The SoapBoxers

Take a deep breath and relax.

And in this corner, at 6'3" and 215 pounds ...

A lazy day of spring training was livened up a bit when Ubaldo Jimenez of the Indians intentionally threw at Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, clearing the benches and getting himself a five game suspension.

There has been a lot of tension between Jimenez and the Rockies this season.  The beef that Jimenez seems to have with the team is that Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez signed big extensions following the 2010 season, while the team made no move to extend Jimenez.  Why didn’t the Rockies offer Jimenez an extension?  Because they already had him under team control through 2014.

At the time he signed the deal (January 2009), these were Ubaldo’s thoughts on the subject:

That means a lot, that they’ve put a lot of trust in me, and I’m not going to let them down.

Sounds like he was pretty happy with the deal at the time, right?  Sure, he’d had a monster season in 2010 (fueled by a 15-1 start, which included a no-hitter) and perhaps rightly felt that he had outperformed the contract, but the Rockies had taken a risk by signing him to the deal before he had really proven much at the major league level.  At the time of the deal, Jimenez had a career record of 16-16 and a career ERA of 4.06.

Additionally, pitchers are more injury prone than position players, and pitchers for the Rockies are going to throw more pitches per inning than pitchers in other parks, because the park is very hitter friendly (and hits extend innings).  Considering that baseball contracts, unlike contracts in other sports, are guaranteed money, it’s risky to extend a pitcher too many years into the future, especially when he’s still under contract for several years.

Is he upset about being traded?  Seriously, how could the Rockies turn down a deal that included Drew Pomeranz and other pieces.  Pomeranz has the upside of Jimenez and is younger (cheaper).  The small market Rockies are often looking for cost efficiencies.

I like Ubaldo, but he really needs to put this in the past and move forward.

More big contracts

Actually, the Giants are paying for Matt Cain's arm.

Nah, man. I can pick up the tab for dinner. No worries, mate.

Spring training has served as a late Christmas for a some players.  Just yesterday, teams spent $350 million on players, with the Giants locking up pitcher Matt Cain for six years at a cost of $127.5 million and the Reds extended first baseman Joey Votto through the 2023 season with a ten year deal worth $225 million.  Cain’s deal has a vesting option (which turns into a team option if it doesn’t vest) that could push the deal to $141.5 million over seven years.

I’d like to point out the fact that Matt Cain’s career record is 69-73, and he has never won more than 13 games in a season.  I’d also like to point out the fact that win/loss record is a horrible stat to use when judging pitchers, and applaud the Giants for completely ignoring it in this case.  In 2007, for example, Cain went 7-16 for the Giants … but had a quite good 3.65 ERA and hit 200 innings – as a 22 year old.

Votto’s the third first basemen to notch a $200 million deal in recent months, following in the footsteps of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.  Unlike Pujols and Fielder, Votto opted to remain with the team that drafted him.  Votto still has two years left on his current deal ($9 million this year and $17 million in 2013), so the new deals kick in for the 2014 season.  He’ll be 40 years old at the end of the contract.

I think Votto’s a relatively safe risk, as first baseman are less prone to injury than other position players (they don’t run long distances to field balls, nor are they often involved in collisions with baserunners).  However, I think it would make some sense to add easily-reached vesting options to protect against severely diminished skills or career-ending injuries (although teams often have disability insurance for injuries).  Set it up so that the option vests if the player gets 200 at bats in te previous season.

The Dodgers

Not this Frank McCourt

This is the guy.

The long, drawn out saga of Frank McCourt seems to be drawing to an end.  A group that includes NBA great Magic Johnson is going to buy the Dodgers for more than $2 billion, the highest price ever for a sports franchise.  McCourt will retain some rights to the parking lots, but will not receive parking-related revenue (this was a major issue).  McCourt paid $421 million for the team in 2004, so he should reap a tidy profit (even after using some of the cash toward his divorce settlement).

Why so much money?  Television rights.  Currently, Fox pays $38 million per season for the rights to televise Dodgers games.  That deal expires after the 2013 season, and the price is going to go through the roof.  How much do the Dodgers stand to gain from TV rights?  Well, the cross-town Angels recently signed a deal that will pay the team $3 billion over the next twenty years.

I’m actually a bit disappointed to see the Dodgers messed cleaned up.  The longer it lingered, the more it helped the other teams in the Dodgers’ division – including my Rockies.

It’s September already, and baseball season is winding down (unless you’re a fan of the Cubs, in which case the season has been over for a long time).

This is always a bittersweet time of the year.  I love pennant races and the playoffs, but hate to see the season end.  As always, this has been a strange and wonderful season.  Let’s look back.

First, of course, we’ll start with my Colorado Rockies.  It’s been a disappointing season at Coors Field.  The Rockies started out 11-1 before fading out of contention in May.  Injuries played a part (particularly with the pitching staff), as did sub-par offensive performances by some players.

