’s average April temperatures (average high 61; average low 41) are a bit higher than those of Syracuse (high 56, low 35). Low temperatures can contribute to injuries.

The bigger question you may be asking is this – why send Strasburg to the minor leagues at all? Why not have him start the season with the Nationals?

As with many things in life, the short answer is easy: money.

Baseball players become eligible for free agency when they have accumulated 6.00 or more years of Major League service with a team. This is based on the number of days on the major league roster (or disabled list). You can accumulate six years of service in a six years span, or you can bounce up and down for twenty years and never reach this threshold.

There is one wrinkle to this – if you send a player to the minor for less than 20 days, he still gets credit for the entire season. Send him to the minors for 21 days, and he gets credit only for his actual time served.

If you aren’t grasping the significance yet, it’s this: if you can keep a guy’s service time at 5.9 years instead of 6.0 years, you delay his free agency by a year – saving quite a bit of money on the 7th year.

The point of having Strasburg start the season in the minors, then, is to delay his free agency eligibility until after the 2016 season.

A smaller issue is whether the Nationals can delay Strasburg’s arbitration eligibility. All players are eligible for binding salary arbitration after they have 3.00 or more years of service. Additionally, amongst players with more than 2 but less than 3 years of service, the top 17% (in terms of service time) are also eligible for arbitration. These players are referred to as “Super Twos”. The cutoff for Super Twos has historically been between 2 years, 128 days and 2 years, 140 days (but it’s a moving target, since it’s based on the current year’s group of players). In recent years, many teams attempt to game the system by giving a player slightly less than 128 days of service their rookie year, in an effort to have them fall short of Super Two status. If the Nationals can manage to do this, this would make Strasburg arbitration eligible after the 2013 season instead of after the 2012 season.

So, what does this all mean for Strasburg’s salary?

Note: Strasburg also got a $7.5 million signing bonus.

• 2010: $2M (per contract)
• 2011: $2.5M (per contract)
• 2012: $3M (per contract)
• 2013: If a Super Two, salary determined by arbitration. If not, the team can impose a salary (must be at least 80% of the previous year’s salary).
• 2014: Salary determined by arbitration
• 2015: Salary determined by arbitration
• 2016: If Strasburg has six years of service, he becomes a free agent following the 2015 season. If he has less than six years of service, his salary is determined by arbitration.

At any point in this path, Strasburg and the Nationals can sign a new contract that would remove him from the arbitration process. This is quite likely, since arbitration can be quite adversarial and tends to hurt some feelings. However, if Strasburg’s arbitration year is pushed back to 2014 and his free agency pushed back until after the 2016 season, these years are worth less money, and this will be reflected in any long term contract offered by the Nationals.

With Johnny Goodman still on leave for medical reasons, Kosmo is jumping in with another sports column.  We miss your articles, Johnny – get well sooon.

A Strong Brees

We’re on the cusp of another Super Bowl.  On one side of the field, we’ll have the Indianapolis Colts, led by Peyton Manning.  Manning is the son of Pro Bowl quarterback, the brother of another Pro Bowl quarterback, and he himself is a Pro Bowl quarterback, Super Bowl Champion, NFL MVP, and #1 overall pick in the NFL draft.  From day one, he has been the unquestioned leader of the Colts.

On the other hand, we have Drew Brees of the Saints.  The Saints themselves are a feel-good story – some good fortune for a city that was devastated by hurricane Katrina in 2005.  When Brees was drafted, the San Diego Chargers actually had the #1 pick that would have allowed them to pick up Michael Vick.  They traded that pick to Atlanta for the #5 overall pick (which they used to draft LaDainian Tomlinson) and a third round pick.  Having not gotten Vick at #1, they nabbed Brees in the second round.

Unlike Manning, Brees wasn’t given the keys to the kingdom.  His first few years in the league were up and down (eh, OK, so mostly he sucked), and the Chargers felt the need to draft his replacement in 2004.  They wanted Eli Manning, but he didn’t want to sign with them.  So they drafted Manning and traded him to the New York Giants for Philip Rivers (who had been picked #4 overall) on draft day.  Rivers would have been been giving a strong chance to unsteat Brees for the starter’s job – except that he held out nearly all of training camp.

Brees promptly turned his career around and had his finest season in 2004, throwing 27 touchdowns with just 7 interceptions.  After going to the Saints as a free agent after the 2005 season, Brees had TD totals of 26, 28, 34, and 34.  He has topped 4300 yards all four seasons and cracked the 5000 barrier in 2008.

For his career, Brees now has 202 TDs against 110 interceptions, 30000 career passing yards, and a QB rating of 91.9.  Yes, the QB who was nearly thrown to the curb by the Chargers is now on pace for the Hall of Fame.

No League for Old Men

In a move that wasn’t particularly surprising Cardinals QB Kurt Warner announced his retirement.  Ther ultimate feel good story, Warner arose (like a Phoenix) many times during his career.  First, he clawed his way up from stocking shelves at a Hy Vee grocery store (@ $5.50 per hour) to an NFL job.  Then, after injuries caused him to lose his starting job, he regained a starting job with the Cardinals and led the formerly hapless franchise to its first Super Bowl – and nearly won it. 

All told, Warner went to three Super Bowls – winning one and narrowly losing the other two.  He has the record for most career passing yards Super Bowls (1156) due to the fact that he has the highest, second highest, and third highest passing totals in Super Bowl history.  Consider for a moment how statistically unlikely that is to occur …

Off the field, Warner does everything the right way – from the big things like adopting his children to smaller things like picking up the check for random people every time his family goes out to eat.  You’ll be missed, K-Dub (unless you pull a Favre).  (Read my recent article about Kurt Warner, “High Flying Cardinals”)

When my Minnesota Vikings played Brett Favre’s bizarre waiting game last summer and signed him to be their quarterback, I was fed up.  Not only have I never been a fan of Favre’s, but it seemed to me that Favre delayed his decision simply to avoid summer camp.  There’s a four letter word for that – L-A-Z-Y.

I made the somewhat irrational decision to boycott the Vikings until Favre was n longer with the team.  Lots of people questioned this, especially when the Vikings were perched on the brink of the Super Bowl.  I felt validated when Favre threw away another Super Bowl opportunity with yet another poor decision (flashback to the 2008 NFC Championship game, Brett?).  Hopefully Favre will retire again and stay retired.

Double Standard

Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman recently signed a contract with the Cincinnati Reds (is anyone else struck by the irony of a player fleeing a communist nation and signing with the REDS?  No?  Just me?  OK, thought I’d ask).  The pitcher’s deal will pay him $30.25 million over 6 years.  Although those in the baseball fandom were very much aware of the deal, it didn’t seem to raise the ire of fans like Stephen Strasburg’s 4 year, $15.5 million deal (see articles “Defense of Scott Boras” and “The Righty and the Lefty”).  (Yes, in theory, Strasburg could earn more money over the six year span if he performs well and gets decent arbitration awards for years 5 and 6 – but if they both flop, Chapman could come out $15 million ahead).

Let’s compare the two players.  Strasburg is five months younger than Chapman.  Strasburg is also the more highly ranked prospect.  So, why, then, is it a sign of the apocolyse for him to get $15.5 million while Chapman’s contract didn’t stir such strong emotions.

Chapman wasn’t subject to the draft, and thus had complete control over his future – unlike players in the US and Canada, who are only allowed to negotiate with the team that drafted them.  My good friend Fulton Christoper opined that this is a good reason to implement a worldwide draft.

Hamlin Heating Up the Ice

US luger Erin Hamlin (@ErinHamlin on Twitter), Kosmo’s favorite winter Olympian, racked up the following finishes in the World Cup season (singles events)

• November 20/21 – Calgary, Canada – 7th
• November 28/29 – Innsbruck, Austria – 9th
• December 5/6 – Altenberg, Germany – 5th
• December 12/13 – Lillehammer, Norway – 3rd
•  January 2/3 – Königssee, Germany – 5th
• January 9/10 – Winterberg, Germany – 3rd
• January 16/17- Oberhof, Germany – 8th
• January 30/31 – Cesana, Italy – 3rd

That’s good for an overall finish of 4th place in the standings, and Hamlin finished very strong, with  three podium (top 3) finishes in the last 5 events.  You heard it here first – Hamlin is picking up steam and is going to nab the luge gold in Vancouver.  Watch your rear view mirror, Tatjana.

And in an administrative note, we have a new link partner – Aibal.com.  Aibal is another non-niche blog.  Drop by and visit.

Monday was a national holiday of sorts. It was the signing deadline for most of the players selected in this June’s Major League draft. College seniors (as well as Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers, who skipped their senior seasons to play in the independent leagues) were not bound by this deadline, but everyone else was.

My focus on this glorious day was on two pitchers – a righty and a lefty. The righty was top overall pick Stephen Strasburg and the lefty was Tyler Matzek, the #11 overall pick.

Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg has been the subject of much media attention over the last year or so. He has been an absurdly dominant college pitcher, throwing a fastball clocked as high as 103 mph. Superlatives were hurled at him by the bushel. Was he the best college pitcher ever? Surely the best in a decade? Many scouts deemed him to be the best player they had ever seen. To make things even sweeter, Strasburg’s coach at San Diego State – Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn – had made a concerted effort to avoid heaping abuse on Strasburg by avoiding monstrously high pitch counts in games. Many top college pitchers are overused by coaches eager to pad their own resumes with wins, at the expense of the health of their pitchers.

After the Washington National signed him, they bumped into the sticky subject of money. There were initial indications that Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras, was looking for a deal around $50 million! Many thought that it was a slam dunk that he would hold out for $30 million.

There was a strong possibility that the Nationals would not be able to sign Strasburg, and he would re-enter the draft next year. The Nationals would be compensated with the #2 pick in the 2010 draft (an “n+1” formula is used to compensate teams that are unable to sign picks in the first two rounds, so the #1 overall pick in 2009 would yield a #2 in 2010). The Nationals are also likely to hold the #1 pick in next year’s draft by “virtue” of having the worst record this year. However, they would be unable to draft Strasburg a second time without his consent.

So, what happened? Negotiating went deep into the night, and the sides emerged with a deal that will pay Strasburg a reported $15.067 million and keep him under control of the Nationals for four seasons – at which point he will go into the arbitration system. This sounds like a ton of money (and it is) but I score this as a win for the Nationals. If they can lose enough games to land the #1 pick next year, they could add catcher Bryce Harper to the mix, and have a couple of very nice players for the long haul.

For more on Stephen Strasburg, read my fake interview from a few months ago.

Tyler Matzek

Rockies draftee Tyler Matzek garned a bit less attention than Strasburg. The Matzek selection was noteworthy for Rockies Nation, however. The small market Rockies have typically drafted players who were considered to be “signable” (a baseball euphemism for “cheap”) while eschewing players whose upsides were perceived to be higher.

Matzek, however, did not fit this description. Widely considered to be one of the top pitchers in the draft, high schooler Matzek slid down to #11 due to signability concerns (i.e. he wanted a lot of money), where the Rockies picked him. This move was the complete opposite of how the Rockies have historically drafted. Some observers felt that this was a strategic move by the Rockies. The thought was that they really didn’t want to pony up the money to pay a top pick this year, and would prefer to just take the compensatory pick next year.

For his part, Matzek talked a good game, talking about the opportunity to pitch and play first base for the University of Oregon.

Matzek arrived in Eugene, Oregon on Sunday night, which was not a good sign. However, when reports surfaced that Matzek had not attended Monday classes at the University of Oregon, my spirits soared. This was an indication that he might indeed sign with the Rockies.

In the end, Matzek left behind the world of co-eds and spring break for a reported $3.9 million bonus.

If you wonder what my initial response to the draft was, read the draftermath from June.

OK, 3 rounds (plus sandwich) in the books.

The draft started very predictably with the National signing San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg, easily the best player in the draft.  The Pittsburgh Pirates made the first “reach” on the draft, taking Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez at #4, far above his projected slot.  This was apparently a case of the Pirates choosing a signable player (there was reportedly an agreement in place before the draft) rather than a player with a high ceiling.  Pirates Nation (if such a term is still accurate) probably let loose a collection groan with this pick.  This is one of the reasons why I wish baseball teams could trade picks.  The Pirates could have easily traded down 10-20 spots and still been able to nab Sanchez.

A few guys slipped more than I expected

Aaron Crow was the first round pick of the Nationals last year (#10) overall and could not agree to a deal with Washington.  He spent a season with the independent Forth Worth Cats and went back into the draft this year.  Some folks had his stock dropping, but I really expected someone to nab him in the top 5.  Instead, he dropped to #12, where he was signed by Kansas City.  This is the second time the Royals have signed a former Cat, as Luke Hochevar followed the same path after he was drafted #6 overall by the Dodgers in 2005 (he was drafted #1 overall by the Royals in 2006).  Contrast this style with the Pirates choosing a lower ceiling player to save money.

A couple other guys were drafted later than I expected due to injury concerns  Pitcher Kyle Gibson of Missouri seemed like a lock for the top 10 before being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his pitching arm.  He dropped to the Twins at #22.  If the Twins can get a good comfort level by the August 15 signing deadline, they could end up with a very good pitcher with this pick.