The biggest news of the season, of course, was the trade of Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians.  I like Ubaldo, but when you get the chance to nab Drew Pomeranz in a trade, while also picking up some other pieces, you have to make the deal.  Pomeranz is recovered from an appendectomy and will make his major league debut on Sunday against the Reds.

Troy Tulowitzki continues to make the case that he is the best all-around shortstop in the game – and one of the best players, period.  While playing gold glove caliber defense, Tulo has also contributed a .305 average with 30 homers and 103 RBI.  How impressive is that?  His closest pursuer among NL shortstops in homers and RBI is Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies.  Rollins has 14 homers and 58 RBI – 16 homers and 45 RBI behind Tulo.  And while Tulo is indeed killing the ball at Coors Field (.960 OPS), he’s also posted superb numbers on the road (.897 OPS).  Considering that the typical hitter has an OPS 31 points higher at home, Coors doesn’t seem to be inflating Tulo’s numbers much at all (especially if you believe in the existence of a Coors Hangover).

If the Rockies were in contention, it would be difficult to argue against Tulo as the MVP.

One of the most unappreciated performances in baseball is coming from another Rockie, Chris Iannetta.  Iannetta is much criticized for his poor batting average (.238), but a high number of walks elevates his OBP to a quite good .370, and he has 12 homers in just 320 at bats.  I’m sure the Rockies are going to cut ties with Chris at some point, and a team that properly utilizes him is going to get good value.

The most disappointing performance for me this year was Ian Stewart.  I’ve always liked Stewie, and he has shown good power (54 homers in 1242 career at bats) but has struggle to make consistent contact.  His batting average sank to a career low .156 this year and stands at .236 for his career – not high enough for a third baseman.  He’s been in a funk all year, and with just 122 at bats, didn’t get a chance to hit his way out of it.  I think a lot of people forget that Stewie is still just 26.  I see him as a possible reclamation project – but probably in another uniform.

OK, so what’s going out outside Denver?

Justin Verlander is kindling the argument of whether or not a pitcher can be MVP.  Personally, I’m OK with this.  While it’s true that a starting pitcher plays only once every five days, his impact on those games is far greater than the impact of any other player.  Verlander is already at 21 wins and is the main reason why the Tigers were able to push the Indians aside and claim first place in the AL Central.

Zach Greinke made news in the spring with an basketball-related injury and then got off to a slow start.  However, after posting a 5.45 ERA prior to the All Star break, he has a 2.41 ERA since.

How good are the Phillies pitchers?  Four of them have 11 or more wins and an ERA of 2.85 or better (Halladay and Lee are a combined 32-12 with a 2.48 ERA).  Conventional wisdom suggest using a three man rotation in the playoffs – but might the Phillies go four deep and have their guys 100% fresh for each start?

Remember when Albert Pujols was going to miss a couple of months with an injury and cost himself a bunch of money when he wouldn’t be able to prove that he still had his power?  I think he’s OK.

The National League has no interesting races this year.  The closest divisional race is the NL West, where the Diamondbacks hold a 6 game lead over the Giants.  Even the wild card race is a yawner, with the Braves holding a 7.5 game lead over the Cardinals.  In the AL, the Yankees and Red Sox are having their annual battle for the division title, with the Devil Rays putting together yet another strong season.  The Rangers hold a 3.5 game lead on the Angels in the best “loser stays home” race.  Angels rookie Mike Trout has hooked some media attention by making the best of his second call-up to the majors, stringing five homers on his line in just 84 at bats.  Is the 20 year old from Jersey up for good?

And finally … we’re a week away from the release of Moneyball.  I hope the movie is as good as the book (but I doubt it will be).

Iowa State wrapped up their football season with a disappointing loss against Missouri on November 20 and ended the season at 5-7.  At the beginning of the season, I figured that five wins would be a best case scenario, given the difficulty of the schedule (non-conference games against Iowa and Utah and road tilts against Texas and Oklahoma).  As it stands, we ended up with five wins, and I’m disappointed that we didn’t catch a couple of breaks that could have gotten us a couple more wins.  Mark my word, we’re going back to a bowl game next year.

Former Iowa State coach Dan McCarney, currently the defensive line coach for Urban Meyer at Florida, will be the new head coach at North Texas.  McCarney had a 56-85 record with the Cyclones, but the overall wins and losses don’t do justice to the work Mac did to build the program.  Iowa State was fresh off an 0-10-1 season when McCarney took the reigns from Jim Walden.  In Walden’s seven seasons and head coach, the Cyclones mustered a winning record just once (6-5 in 1989).  After just ten total wins in the first four seasons under McCarney, Iowa State burst onto the national scene in 2000 with a nine win season – and the first bowl appearance since 1978.  In a six year span between 2000 and 2005, the Cyclones played in five bowl games.  After a 4-8 season in 2006, McCarney was fired.  That night, I sent a short email thanking him for everything he had done for the program.  McCarney, in the process of cleaning out his office and figuring out what his next career move was, took a moment to reply.