Perhaps the most intriguing drop was Tanner Scheppers.  Scheppers was a lock for the top 10 last year out of Fresno State before suffering an injury to his rotator cuff and labrum.  He dropped to #48 last year, and the Pirates were unable to sign him.  To be fair to both sides, the negotiations had a risk/reward aspect related to the injury.  This year he was pitching for the independent St. Paul Saints and appears to be fully healed from the injury.  However, some doubts apparently still exist, as Scheppers dropped to the Texas Rangers at #44.  

Scheppers would have actually made a lot of sense at the tail end of the first round.  He is the equivalent of a college senior, and teams would not have been subject to the August 15 deadline to sign him.  They could have waited until right before the 2010 draft to make a really serious offer.  If he was recovered, sign him.  If not, don’t sign him.  Teams who can’t sign a first or second round pick receive a pick one spot lower in next year’s draft (if you can’t sign the #1 overall pick, you’d get the #2 pick in 2010).  Worst case scenario for a team at the tail end of the first round would be not signing Scheppers and getting an equivalent pick in 2010.  The Rangers actually took more of  a risk.  The sandwich picks are not protected.  If they don’t sign Scheppers, they do not get any sort of replacement pick.

How did my Rockies do?  I’m pretty happy.  The Rockies has 3 picks in the top 34.  At #11, I really wish we would have grabbed Aaron Crow.  Instead, we picked flamethrowing high school lefty Tyler Matzek, who already has a fastball in the mid to high 90s.  Matzek has really good upside potential.  The big knock on his was money, as he reportedly wants about $7 million to sign.  At #32 I was hoping we’d go after Scheppers, but took Sacramento State outfielder Tim Wheeler instead.  Wheeler has good speed, and question marks about his power and his ability to stay in center field.  If he can stay in center and show good power, this could be a very nice pick.  At #34, we went for another lefty pitcher with good power, Rex Brothers out of Lipscomb University.  Brothers throws in the high 90s.

We’re taking a break from our typical friday fiction to do a roundup of the world of baseball.

Big Unit, big milestone

Randy Johnson expected to pitch for the Giants in pursuit of his 300th win on Wednesday night.  Unfortunately, mother nature had a different idea, and the game was rained out.  Thursday was also a wet day, but Johnson took the mound in the first game of a double header.  The weather and the early start time resulted in a much smaller crowd than you would expect for a historic game.  Johnson did not disappoint the crowd (in Washington vs. the Nationals).  He pitched six innings and allowed just two hits, two walks, and one unearned run.  The bullpen closed the door on the Gnats.  Nice job, Randy.

Draft

MLB’s amateur draft will commence on Tuesday and finish up on Wednesday.  It will be televised on the MLB Network, which I unfortunately do not get through my cable provider.  Mediacom, if you’re reading this, PLEASE add the MLB network.

Stephen Strasburg is far and away the top prospect in the draft.  Unless the Nationals balk at the demands of Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras, he will be taken with the #1 pick.  Sports Weekly had an interesting compilation of the thirteen pitchers who have been taken with the #1 pick in the draft since the draft began in 1965.  1981 #1 overall pick Mike Moore has the most career wins in the group, with 161 (as well as 176 losses).  1989 top pick Andy Benes is the most game over .500 for his career (+16).  A number of the pitchers have had careers derailed by injury (Ben McDonald) or being rushed to the big leagues (18 year old David Clyde skipped the minors after being drafted by the Rangers).

I like Strasburg, but pitchers are inherently risky.

The #2 prospect is University of North Carolina’s Dustin Ackley.  Ackely will likely play center field as a pro, but has played first base this year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery last year.

Pitchers Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers were drafted last year but failed to sign.  Crow could not reach a deal with the Nationals.  Scheppers was considered to be a high first round talent last year before an injury put some question marks on his resume, causing him to fall to the second round.  Both are likely to go in the top ten picks.

For more on the draft, check out John Sickel’s MinorLeagueBall.com and  Andy Seiler’s MLB Bonus Baby.  John’s blog focuses on the minor leagues, but gives the draft a decent amount of coverage.  Andy’s blog is relatively new, but very informative.  Andy had previously posted a lot of draft related stuff on MinorLeagueBall before taking the plunge and starting his own blog.  Very impressive so far.

If you have an eye on the 2010 draft, check out  Summer Ball – a site devoted to the college summer leagues.  The college players play in summer league that use wooden bats – to prove their mettle with the wood (pun intended).

Crumbs

Manny Ramirez has gotten a lot of All Star votes, in spite of the fact that he is serving a suspension for using performance enhancing dugs.  Come on folks, don’t vote for Manny this year.

The Pirates traded Nate McClouth to the Braves.  I’m sorry, Pirates fans.  I feel your pain.