My wife’s favorite NFL team, the St. Louis Rams, find themselves in contention for a playoff berth.  At 5-6, they are tied for first place in a mediocre NFC West.  Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford is leading the way with a successful debut season – 17 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions.  No 7-9 team has ever made the playoffs – but it  could happen this year.  In any case, the season has been a big step forward for a team that had just one win last year.  At the beginning of the season, I wondered if the Rams wouldn’t have been better off to trade star running back Steven Jackson in an effort to plug multiple holes … but it seems that the Rams have found a way to get to the next level without sacrificing their best player.

The Yankees and shortstop Derek Jeter are reportedly far apart in negotiations.  It’s an odd case.  On paper, the Yankees would seem to hold all the cards.  Jeter is coming off a very poor season, and at at 36, is at an age when a decline in abilities is expected.  Barry Bonds aside, players generally do not improve their statistics in the waning years of their careers.  Additionally, Jeter is a type A free agent, meaning that teams would have to sacrifice a first round pick to sign him.  At this point, I think many teams see the folly in signing an aging type A player.  The Braves signed Tom Glavine as a type A player after the 2007 season.  It ended up being a bad signing, with Glavine giving limited value to the Braves, while at the same time, the Braves handed the division rival Mets Ike Davis on a silver platter (the Mets drafted Davis with a pick they were awarded as compensation for the Glavine signing).  On the flip side, Jeter is a Yankee icon, and there is fear on backlash from the fans if they front office fails to ensure that he finishes his career in pinstripes.  What am I hoping for?  I hope the Yankees massively overpay Jeter.  More money for Jeter means less money for players who could actually contribute to the team in the future.

On Monday night, my Colorado Rockies extended the contract of Troy Tulowitzki, adding six years and $119 million to his existing deal.  He had been signed through 2013, with a club option for the 2014 season.  Tulo is now signed through the 2020 season.  While I’m glad to know that the Yankees or Red Sox won’t be snapping up Tulo as a free agent any time soon, lengthy contracts can be worrisome in baseball, where the money is guaranteed.  The deal should serve to put a ceiling on Jeter’s contract.  It would be difficult to argue that a Jeter approaching 40 is worth more than Tulo in his prime.

In a recent edition of Sports Illustrated, I saw some ads for the publication’s annual swimsuit edition, which is now a multimedia experience – not just the magazine, but a calendar, video, and more.  It made me wonder how much of SI’s revenue comes from swimsuit model and how much comes from the coverage of sports?  My favorite sports publication, Sports Weekly, doesn’t have a swimsuit edition, or anything even close to it.  That’s probably a good thing – I really have no interest in seeing Paul White in a Speedo.

It’s the 19th of September, and only two division leaders in baseball have a lead of less than 4 games.  One of the tight races is in the AL East, where the Yankees hold a 1 1/2 game lead over the Devil Rays.  There is a nice consolation price for the loser of that race – the Devil Rays currently hold a 6 1/2 game lead over the Red Sox for the Wild Card.

The other tight race is in the NL West, where the Giants hold a 1/2 game lead over the Padres and a 1 1/2 game lead over the Rockies.  Had the Rockies not squandered a 6-1 lead against the Dodgers on Sunday, this race could be even tighter.  There’s a bit more desperation in the NL West race, because all three teams are a bit behind the Braves in the wild card race (although this could change if the Phillies sweep Atlanta in their series).

All three teams were idle yesterday and return to action in road games today – the Giants against the Cubs, the Padres against the Dodgers, and the Rockies against the Diamondbacks.  This weekend will feature a critical matchup between the Rockies and Giants at Coors Field, while the Padres face NL Central leaders Cincinnati at home. 

In the final week of the season, the Giants will start out with a home series against the Diamondbacks, the Padres will go to Wrigley to face the Cubs, and the Rockies will face the Dodgers at home.  When the calendar flips to October, we’ll see the Rockies traveling to St. Louis to face the always dangerous Albert Pujols and the Cardinals while the Padres and Giants battle in San Francisco.

As you can see, the Cubs, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks will all act as spoilers down the stretch, as they face two of the three division contenders.

Who has the tought row to hoe during the season’s final fortnight?  Well, the Giants get to face the suddenly hot Cubs (winners of six straight) and have to face both the Rockies and Padres.  They do have a three game set against the Diamondbacks that should allow them to pick up some easy wins.

The Padres don’t have a cakewalk either, with series against two division leaders – San Francisco and Cincinnati.  Expect Cincinnati to have the pedal to the metal as they fight for a higher seed in the playoffs.  They are currently the 2 seed and certainly would not want to slip to the 3 seed and lose home field advantage in the first round.

That brings us to the Rockies.  On paper, it’s not a horrible schedule.  They face only one division leader (San Francisco) and those games are at home.  One of their road series is against the Diamondbacks, who are the second worst team in the National League.  They’ll finish with a four game series against a Cardinals team that will likely have nothing to play for.  But on the bad side, the fact that the Padres and Giants finish the season against each other provides an interesting obstacle – if they trail one of the other teams by 2 games with 3 games left to go, it will be impossible for them to make up the gap.  Why?  Because either the Padres or Giants must win at least 2 games in their 3 game series.  Yep – if the Giants lead the Rockies by 2 games and the Padres by 3 games going into the final series, the Rockie would be mathematically eliminated, but the Padres would still be alive.

So, what happens if there is a 3 way tie for the division?  Two of the teams will play an elimination game, with the winner hosting the third team.  The teams will be ranked on their head-to-head records, with the top seed (the Rockies have clinched this) deciding whether they want home field advantage (in both games) or to be the team that waits to face the winner of the first game (but has to travel).

Which is the correct choice?  Teams play better at home than they do on the road, but it’s not a slam dunk to take the home field advantage, since the home team must win two games.  In order for the home team to have the advantage over the team that needs to win just the final road game, there would need to be a 62% probability for the home team to win vs. 38% for the road team (.62*.62 = .3844).  And even though there are a few teams that exceed this rate, it’s also important to note that the home team would need to burn their best available pitcher in the first game, whereas the team-in-waiting would head into the second game fresh and rested.

My gut?  Be the team waiting on the sidelines and take the one road game.

In other (related) news …
My favorite player, Troy Tulowitzki, has been tearing it up lately, with 14 home runs in a 15 game stretch that ended Saturday (he was held without a homer on Sunday).  Tulo had 2 homers in 4 of those games and drove in a stunning 31 games during that stretch.  Hopefully Tulo can kept up the hot hitting down the stretch.

My Rockies were 11 games out of first place on August 22.  At the end of the day on Sunday, they had pulled to within 1 1/2 games of the division leading Padres and Giants – courtesy of a 10 game winning streak.  A loss to San Diego on Monday dropped them 2 1/2 games back – but with 17 games left in the regular season, the Rockies could once again make some noise down the stretch.

As impossible as it seems, Carlos Gonzalez has been overshadowed in recent days by Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulo has reported that his wrist is now feeling completely healthy – and Tulo has provided evidence of this by hitting 9 homers in the last 11 games.  Tulo’s career has been sidetracked slightly by injuries and some slows springs, but he is going to be one of the elite shortstops in the game for years to come.

CarGo’s pursuit of the elusive triple crown also seems unlikely at this point, as a hot stretch by Albert Pujols of the Cardinals has put the home run race out of reach for CarGo – barring a Tuloesque stretch of homers.

With the playoffs in sight, we get very different pictures from the two leagues.  In the American Leagues, it’s a foregone conclusion that the Yankees, Devil Rays, Twins, and Rangers are going to the post-season – although there is a possibility that the White Sox could make some noise in the Central.  The Yankees and Devil Rays are locked in a tight battle for the division lead – the loser will be the wild card.

In the National League, the Reds are the only team that can be very comfortable at this point, holding a 7 game lead against the Cardinals.  The Phillies lead the Braves by a game in the East and the Padres lead the Giants by a half game in the West.  None of these four teams is guaranteed a playoff spot – one of them will definitely miss the playoffs, and a late surge by the Rockies could result in two of those four teams missing the post-season.  The sports world might be focused on football, but there is a lot of great baseball drama yet to unfold.

A bit of drama that will unfold after the season involves Yankees star Derek Jeter.  Although it doesn’t get the attention of A-Rod’s salary, Jeter’s 20M+ salary in 2010 is among the highest in the game.  He is a Yankees icon – accumulating more hits than any other Yankee in history.  His post-season heroics have been replayed again and again and again and again.  Jeter leaving the Yankees would be like Peyton Manning leaving the Colts.  If Jeter ends up in Boston, Yankee fans will be storming Brian Cashman’s estate with torches and pitchforks.

Jeter is a free agent at the end of this season.  How much will the Yankees need to offer him to retain his services?  Will they recognize his obvious PR value and keep him near his current salary?  Or will they realize that he’s a 36 year old player in the midst of the worst season of his career, and make an offer commensurate with those facts?  Can they expect him to bounce back in 2011 – or is 2010 the beginning of the end for Jeter?  The mid-30s are unkind to many baseball players, with marked decline in performance being a common occurence.  If Derek Jeter wasn’t Derek Jeter and was instead more of a nomad (thus not eligible for a “loyalty bonus” from his employer) how much would he get?  $6 million per year?  10?

And the interesting quirk is that since Jeter will be a type A free agent, he could draw minimal interest in free agency.  If the Yankees offer arbitration and Jeter declines it, a team signing him would need for forfeit a first round draft pick to the Yankees when they sign him.  The Mets may have been able to con the Braves into signing  a declining Tom Glavine, but I’m willing to bet that some teams paid attention and came to the realization that forfeiting first round talent for a few years of mediocre performance from a declining star is not a great deal.