The Braves released future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine just as he was rounding into form after an injury.  This makes their free agent signing of Glavine even more moronic.  The Braves got one season out of Glavine (2-4, 5.54 ERA in 61 1/3 innings).  Few people expected such a lackluster return for their investment, but many pointed out the signs of decline (particularly in Glavine’s peripheral stats) and questioned the wisdom of signing a player who would be 42 years old on opening day of the 2008 seasons.  Most painful is the price the Braves paid.  They forfeited their 2008 #1 draft pick to their hated rivals, the Mets.  The Mets also received a sandwich pick as compensation (this pick didn’t come from the Braves, it was created out of thin air).  The Mets drafted Ike Davis with the Braves pick (#18 overall) and Bradley Holt with the sandwich (#33 overall).

The Midwest League’s Cedar Rapids Kernels have a promotion that could result in a fan winning one million dollars on June 8!  Before you get too excited – a Kernels pitcher (or group of pitchers) much throw a perfect game.  The odds of a perfect game are always tiny, but especially in low A.  Even if the pitcher does his job, it’s quite likely that the fielders will commit an error.

This article is completely fictional.  I have a great deal of respect for the real-life Strasburg.  Strasburg transformed himself, through hard work, from an undrafted high school player to the consensus top prospect in this year’s baseball draft.

San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg is certain to be a top selection in June’s baseball draft.  We at The Soap Boxers are big baseball fans, so we had reporter Scoop Chevelle hop on the first plane headed west to catch up with Strasburg in San Diego.  The interview got off to a bit of a rough start, as Scoop was unable to find Strasburg at the Aztec training facility or his apartment.  Finally, Scoop’s bloodhound instincts sniffed out Strasburg at the beach.  Strasburg was hesitant to interupt a leisurely day in the sun, but Scoop prevailed and Strasburg eventually agreed to an interview.

Scoop: Stephen, there have been reports that your agent, Scott Boras, is asking for a contract upwards of $50 million.  Many observers consider this to be an obscene amount of money for a kid who has never toed the mound in a professional game.  What do you have to say to those critics?

Strasburg:  Well, Scoopy,  it’s definitely a boatload of cash.  On the flip side, though, take a look at some of my newspaper clippings.  Oh, darn, I left my scrapbook in my room.  Well, anyway, there are a bunch of writers who are saying that I’m a once-in-a-decade prospect.  Last year’s #1 pick, Tim Beckham, signed for $6.15 million.  A once-in-a-decade talent is obviously worth ten times that amount.  The math is pretty simple – my fair market value is $61.5 million.  Who can blame Mr. Boras for asking for $50 million?  In my opinion, he’s being rather generous with the discount.

Scoop: Well, that’s definitely an interesting way to look at it.  The Washington Senators, er Nationals, have the top pick in the draft.  Do you expect them to select you with that pick?

Strasburg: No, certainly not.  Mr. Boras had some preliminary discussions with the team, but negotiations broke down over the non-financial terms.

Scoop: Wow, that’s incredible news.  Tell us, Stephen, what was the sticking point?

Strasburg: Well, as you know, I have always had an interest in politics.  I’m a public administration major, and always wanted to leverage my education into a spot in the US Senate.  Washington, as it turns out, is the home of the federal government.  Since the Capitol has spots for 100 senators, I thought that the Nationals could find a way to get me appointed to one of the seats.  Perhaps the vacant Minnesota seat.  They kept yammering about things like “abuse of power” and “age requirements”.  After a while, Mr. Boras and I realized that the Nationals simply weren’t going to negotiate in good faith, so we broke off the talks.

Scoop: Well, then, where might we  expect to  see you land?

Strasburg: The Pirates, Scoop.

Scoop: The Pittsburgh Pirates, Stephen?  Is that some sort of a joke?

Strasburg: Well, they wouldn’t be the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Team officials are working with the mayor to change the name of the city to Strasburg, Pennsylvania.  Clearly, this is a team that has been fighting a lot of bad luck over the last few years, and they are destined for a breakout.  Hopefully I can pitch well enough down the stretch to get them to the World Series this year.

Scoop: Yes, that would definitely be quite the achievement.  Well, Stephen, it has been great talking to you.  I’m absolutely famished.  Where’s a good place to eat around here?

Straburg: Well, there’s Tony Gwynn’s bar and grill.  They have a half pound burger – all lean meat with no bull.  They call it the Strasburger …

Like this article?  You might enjoy Scoop’s interview with Manny Ramirez from last winter.