On Sunday, I announced the intention to form a worldwide network of local reporters.  I neglected to mention a few things in the original article.  The first is that reporters are free to decline any opportunity for any reason.  The second is that I will attempt to suggest a few relevant questions whenever I give an assignment.  These are intended to be thought starters – you are not forced to answer these questions.  Drop me a line at kosmo@ObservingCasually.com if you have any questions.

Martin Kelly tried his hand at short story writing with The Bomber Pilot.  I like it – give it a read.

My Rockies swept the division-leading Padres over the weekend and nabbed a win against the Reds on Monday.  They are now just 4 1/2 games back in the NL West, thanks to an 11-4 record over the past 15 games.  The Padres have been free-falling as of late, and the Rockies might find themselves battling the Giants (whom they trail by 3 1/2 games) down the stretch.

Carlos Gonzalez has 10 hits in 19 at bats during the 4 games, boosting his league leading batting average to .340.  He trails NL home run leader Albert  Pujols by 4 homers and RBI leader Joey Votto by just a single RBI.  A hot stretch by CarGo would give him a legitimate shot at becoming the first NL player to win the triple crown since Ducky Medwick in 1937.  That year, Medwick paced the senior circuit with a .374 batting average, 31 homers, and 154 RBI.  If Gonzalez does win the triple crown, many people will point to his huge home/road splits.  However, as has been point out several times in the past, Coors Field boosts a typical player’s OPS by about 120 points.  The 450+ point differential enjoyed by CarGo must be due to some non-physical factors.

Today is the day that CarGo’s teammate Troy Tulowitzki will officially become one of his closest pursuers for the batting title.  Due to injury, Tulo falls just short of the threshold for plate appearances required to qualify for the batting title.  After yesterday’s game, Tulo had 424 plate appearances and the required number of PAs was 424.7.  4 plate appearances in today’s game will make him an official qualifier.

Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez finally notched his 18th win on Monday, in his 6th attempt.  After roaring out of the gates to a 14-1 record by the end of June, Ubaldo has run into a bit of a rough stretch, going 3-5 with a 3.98 ERA in the second half.  It hasn’t all been his fault, though.  he has lost the opportunity to win several games because of offensive struggles or bullpen woes.  In the 5 games prior to Monday, Ubaldo was 0-4 with a very good 3.00 ERA.  On the other hand, the offense has taken him off the hook in some games where he hasn’t been at his best (such as yesterday, when he gave up 4 early runs), so I suppose it all balances out in the end.

In NFL news, the Arizona Cardinals parted ways with quarterback Matt Leinart.  The Cardinals expected Leinart to be a cornerstone for them to build around – but in reality, he simply delayed their success by keeping the ball away from Kurt Warner.  Warner retired after last season, meaning that the Cardinals head into the season without their top two quarterbacks from last season.  Derek Anderson will be the starter and will be backed up by rookie Max Hall.

Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis finally ended his holdout with the Jets.  I don’t begrudge professional athletes their money (are they overpaid?), but I despise holdouts.  A contract should be respected as a legally binding agreement.  So what if you outperform the contract – you agreed to a salary and should stick to it.  If you think you’re going to outperform your contract, just sign a one year deal with a tiny signing bonus in anticipation of cashing in with the next deal.  Interestingly, there’s a posion pill in the contract.  Id Revis holds out in the next few years, the 4 year deal becomes a 7 year deal – with the final 3 years at low salaries.  Sure, you might say that a player could still hold out anyway, but this posion pill gives the team considerably more leverage, as the player cannot negotiate with any other team while they are under contract.

Nationals Nation (village?) suffered a huge setback when it was announced that top prospect Stephen Strasburg would need to undergo Tommy John surgery.  The surgery, named for the former pitcher whose career it saved, involves having an elbow ligament replaced with a tendon harvested from elsewhere in the body.  There’s a roughly 90% chance of success, and rehabilitation generally takes a year.  This means that Strasburg will likely be aiming for a return on the opening day of the 2012 season.

Interestingly, some players actually throw a bit harder after the surgery (for a few years) than they did previously – so Strasburg’s fastball might have a bit more kick when he returns.  (Some nut job parents have approached doctors requesting that the surgery be performed on their healthy sons, simply to get this benefit).  While this is obviously a setback for Strasburg, I’m confident that he’ll return as strong as ever in time for the 2012 season.  MLBDepthChart.com has put together a Tommy John Tracker that will track the progress of those slated for the operation.

If you’re in a “keeper” fantasy league and Strasburg’s owner drops him, I’d suggest snapping him up for the long haul.  Similarly, if you can make a trade for pennies on the dollar, go for it.

My Rockies have been alternating hot and cold streaks.  They faced off against the Phillies on Thursday.  A win would have allowed them to climb within 4 ½ games of Philadelphia in the wild card race.  The Rockies got out to an early 7-3 lead, but ended up losing the game 12-11, slipping to 6 ½ games out of the wild card race.

At this point, there seems to be little hope of catching the Phillies in the wild card – but I’m not convinced that the Rockies are out of the division race.  We’re 7 ½ games behind the front-running Padres – but the Padres have been in a free-fall recently, losing seven straight games.  The Rockies began a 3 games series against the Padres on Friday night (after this article was written) – and a sweep would pull the Rockies to within 4 ½ games on the division lead.  A Padres sweep would likely close the curtain on the Rockies’ playoff chances.

If you haven’t been paying attention to Carlos Gonzalez, this would be a good time to start.  CarGo launched his 31^st homer (“car bomb”) on Thursday night.  He leads the National League in batting average (.332) and slugging percentage (.610) and is 5^th in homers.  It’s possible that a hot September could push CarGo to the lead in homers and RBI and allow him to be the first NL triple crown winner since Ducky Medwick.

CarGo has dramatic home/road split (.391 with 24 homers at home vs. .275 with 7 homers on the road) but you can’t just point to Coors Field as the source of his numbers.  Overall, Coors has tended to add about 120 OPS points to a player’s numbers – CarGo’s 2010 differential is nearly 500 points.  I hypothesize that a large mental factor comes into player that allow some players to amplify the effects of their home park and other players to consistently underperform expectations (such as Ryan Howard of the Phillies, who has roughly even career home/road splits despite playing in a hitter’s paradise).  Whatever the reason, a player who can be absolutely dominant in half the games provides considerable value to a team.

Gonzalez’s teammate Troy Tulowitzki sports a .319 batting average, but you won’t see him listed among the league leaders.  That’s because an earlier  injury cost him playing time and is causing Tulo to fall just short of the threshold to qualify for the batting title (3.1 plate appearances for each game his team has played).  Tulo is currently 8 plate appearances short, so expect him to pop up on the list soon.

You might wonder what would happen if a player had a much higher batting average than anyone else in the league, but fell just short of the threshold – would he be denied the batting title?  Nope.  In these cases, “empty” at bats are added to a player’s totals to determine if he is the champion.  For example, Tulowitzki has 114 hits in 357 at bats, for a .319 batting average.  If the season ended at this point, we’d add 8 at bats (and no hits) and recalculate – 114 hits in 365 at bats, for a .312 batting average.  If this was the highest batting average in the league, Tulo would be the batting champion.  If someone else had a .313 batting average, he wouldn’t be the champion.  In either case, he would still be credited with his actual .319 batting average.

The Iowa State Cyclones kicked off the football season on Thursday night against Northern Illinois.  The Cyclones looked good at some point and bad in others.  It was a definite must-win game for a team facing the schedule from hell.  We face road games at Iowa, Texas, and Oklahoma – and face Utah in one of our pre-seasons games.  It’s possible that the team would be better than last year’s 7-6 squad, but emerge with a worse record.

And in my own backyard, the University of Iowa (in-state rivals to my alma mater) locked up head football coach Kirk Ferentz through the year 2020.  His base salary starts at $3,675,000 and he get a longevity bonus that starts at $325,000 and increases each year.  I think Ferentz is a great coach, but this makes no sense to me.  These sorts of deals just give a false sense of security to the fans of the team.  The coach can still bolt for a better job at any time.  The only thing that it really does is make it impossible to fire a coach if things head south – because the school is on the hook for the entire value of the contract.  Hopefully Ferentz will still be around in 2020 and this will be an academic issue.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock – or just don’t care about sports – you know that LeBron James is about to become a free agent.

The 25 year old James is arguably the best player in the NBA. The financial piece of the equation is very easy. Under NBA rules, his current team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, can offer him more money than any other team. If he simply wants the cash, he stays with the Cavs.  The financial negotiations would not be complex.  The Cavaliers would simply write down the maximum salary allowed by NBA rules and wait for LeBron to sign the contract.

Over the course of the past few years, there has been widespread speculation that the New York Knicks would try to snap up James and some other top free agents. In an effort to gain “cap space”, the Knicks have rid themselves of expensive players. In addition to reducing payroll, this has also reduced wins.  The Knicks finished this season with a record of 29-53.

If LeBron picks the Knicks, he’ll be playing in the media capital of the world, and can become an even bigger star than he is now. There’s also the possibility that the Knicks can throw enough money around to build a championship caliber team.

If I were James, though, I’d be very cautious. Throwing money at players doesn’t guarantee that the team will meld into a championship contender. It’s just as likely that the Knicks will end up with a huge payroll and a crappy team.  The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have already proven that they are able to build a contender around him.  Yesterday, they fired Mike Brown – whose .663 winning percentage is tops in Cavaliers history – apparently to make way for LeBron’s choice of coach.  LeBron has a huge amount of influence over the future of the Cavs organization.

In terms of media exposure, I’m really not sure how much more exposure James can get. He’s already the most popular player in the NBA and a cultural icon. What does he really want – his own late night talk show?  At some point, don’t you get to a level of “global icon” that makes your geographic location irrelevant?

Although James may gain a bunch of fans by moving to another city, he might lose a lot of his existing fans.  Certainly Cavalier fans would leave in droves, but so would many other fans around the country.  LeBron is an Ohio kid (from Akron).  Watching him attempt to lead his hometown team to an NBA title is a great story line for me.  If LeBron is trying to lead the Knicks to a title, I’m not nearly as interested.  If he’s playing for Phil Jackson in Chicago (the Bulls are rumored to be courting Jackson) then I would be actively rooting against him.

As you can guess, my advice to LeBron is to stay in Cleveland.  He may make a few less bucks in endorsements, but he’ll be treated like royalty in Cleveland.  He’ll also continue to be just a short car ride away from family and old friends.  How will he be treated in New York if the Knicks plans to rebuild around him fail?  Sometimes being a big fish in a small pond can be the better choice – especially when that team can pay you better and contend for a title.

THE RESIN BAG

The US Supreme Court ruled against the NFL in an anti-trust lawsuit.  The league is being sued by apparel maker American Needle, Inc.  The company alleges that the manner in which the NFL collectively bargains with apparel companies is in violation of anti-trust laws. In the case of American Needle, they had produced hats for a variety of NFL teams before the NFL awarded an exclusive headgear contract to Reebok.  American Needle would prefer that teams could make independent decisions on apparel licensing.  It is important to note that the scope of this case was limited to apparel licensing and does not impact the league’s collective bargaining with players.  The case now goes back to a lower court that had previously ruled against American Needle. 

Former Major League pitcher Jose Lima passed away on Sunday at the age of 37.  In 1999, Lima won 21 games and was named to the All Star team.  In 1998 and 1999, Lima went a combined  37-18 with a 3.64 ERA.  For the rest of his career, he was 52-84.  As an encore to his 1999 campaign, Lima struggled to a 7-16 record with a 6.65 ERA.  His final full season in the majors (2005) was marked by a 5-16 record and a 6.99 ERA.  Through the good times and the bad, Jose Lima appeared to be the happiest guy on the world, declaring it to be “Lima Time” and, in general, acting like a guy who was being paid large sums of money to play a child’s game.  RIP, Jose.  Coincidentally, Lima was on the same Astros pitching staff as Darryl Kile, who died at the age of 33 in 2002.

The Colorado Rockies have been very average so far this year.  After hammering reigning AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke on Sunday, the Rockies went into play on Tuesday with a record of 22-22.  Oddly, they haven’t been more than two games above or below .500 all year.  There are signs that the Rockies could be about to bust out, though.  Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki had been mired in a power slump all year.  After hitting 32 homers last year, he had just a single homer during the first 38 games of the year.  In the last four games, Tulo has hit three homers – all on the road.

Nationals prospect Stephen Strasburg is on the cusp of being called up to the majors.  Delaying the callup this long will allow the Nationals to push back Strasburg’s free agency and arbitration eligibility by a year.  With the Nationals beginning a road trip today, Strasburg’s debut will likely be on June 4th against the Reds in D.C.

With the baseball season just around the corner (really – it is!), here are some things to watch in 2010.  We’ll likely have a few articles on this topic.  The order for these articles will be the ever-popular “whatever happens to pop in my head today”.

The Nationals

All the hoopla was about the signing of Stephen Strasburg, but the Nationals also put a bit of money into the team during free agency.  They didn’t go crazy with the money (15M over 2 years for Jason Marquis being the costliest deal).  Nor did they cost themselves draft picks by signing any Type A free agents.  What they did do is make several low risk moves.  The deal I like best is Chien-Ming Wang signing a 2M deal for 2010.  Wang won’t be healthy enough to pitch until May, following recent surgery.  However, if he can return to the form that saw him go a combined 28-13 over 400+ innings during the 2006 and 2007 seasons, then it’s money well spent.

The gNats also picked up several other guys who could help them.  Ivan Rodriguez behind the dish, Matt Capps in the pen, and Adam Kennedy at 2B are among the guys who could help.  They also have some decent players already in the lineup.  Perhaps this is the year that people realize that Adam Dunn is a fine offensive player who just happen to be weak in the areas that critics like to jump on – strikeouts and batting average.  Seriously, folks, strikeouts just aren’t that big of a deal – and Dunn makes up for his batting average by walking a ton.  Oh, yeah, and he hits lots of homers.  (Let’s not talk about his defense.

Am I suggesting that the Nationals will make the playoffs?  Holy crap – of course not.  But they’ll no longer be the laughingstock of the league.  That honor will fall upon the Pirates some unknown team.

The Rockies

Hey, I’m a Rockies fan,  so of course I think the Rockies are a story to watch.  But, really, they ARE a story to watch this year.  Prior to 2007, the Rockies had made the playoffs exactly once – in 1995.  In the last three seasons, they have made the playoffs twice.  Many fans tend to write them off as a fluke because both seasons were characterized by very slow starts and red-hot second halves.  If the Rockies can put together a strong wire-to-wire season in 2010, more people may look at them as legitimate perennial playoffs contenders.

There are lots of young players to watch with the Rockies.  If Troy Tulowitzki can avoid the disastrously slow that plagued him last year, he may make a run at an MVP award.  Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ian Stewart should all take another step forward.  Youngster Jhoulys Chacin may also crack the rotation this year.  Starting pitcher Jeff Francis will be returning from injury.

The rise of the Rockies could be aided by the divorce of Frank and Jamie McCourt.  The McCourts own the Dodgers – and we all saw what happened to the Padres in the aftermath of the divorce of their owners, John and Becky Moores.

The Cardinals

Not only did re-signing Matt Holliday make the Cardinals a force to be reckoned with in the near future, but it also sent a strong message to Albert Pujols that management is truly interested in having a strong team around him (and thus making it more likely that they will be able to re-sign him).  I’ve been impressed with Pujols since seeing him during his brief stint with the Peoria Chiefs (low A).  Making Albert Pujols happy is a good idea.

On the field, Pujols and Holliday are a fearsome combination in the 3-4 spots in the lineup and Carpenter and Wainright similarly strike fear in opposing hitters at the top of the rotation.  I’m struggling to find a scenario that doesn’t have the Cardinals winning the NL Central, barring a major injury.  Sure, the Cubs might be capable of a run, but you know they’ll find some way to mess it up.

Story Time

The third quarter of the year is winding down.  With it comes the deadline for finishing up the work for volume 2 of “The Fiction of Kosmo”.  Consolidating the short stories into the document isn’t difficult – but writing the longer, capstone story is quite a bit of work.  I strive for a story of at least 10,000 words for this story.  The capstone story for volume one (Key Relationships) took more than a week of work (in various small pieces of spare time) to complete.  Hopefully I can finish the new story in a similar amount of time.  Currently, I have fewer than a thousand words written (just the ending), so I need to buckle down and finish the story.  This might result in me skipping a few article in the course of the next two weeks.  I’ll try to make the story worth the wait.

Rockies Update

Friday night, the Rockies had their wild card lead cut just 2 1/2 games.  With wins on Saturday and Sunday, couple with Dodgers wins over the Giants, the Rockies now stand 4 1/2 games clear of their nearest pursuers.  With just 12 games remaining in the season, this is a solid lead, but not insurmountable, especially with series left against the first place Cardinals and Dodgers.  It feels weird to be a fan of the team that is being chased.  In 2007, the Rockies were behind until the tail end of the season.  The other times my teams have made the playoffs (1984 and 1989 Cubs, 1995 Rockies) are too far in the distant past to remember the race with any clarity.

Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki deserves some MVP consideration.  After a dreadful start to the season, Tulo turned around his season at nearly exactly the same time that the Rockies turned around the season.  It is doubtful that this is a coincidence.  Tulo now stands just one homer short of reaching 30 for the season.

Annie Le

The authorities seem to be keeping a pretty good lid on the information in this case, but theories are being bandied about.  Apparently, suspect Raymond Clark had warned Annie Le that the cages that housed her mice were too dirty.  While I agree that cleanliness is a good thing, is it really possible that Annie Le was killed because there were too much mouse poop in the cages?

The Lost Symbol

The Lost Symbol, the latest book by Da Vinci Code author Dan Brown, hit the shelves on Thursday.  My daughter loves the book.  She wanted me to read from the book.  I complied, and read the dust jacket and a few other short snippets.

Why didn’t I read more of the book to her?  Well, she’s only two, and the material might be a bit too mature for her.  Honestly, I think she likes the cover.

Lazy Man vs MonaVie

Lazy Man of Lazy Man and Money is a friend of The Soap Boxers.  A benefactor, actually, as he is providing free hosting and invaluable technical support and advice.  Lazy has been critical of the MonaVie corporation, questioning whether or not the product actually provides the benefits that the company and MonaVie distributors claim.

Lazy has been sent not one, but two, cease and desist letters.  When The Consumerist questioned MonaVie, they agreed that the first letter was incorrect.  They subsequently sent a second cease and desist later.  The complaint?  That Lazy Man and Money was using the trademarked term (MonaVie) in the meta keywords for Lazy’s article on the company.  Considering how meta keywords are using by search engines (to create the blurb you see listed in the search results, but typically not used to determine the page’s ranking) it seems perfectly natural to use the company name in the meta keywords.  In fact, it would be a bit strange to NOT use it.

Lazy has written about MonaVie on several occasions (see the complete list here).  The original article has attracted a pretty incredible 3300+ comments in the course of the last 18 months (note the comment at the bottom about archived comments).  By comparison, The Soap Boxers sometimes gets 5 comments on an article …

Spam Comments

Lots of porno-spam in the comments lately (all of which have been caught by my spam filter).  I guess I should be proud of the fact that the blog is successful enough to attract spammers?